In Week 14, I cautioned people not to fall victim to the "must-win." Often, value can be found betting against the team perceived to be in a must-win situation.
There were five games that I recognized as falling under that umbrella, and betting against those teams would have resulted in average closing value of 1.4 points per game and a 3-2 record against the spread. Not too bad.
I'm going to keep with the theme in Week 15, leading up to weeks 16 and 17, the most prominent time each season to find value in these must-win spots. In fact, since 1990, betting against teams that would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in Weeks 16 and 17 has yielded a 63% win rate. I'm not going to sit here and guarantee winners, but that speaks to the overvaluation of these teams in the marketplace historically. Here are the games that I will refer to as must-wins in Week 15:
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 40) at Washington Redskins
This point spread was Eagles -6 at some books before Philadelphia kicked off Monday Night Football and salvaged an ugly, come-from-behind victory over the lowly Giants. The Eagles' performance on national television didn't help our cause now that oddsmakers reopened the game a point-and-a-half lower.
Betting analysis: The 6-7 Eagles wouldn't be in the playoff picture if it weren't for the fact that the Cowboys currently lead the NFC East with the same record. They're playing mediocre football with must-win perception against a Redskins team that has covered three in a row and won two of those outright. I don't think we'll see the +6 pop up again in the market, but with my projection at Redskins +3.8 (which accounts for Alshon Jeffery being out), it isn't a bet at the current number. I'd buy at +6.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 40.5)
Do you believe in Mitchell Trubisky's newfound confidence after he beat the Cowboys 31-24 last week? Do you believe in the must-win? Then the Bears +4.5 in Week 15 is for you! To be fair, the market move agrees. This was +6.5 over the weekend, before the Packers' 20-15 win over the Redskins.
Betting analysis: I was on Chicago +3 against Dallas, and I think in general the Bears have been slightly undervalued in the market their past three contests. For that reason, combined with the fact that a playoff appearance is at stake, I'm not surprised to see the move down. My projection is Packers -4.3, however, and maybe my recent bias toward Chicago is driving the engine here, but I can't muster up a bet on Green Bay at this price.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 36.5)
I have given #BillsMafia enough flak this season about being a generally overrated team. The Bills played a historically weak schedule to start the season and have issues defending the run, and I thought they were being overvalued in the betting market because of their record. No more! In similar fashion, the Steelers aren't in a concrete must-win situation this Sunday, but with the Texans and Titans each sitting at 8-5 as well and one of them taking a loss when they meet this week, Pittsburgh's securing a win would do wonders for its playoff chances, especially with a Week 17 road game in Baltimore on the horizon. There isn't a worse setup that exists in 2019 than facing the Ravens on the road in a true must-win scenario.
Betting analysis: Where does that leave us in Week 15? I think the opener this week at PK was closer to fair (I have Buffalo winning the game 51.2% of the time). The +2s in the market offer some value on the Bills side, and what I chose to do early this week was use Bills +8 in six-point teaser legs. At the time, I was able to scoop the Rams +8, which is no longer a viable option through the key numbers of three and seven, but the Cardinals and Chargers to +8.5 also fall under basic teaser strategy worth pairing with the Bills this week.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 48) at Arizona Cardinals
The Browns were bet against the most heavily in the same must-win situation in Week 14. A move from +8.5 to +6.5 before kickoff is extremely significant. It paid to get the best of the number this time in their 27-19 win over Cincinnati, but they were outplayed in just about every area besides the final score. The Bengals converted 27 first downs to the Browns' 17. The Bengals gained 451 yards to the Browns' 333. The biggest swing was a pick-six that Andy Dalton threw that went 61 yards the other way late in the first quarter.
Betting analysis: The Browns are by no means playing at a high level, but they've benefited from playing the Bengals and Dolphins in two of the past three weeks to stay in the playoff hunt. It's probably safe to put the Cardinals in that same tier of bad NFL teams this season, but they grade out the best of the bunch. My projection is Browns -1.2, so unless +3s show, I won't be betting against them this time around. I would caution readers from betting on them at an inflated number, however, and I think the Cardinals in teaser legs are the route to go.