When the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, it will not be a battle with high stakes for the playoff race. The loser of this game is officially eliminated from the postseason; the winner could be eliminated too depending on results elsewhere.
But there's always something to play for in the NFL, and every game matters in some way. The Chargers will be playing to salvage their season and possibly head coach Anthony Lynn's job. The Jaguars will be trying to figure out if Gardner Minshew should be their quarterback of the future. And for fans watching the game -- between fantasy football and some betting action -- there's always something hanging in the balance.
Upset Watch: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Minshew is back as Jacksonville's starting quarterback, and based on this year's stats, that's good news for the Jaguars. Minshew's 2019 numbers are better than Nick Foles' by both QBR (43.3 to 34.3) and passing DVOA (-1.2% to -19.8%). DJ Chark has emerged as Jacksonville's No. 1 wide receiver this year, and he's gained 16.2 yards per completion on passes from Minshew compared to 12.3 yards per completion on passes from Foles.
Minshew will face less pressure in this game than usual. That may sound like a strange statement about a defense that features Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram as edge rushers, but the Chargers are having trouble getting pressure from elsewhere. Part of the reason is that they blitz less than any other defense, just 17.8% of dropbacks. So the Chargers' pressure rate this year is 26.7%, 23rd in the NFL. Sports Info Solutions has counted Bosa with 42 hurries (fifth in the NFL) and Ingram with 30, but no other Chargers defender has more than 10.
One thing the Jaguars need to do more is throw play-action passes. They use play action on a league-low 13% of pass plays, even though they have the league's biggest gap between performance with play action (9.6 yards per pass) and without (6.2).
Jacksonville's rank in rushing DVOA matches Los Angeles' rank in run defense. Both units are 24th. But there are some particular situations where running should be advantageous for the Jaguars. Jacksonville is ninth running the ball on third down while the Chargers are 30th stopping third-down runs. That includes not just short-yardage but also draws and other runs in medium-length yards-to-go situations.
On the other side of the ball, run defense is a significant problem for the Jaguars. They rank 16th in pass defense but 31st in run defense, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers. And the Jaguars just lost linebacker Myles Jack, who leads the team in both total run tackles and successful run tackles this season.
Part of the issue against the run is tackling, as the Jaguars rank 31st in the league with 115 broken tackles on defense. But that's not a problem they have by themselves; the Chargers' defense is 28th with 102 broken tackles.
The Chargers' running game has been very inconsistent this season. They rank 25th in run offense DVOA, but that's largely because of a four-game period in the middle of the season when the Chargers averaged 2.3 yards per carry. Take those games out, and the Chargers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry and would rank 11th in run offense.
In part because of the trouble they've had with the run, the Jaguars are one of the rare defenses that are actually better against shotgun formations than against conventional under-center formations. That's a good split to have against a Chargers team that goes shotgun 72% of the time (10th in the NFL).
The Jaguars are going to bring more pass pressure than the Chargers. They rank 11th with a pressure rate of 28.8%. The Jaguars have three defenders with at least 20 hurries: Calais Campbell with 32, rookie Josh Allen with 22 and Yannick Ngakoue with 20. However, they'll need to change up their pass-rush strategy a little bit. Right now, the Jaguars are a top-12 blitz team at 32.9% of dropbacks. But Philip Rivers is blitzed on just 20% of dropbacks, the lowest figure in the league. That's partly because he's very good against the blitz, with a 77.7 QBR (appropriately, seventh in the NFL) and 8.3 net yards per pass (third).
The Jaguars rank third in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, which will be tough on a Chargers offense that depends so much on Keenan Allen. Allen has 114 pass targets this year, sixth in the league; by comparison, No. 2 wide receiver Mike Williams has been thrown the ball just 69 times. Who's responsible for this? Not necessarily who you think. Surprisingly, Tre Herndon (the replacement for Jalen Ramsey) has better charting stats than veteran A.J. Bouye this year. Herndon has allowed 7.5 yards per pass with a 54% success rate in coverage. Bouye has allowed 9.2 yards per pass (62nd out of 73 qualifying cornerbacks) with a 46% success rate.
Then again, the best strategy against the Chargers might be for the Jaguars to change up what they usually do on defense. Based on new ESPN coverage metrics (built from the NFL's Next Gen Stats), the Jaguars primarily play single-high safety man coverage. They run some kind of zone coverage on just 43% of passes, 27th in the league. Philip Rivers this season has a 62.8 QBR against man coverage, but his 35.8 QBR against zone ranks 30th of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
One other note: look for this game to play very slowly, perhaps keeping the total score down. The Chargers rank 30th in situation-neutral pace, while the Jaguars rank 31st.
Cover Watch: Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
This Cover Watch is primarily about the Packers; DVOA does not believe the Packers are as good as their 9-3 record. Right now, the Packers rank ninth overall, but there's a big gap between the top eight and Green Bay at No. 9. The Packers (and Buffalo Bills) are among the 10 worst 9-3 teams we've tracked through 35 years of data. Green Bay has outscored opponents just 289-255 this year, which normally would result in a 7-5 team. The Packers are 5-1 in games decided by eight points or less. They've also been outgained by opponents on average 6.1 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play.
The problem is less offense -- where the Packers rank seventh in DVOA, even though Aaron Rodgers is only 14th in QBR -- and more defense, where the Pack is 22nd in the league. Kevin King has been a real weakness at cornerback, ranked 69th among 73 qualifying cornerbacks with 11.1 yards allowed per target, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. And the Packers struggle to stop the run, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA and dead last in adjusted line yards on defense. Yes, Washington has the worst offense in the league at this point, but it's better running the ball than passing and could pound Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson to keep things close.
Meanwhile, the Washington defense has quietly been improving over the course of the year. For the full season, Washington now ranks 19th in defensive DVOA. Since Week 6, the Redskins are tied for 11th, so the defense could somewhat corral Rodgers and keep this game within two touchdowns.
Upset Watch appears each week on ESPN+ Chalk, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of at least three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.