Week 10 betting lookahead: Bleak outlook for Notre Dame

College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.

In Week 10, we pick a side in the Sunflower Showdown, review the plan for a bubble-burst Notre Dame and identify the least-rested team in the NCAA.

All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.

Portfolio checkup

Which teams we're buying or selling and why.

Buy: Kansas Jayhawks

The enthusiasm surrounding the 2019 Jayhawks stems from a confluence of factors. Kansas hired a head coach with a national championship ring. Les Miles told the administration what championship programs need, and for the first time in a long time, the university is stepping up to provide it.

Miles has pushed some of the right buttons. He couldn't coax an A-list staff to Lawrence, but he used his credibility to get the coaches and players aligned and improving. He succeeded in making the team tougher and more physical, evident in the Jayhawks' road ambush of a Boston College squad known for toughness. But the biggest decision Miles has made was replacing offensive coordinator Les Koenning with analyst Brent Dearmon, who was handed quarterback coaching duties along with playcalling.

Dearmon, quarterback Carter Stanley and an increasingly impressive array of skill players are shaping this offense into the best Kansas has seen since Todd Reesing was under center. The entire team has a growing chemistry, the kind tested and strengthened by setbacks such as a home loss to Coastal Carolina and a team captain quitting the program after a month. Now there's confidence, too, after a moral victory in Austin and Saturday's wild win over Texas Tech.

We're fans of Miles, but Kansas is not getting the same coach that LSU hired 15 years ago. Even with more institutional support, it's a tall order for Miles to make the Jayhawks a winning program in the current Big 12 landscape. But even if the head coach is past his championship prime, even if the staff loses rising star Dearmon to another job, even if there's still no bowl appearance after three more seasons, two things are clear: whenever and however Miles leaves Lawrence, it will be better than he found it, and what the 2019 team has become over the past three weeks is the best product Kansas has put on the field since 2007.

Plan of action: The vibe and confidence around this team and fan base are peaking just in time for Kansas to make a real statement about all of the above by winning the Sunflower Showdown.

Plenty of people in and around the Kansas State program lack a full appreciation for what Bill Snyder achieved in dominating his in-state rival the way he did, and sometimes when a new staff comes in, it's easy just to think things are automatically supposed to be a certain way. Ask Dan Mullen about the Florida-Kentucky series. Once Snyder got his program over the hump, he kept the pressure on the Jayhawks for over a decade, with 10 straight blowout covers at one point. And that's just the first time around; Snyder was 10-0 versus Kansas in his second stint as head coach.

But remember what happened the last time the Jayhawks escaped Snyder's yoke of oppression. They won three straight over the Wildcats. Chris Klieman is not Ron Prince, but he's got a tough job emphasizing this game and getting his team to respect what's happening in Lawrence, especially in the wake of a big upset win.

There were cracks in the armor before Snyder retired, in the form of three straight Kansas covers. The Jayhawks have been the team that wanted it more for a couple of years. Now they may also be the better team. For the first time in a long time, Kansas has better skill position talent than Kansas State and as many difference-makers. It's doubtful Kansas can find six wins on the schedule, but we're betting it will be fun to watch them try after they get number four this week.

Sell: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

We've written about this a lot since 2014, but it's so profitable it bears repeating. Elite program. No conference. One goal. Without a conference championship in play, it's been playoff-or-bust for the Irish since the postseason expanded -- and it's been mostly bust. A two-loss Notre Dame is the archetypal bubble-burst team. And you should fade such teams relentlessly.

Plan of action: Since 2014, Notre Dame is 6-11 straight up and 5-12 ATS after suffering the second loss of the season. As a favorite, the Irish are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 ATS. This trend is a monument to unrealistic expectations and the way in which constant focus on the playoff has devalued other achievements. That's a harsh reality for both the sport and its student athletes, but it is very real and very profitable. Send it in. Even if Notre Dame beats Virginia Tech 77-3, send it in next week without even blinking. And the week after that. Do not cherry-pick this. Just send it in. The immense long-term profitability of hammering bubble-burst teams won't change until the sport does, and when you find them you should act accordingly -- which in this case means consistently and aggressively.

Openers

First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas (-1, 49)

Noon ET, Saturday (CBSSN)

It's Week 10, but Central Michigan is the only team in the country playing a 10th consecutive game this week. The Chips have covered five straight versus NIU, but Jim McElwain is 1-5 ATS as a head coach in games lined -2.5 to +2.5.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini (-20, 49)

3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (Big Ten Network)

Only once in the past quarter century has Illinois offered 20 or more points to a fellow Big Ten team, that coming in a straight-up home loss to three-touchdown underdog Minnesota in 2010. Illinois has not won three consecutive games since 2011. The Illini are 1-6-2 ATS in efforts to do so since then. Three straight wins has been an elusive benchmark; think long and hard before you ask them not just to finally do it, but do it in the style required to cover a three-touchdown price.

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-5.5, 49.5)

3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)

Since the Seminoles' program began flagging following the 2013 national championship, all five games in this series have been covered by the road team and decided by five or fewer points.

Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers (-17.5, 54.5)

7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)

Gus Malzahn is 6-0 ATS versus Ole Miss since becoming Auburn's head coach. Ole Miss has one straight up win in that span and has logged more yards three times, so it's not as complete as Malzahn's domination of Arkansas, but he has beaten Ole Miss three previous times off an Auburn loss.

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (-6, 53)

10 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)

Utah State has won two straight over BYU as a pick 'em or 1-point underdog, but the Aggies have only been favored once in the 89-game history of this series, a 17-point loss to BYU in Logan as 6.5-point chalk.

These coaches know each other well. Kalani Sitake coached for Gary Andersen at Southern Utah in 2003 and was Andersen's defensive coordinator at Oregon State when he accepted the BYU job.

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