Entering Week 6, it's worth noting that the Dolphins didn't lose a game, and they have one of their better opportunities to notch a win this season when they host the Redskins in Week 6. As Washington was getting manhandled by New England on Sunday, the betting market moved from as high as Miami +5.5 to the current +3.5 number. In Week 9, the Dolphins host the Jets, and in Week 16, they get the Bengals. The argument could be made that their best chance is ultimately next Sunday, coming off of their bye week and facing a quarterback situation in Washington that is messy at best.
But is +3.5 fair? It's close. My projection is Dolphins +2.7. If I had to take a side, it would be Miami's, but fortunately I'm not forced to. This is still a team that is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored by 137 points. Bye week or not, it still has the inferior roster. I'm staying away -- good luck if you get involved.
There is one game, however, that I won't be staying away from in Week 6.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 6 line I'm investing in now
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
This is a historical account of my relationship with the 2019 Atlanta Falcons. In the offseason, I bet the Atlanta over 8.5 season wins and a Super Bowl future at 40-1. They are both losers. In Week 1, I jumped all over the Falcons +4 in Minnesota. The Vikings scored the first 28 points of the contest and won with ease. While it's important not to overreact to any single result, let alone one in the season opener, I wasn't feeling great about my Super Bowl wager.
I was cautious about getting involved against the Eagles the following Sunday, but in Week 3, the Falcons were getting points in Indianapolis! At the time, I projected them to be small favorites, and I used them in a teaser leg with the Vikings, who were hosting the Raiders. While it was a successful endeavor in an Atlanta three-point loss, there were signs pointing to a team with multiple issues. For starters, the Falcons committed 16 penalties for 128 yards in the game. I stayed on the sideline for the past two weeks as I watched the Titans and Texans each defeat Atlanta in dominating fashion. This team is bad. But are they 1.5-point favorites in Arizona bad?
The short answer is no. I've been downgrading this team every week since the start of the season, and I still project them to be 3.3-point favorites in this matchup against the Cardinals. Kliff Kingsbury's new squad deserves credit for snatching their first win in Cincinnati on Sunday. It's evident at this point, however, that the Bengals are (also) one of the league's worst teams. I'm willing to bet the Falcons aren't on that level quite yet, and I laid the -1.5.
Pick: Falcons -1.5
Early Week 6 lines
At completion of Sunday night game
Thursday
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-16.5, 44.5)
Sunday
Carolina Panthers (PK, 47.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 47.5)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Off)
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (PK, 45)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44)
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 47)
Washington Redskins (-3.5, 41) at Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 51) at Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 49)
Dallas Cowboys (-9, 43.5) at New York Jets
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 39.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (Off)
Monday
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6, 46.5)
Byes: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders