What's in store for this week in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 10 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 10 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (4-3 last week, 24-20-2 overall)
The Bear (3-1 last week, 21-17-1 overall)
Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-6.5, 64)
The Bear: The Buffaloes finally have a healthy group of wide receivers. And they nearly pulled the upset of Southern California last Friday in Boulder -- and just might have if coach Mel Tucker didn't get super conservative and punt from well within plus territory. The Colorado defense is clearly lagging behind the offense, but while UCLA running back Joshua Kelley appears fully healthy, quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson can turn it over. Meanwhile, the Bruins' defense hasn't exactly proved to be a force, and it will have to deal with the best unit on the field -- the Colorado offense. It's good to see the Bruins rip off a couple of wins after it looked like their season was heading downhill, but despite those wins, I'll be taking the points here, as UCLA already has lost as a home favorite versus San Diego State and Oregon State.
Pick:
TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3, 59.5)
The Bear: The Cowboys usually are a terrible proposition as a Big 12 favorite or off an upset win (see the Bear Bytes below for further detail). Well, they fill both roles here and face a TCU team that played its best game of the year last week against Texas and an offense that is getting better as quarterback Max Duggan continues to grow. Yes, Oklahoma State has the super offensive trio, but it turns the ball over far too much for my liking, and the Horned Frogs' defense was able to get four picks from Sam Ehlinger last week. And defensively, you never know what you're going to get. Yes, TCU has Baylor next week, but I don't see this shaping up as a flat spot for them. Now maybe the offense will go on the road and sputter like it did in Manhattan and Ames, but I'm on TCU here.
Pick: TCU +3
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (-10.5, 60)
The Bear: Tulane was drilled by Memphis two weeks ago and couldn't dig itself out of a big hole last week vs Navy. However the Green Wave should have both Bradwell and Dauphine back at RB and that's great news for its offense. Have to wonder how much Tulsa has in the tank after another gut wrenching loss. After losing to SMU in similar fashion, the Golden Hurricane were rolled by Navy the following week. And this now seemingly healthy Tulane offense could be just as difficult to stop.
Pick: Tulane -10.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1.5, 67.5) at UL Monroe Warhawks
The Bear: The idle week was welcomed by ULM, which still has a feasible path to bowl eligibility, but a win this week is likely. ULM lost 52-7 in its last game, so one would expect the Warhawks to play with a bit more urgency. Last year after an idle week, ULM beat a good Georgia Southern team by 19 and had almost 600 yards and after a blowout loss at Ole Miss, came back to win at Coastal Carolina. So Matt Viator has done a good job getting his team to respond when they've needed a bounce back type effort. I tried beating Arkansas State last week, to no avail, but the ULM offense is much better than the one Texas State brought to Jonesboro and the last time Arkansas State played a road game it allowed 700 yards to Georgia Southern.
Pick: UL Monroe +1.5
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-3.5, 46.5)
Stanford Steve: This game just isn't what it used to be, but these teams still do not like each other. My partner on the Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast, Chris Fallica, points out that the favorite in this series is 3-11 against the spread (ATS) in the past 14 games. The Canes are an underdog for the second straight week, as they pulled off the upset last week versus Pitt. I think the Miami D travels well to Tallahassee. I'll take the points.
Pick: Miami +3.5. Miami 23, Florida State 21.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears (-17.5, 56)
Stanford Steve: I really like the situation for Baylor here. The Bears have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, and Matt Rhule has been able to keep his team grounded thus far, knowing it has games coming up against Oklahoma and Texas in back-to-back weeks. The Bears also were completely embarrassed last year when they went to Morgantown on a Thursday night. It was Bears quarterback Charlie Brewer's worst performance of his career, as he was benched in the second quarter after throwing three interceptions in a 58-14 loss. This Mountaineers team is not nearly as good as it was last year, and it is walking into a tough spot. I'll lay the points.
Pick: Baylor -17.5. Baylor 41, West Virginia 17.
Navy Midshipmen (-27, 54) at UConn Huskies
Stanford Steve: Because you have to take the home team at "The Rent" on Friday night.
Pick: UConn +27. Navy 38, UConn 17.
Stanford Steve's picks to go over the total
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-3, 56.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
This one will be based on whether both teams have their best offensive players (Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez and Purdue WR Rondale Moore) healthy for this one, but I still respect both coaching staffs and expect the teams to score enough points even though they both have been decimated by injuries.
Pick: Over 56.5. Nebraska 31, Purdue 30.
Liberty Flames (-23, 69.5) at UMass Minutemen
Just because.
Pick: Over 69.5. Liberty 48, UMass 24.
Stay-away games
The Bear
Michigan Wolverines (-21, 55.5) at Maryland Terrapins
I want to take the Terps here, I really do. But they are riddled with injuries and will go with either a third-string QB or a confidence-shaken Josh Jackson. And you know Mike Locksley would love to beat Josh Gattis. The Wolverines are coming off a stretch when they nearly completed a great comeback at Penn State and posted a dominant win over Notre Dame, and they have Michigan State next on the slate. This screams flat spot. But I just can't get there.
Boston College Eagles at Syracuse Orange (-3, 59.5)
There are plenty of other games to bet on. I would skip right past this one.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7.5, 59) at Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas just got beaten to the tune of 99-17 over the past two weeks against Alabama and Auburn. The Bulldogs have lost four straight, all by double digits. If you can guess who will show up here, congratulations.
Stanford Steve
Boston College Eagles at Syracuse Orange (-3, 59.5)
I liked it better when these two teams played hoops and Bill Curley was eating up J.B. Reafsnyder.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 wins $75.19.
Appalachian State -850
Baylor -1000
UCF -1800
Tennessee -500
Auburn -1400
Louisiana -2000
The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Miami +140
TCU +130
Colorado +220
UNLV +280
Kansas +190
Virginia +110
Purdue +130
Bear Bytes
Take the week off
This is the first time since Week 4 of the 1996 season that none of the top three teams in the AP poll are in action.
Which big favorite will lose this week?
Over each of the past three Saturdays, at least one team favored by more than 18 points or more lost outright.
Oct. 26: No. 5 Oklahoma (-23.5) at Kansas State, L
Oct. 19: No. 22 Missouri (-21) at Vanderbilt, L
Oct. 19: Miami (-18.5) vs. Georgia Tech, L
Oct. 19: No. 6 Wisconsin (-30.5) at Illinois, L
Oct. 12: No. 3 Georgia (-20.5) vs. South Carolina, L
Oct. 12: Toledo (-27) at Bowling Green, L
A case for SMU
Since 2010, there have been five teams that entered a regular-season game 8-0 or better and were an underdog against a squad with at least one loss. Four of the five covered, and three of the five won outright.
2017: Miami vs. Notre Dame (-3.5), won by 33
2015: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor (-2.5), lost by 10
2014: Mississippi State at Alabama (-9.5), lost by 5
2012: Ohio State at Wisconsin (-2), won by 7
2010: Auburn at Alabama (-4), won by 1
SMU is a 6-point underdog at Memphis.
Feeling ILL?
Illinois currently is a 20.5-point favorite over Rutgers. The last time the Illini were this big of a favorite in a Big Ten game was in 2010, when the they lost outright as a 21-point favorite at home to 1-9 Minnesota.
Blaze a trail
Since 2017, UAB has been an underdog 12 times, covering eight of the games and winning seven outright. However, the two times UAB was a 'dog versus an SEC team, the Blazers failed to cover: +17.5 at Texas A&M last year and +11 in 2017 at Florida.
Good week to fade Oklahoma State?
Since 2012, Oklahoma State has been favored six times the week following an outright upset. Mike Gundy's team typically has struggled the following week, losing three of the games outright and going just 1-5 ATS.
2018: OSU (-6.5) at TCU, lost by 7
2018: OSU (-5.5) at Baylor, lost by 4
2016: OSU (-12) vs. Texas Tech, won by 1
2015: OSU (-13) at Iowa State, won by 4
2015: OSU (-33.5) vs. Kansas , won by 48
2013: OSU (-10) vs. Oklahoma, lost by 9
Oklahoma State is 2-11 ATS with nine outright losses in its past 13 Big 12 games as a favorite (4-15 ATS in past 19).
Gators a live 'dog under Dan Mullen?
Florida has been an underdog six times under Mullen. The Gators won four of the games outright. One of the two they did not? Last year as a 7-point underdog in a 19-point loss to Georgia.
Tough spot for Utah?
Since October 2016, there have been eight top-10 teams that were less than a 5-point favorite on the road against an unranked team. Those eight teams went 1-7 straight up. One of those loses came last month, when No. 10 Utah fell 30-23 at unranked Southern California as a 3.5-point favorite. Four of the seven losers lost by at least 14 points. Utah travels to Washington and is a 3-point underdog.
Sooner or later
Oklahoma's loss last week at Kansas State was the Sooners' fifth defeat as a 20-point favorite over the past 10 years. No other team has lost more than three times as a 20-point favorite in that span. OU is 46-5 (.902) as a 20-point favorite. For comparison, Alabama is 70-0 as a 20-point favorite, Ohio State 55-1, Oregon 49-3 and Clemson 43-2 during that span. Only Virginia Tech (.880) has a worse win percentage over that span among teams that have been a 20-point favorite 20 times.
Worst win percentage as 20-point favorite since 2009 (minimum of 20 games):
Virginia Tech 22-3 (.880)
Oklahoma 46-5 (.902)
Arkansas 21-2 (.913)
Texas 25-2 (.926)
Wisconsin 41-3 (.932)
Give 'em Hel!
Entering the 2019 campaign, Southern California was 1-12 outright and 2-11 ATS as an underdog under Clay Helton. But in three games as an underdog this season, USC has covered two and won outright as a small home 'dog versus Utah.