What's in store for this week in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 11 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 11 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (3-2 last week, 27-22-2 overall)
The Bear (1-3 last week, 22-20-1 overall)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (-16, 46)
The Bear: The Yellow Jackets have improved throughout the year, especially over the past couple of weeks -- on the defensive side of the football -- against Pitt and Miami, but the offense isn't up to speed yet. Virginia got a brilliant game from Bryce Perkins in the win at North Carolina, but I can see a bit of a slow start in an early kickoff for the Cavaliers, who are two wins away from a berth in the ACC title game. Virginia has five games with multiple turnovers, and half of the turnovers that the Cavaliers have forced this season came in one game, against Duke. Virginia has struggled against the run recently too, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Jackets hang around here after the Cavs posted a season high in yards and a turnover-free game last week.
Pick: Georgia Tech +16
UAB Blazers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4.5, 50.5)
The Bear: I don't get the line move here at all. Our FPI numbers have Southern Miss by about nine here. Also factor in an off week last week for the Golden Eagles -- allowing some injuries to running backs to heal -- and it likely would help some red zone issues they've had. UAB was blown out by Tennessee and likely lost QB Tyler Johnston III in the process, adding to the list of Blazer injuries. UAB has played the worst schedule in the FBS, and on the road here versus a team that has lost to Alabama, at Mississippi State and at Louisiana Tech, the Blazers might be up against it.
Pick: Southern Miss -4.5
Temple Owls (-2, 49) at South Florida Bulls
The Bear: Our numbers have South Florida as about a 4-point favorite here. Give the Bulls credit; sitting at 1-3 and looking like the season was headed downhill, they rolled off three wins in four games to keep hope alive for a bowl game. But a win here is a must, as they will have to pull upsets of Cincinnati, Memphis or UCF, as well, to get there. Temple could use a win after consecutive blowout losses to SMU and UCF, but the Owls didn't stop the run at all in those games, and USF has run the ball very well as of late.
Pick: South Florida +2
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-6, 63.5)
The Bear I figured I would talk myself onto Alabama by Saturday and indeed I have. Despite the trends and recent struggles when Alabama lays less than 7 points, I can't resist taking the most talent-rich roster in the country, which has been hearing about how LSU and Joe Burrow will come into Tuscaloosa and put a number on the Tide. Alabama has controlled the trenches in the series lately and I sense will use that offensive line to help its defense here. And it's still an LSU team that's scored just 26 points in the last 4 meetings with Bama. Some bets you just have to be willing to lose and this is one of them.
Pick: Alabama -6
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans (-14.5, 45.5)
The Bear Yes I know Michigan State has been terrible as a double-digit favorite. And yes I know the Spartan offense has struggled mightily vs Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin - and will be shorthanded this week too. But aren't we overvaluing Illinois here just a bit? The Illini have underdog with fleas written all over them off wins over Rutgers, a shorthanded Purdue team and the semi-miracle win over Wisconsin. Could the Illini win or at the very least cover, sure? But I've gone from staying away from this one to being on the home favorite
Pick: Michigan State -14.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 47.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Bear There haven't been very many Minnesota backers this week, but I'm gonna bite. Everyone just wants to focus on the negatives with Minnesota - all the backup QBs they have faced, all the comebacks vs inferior teams, all the poor Big Ten opponents. How about we focus on the fact the Gophers have two very good WR, a big offensive line, a deep group of RB and are feeling totally disrespected. I like Penn State, but this is still a team which has been outgained by 4 of 7 FBS opponents, struggled to put up 300 yards each of the last three weeks and get can very conservative on offense. I would expect at the very least a very competitive effort from Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota +6.5
Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (-2.5, 64)
The Bear: After losing to its rival, seeing its head coach fired, being called out and losing its best DL, what better time to hop on the FSU bus? BC's defense is not very good and Cam Akers should run wild against a team that's allowed 48 on this field to Kansas.
Pick: FSU +2.5
Baylor Bears (-2, 47.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: I'm going back in on a TCU game after losing with the Horned Frogs last week. History says 8-0 or better teams on the road favored by a field goal or less against an unranked team fare pretty well (see Bear Bytes below). And I would expect Baylor to play a much sharper game than it did last week against West Virginia, despite the looming showdown with Oklahoma next week. The expectation is that TCU quarterback Max Duggan will play after being injured last week, but I would expect him to be shy of 100 percent. And if he can't go or reinjures himself, the TCU QB situation gets even muddier. After two earlier wins this year by a field goal or less, Baylor bounced back immediately to post a pair of 17-plus-point wins. It might not be a 17-point win, but Matt Rhule should have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Pick: Baylor -2
Stanford Steve: Watching the end of TCU's loss last week, I noticed Duggan went down with an awful-looking injury to his throwing hand, so his status is unknown. His backup, Mike Collins, also was injured in the last couple of minutes. The Frogs also had another QB transfer this week. So, if Duggan does play, I don't expect him to be 100 percent. I was on Baylor last week, and the Bears put forth their worst effort of the year and were fortunate to beat West Virginia, not even coming close to covering the 17.5 points they were favored by. I think the Bears, with the extra days of prep after playing on a Thursday night, will be ready for this road test. I'll lay the points with the road favorite.
Pick: Baylor -2. Baylor 27, TCU 17.
Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 48)
Stanford Steve: Just really like the situation here. Louisville is off a bye with a head coach who I trust a lot. "The U" is coming off an impressive win over rival Florida State in Tallahassee. Letdown spot for Miami? I think so.
Pick: Louisville +6.5. Miami 24, Louisville 23.
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (PK, 42)
Stanford Steve: The Vols come in off two wins in which they scored a combined 71 points. The Wildcats are off a bye and will bring a ferocious defense, along with a seriously hostile atmosphere. Plus, if Mark Stoops really wants the Florida State job, a win here would help that cause immensely.
Pick: Kentucky PK. Kentucky 21, Tennessee 17.
Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-12, 48)
Stanford Steve: The Cowboys head to the "Smurf Turf" a week after losing starting QB Sean Chambers. I don't like the matchup for the Pokes here. I will provide you some useless information though. Broncos head coach Bryan Harsin allowed freshman QB Hank Bachmeier to meet with the media for the first time this week. Not one question asked of him was about this game.
Pick: Boise State -12. Boise State 31, Wyoming 14.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $80.03.
BYU -900
SMU -2000
Wisconsin -400
San Diego State -1100
UCF -850
Clemson -8000
The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines, parlays, round robins
South Florida +105
Florida State +110
Louisville +205
Duke +265
Wyoming +400
Stanford Steve's four-team, 14-point teaser
I'm not sure I want to take the favorites and the over separately, so we have this:
Clemson Tigers (-31.5, 53.5) at NC State Wolfpack
You think Dabo Swinney will have his team's attention after the College Football Playoff rankings released earlier this week had the Tigers at No. 5? It's the first time since 2014 that they haven't been in top four. The team that always finds a way to punch in a score late might just try to make sure they punch in a couple of more.
Prediction: Clemson 51, NC State 10.
UMass Minutemen at Army Black Knights (-34, 62.5)
Just because.
Prediction: Army 51, UMass 14.
Pick: Clemson -17.5 and over 39.5, Army -20 and over 48.5.
Stay-away games
The Bear
Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5, 39.5)
I strongly suggest watching what could be an offensive masterpiece of a game. But I highly advise not wagering on it.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5, 52.5)
You deserve whatever you get for getting involved here.
Stanford Steve
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 60) at West Virginia Mountaineers
Lubbock at Morgantown? No thanks.
Bear Bytes
All you need to know about Alabama-LSU
The last time Alabama was favored by less than seven points at home was for the 2011 LSU game, which the second-ranked Crimson Tide lost 9-6 as 5-point favorite vs. No. 1 LSU. As of Thursday, Alabama was a 6.5-point favorite for Saturday's matchup.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been less than a 7-point favorite four times. The Tide has lost three of the games outright and pushed the other.
2011: -5 vs. LSU, lost 9-6
2010: -4 vs. Auburn, lost 28-27
2007: -3.5 vs. Georgia, lost 26-23
2007: -3 vs. Arkansas, won 41-38
And the past six times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-3 straight up, and they covered only once.
2018: -5.5, vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
In the past 40 years, there have been five regular-season games between the AP Nos. 1 and 2 in which the AP No. 1 was an underdog. The AP No. 1 won outright all five times, including LSU as a 5-point 'dog at Alabama in 2011.
2011: No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama (-5), won 9-6
2006: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 2 Texas (-2.5), won 24-7
1989: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Michigan (-1), won 24-19
1988: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Southern California (-4), won 27-10
1985: No. 1 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan (-3), won 12-10
LSU is averaging 46.8 points per game this season, but the Tigers have had trouble putting up points against Alabama recently.
Past three years: 10 total points scored by LSU vs. Bama
Past four years: 26 points
Past five years: 39 points
Past six years: 56 points
Post-Florida State letdown is real
Miami is 1-5 against the spread (ATS), with four outright losses, the week after playing Florida State over the past six years.
Tough to lay points with Spartans
Since the start of last year, Michigan State has been a favorite of at least 14 points seven times. MSU is 1-6 ATS in those seven games, including an outright loss to Arizona State earlier this year as a 15.5-point favorite.
Iowa not a good road 'dog
In Iowa's past 15 games as an underdog, the Hawkeyes are 4-11 ATS with three outright wins. All three wins came when Iowa was a 'dog of at least seven points (+7 vs. Mississippi State in a bowl game last year, +20.5 vs. Ohio State in 2017 and +21 vs. Michigan in 2016). However, in Iowa's past seven games as a road underdog, the Hawkeyes are both 0-7 straight up and ATS. The last time Iowa won as a road underdog came in 2016 at Minnesota.
Bad spot again for Arkansas?
Under Chad Morris, Arkansas has lost three of five games against Group of Five opponents, including two at home; one came earlier this year as a 19.5-point favorite vs. San Jose State.
Bet on Baylor?
In the past 40 years, there have been nine teams 8-0 or better favored by a field goal or less on the road against an unranked team. Those nine teams have gone 7-2. The last such game came in 2015, when 11-0 Iowa won 28-20 at Nebraska as a 2-point favorite. This is the spot Baylor is in this week.
Historic day in Minneapolis
This is the first time since 1985 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent. That year, Lou Holtz's 20th-ranked Golden Gophers lost 23-19 to No. 9 Ohio State. It's the first time since 1961 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent in November. No. 5 Minnesota beat No. 7 Purdue 10-7 that year. And it's the first time since 1968 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-5 team. No. 16 Minnesota lost 29-20 to No. 2 USC that year.