The 2019 NFL season rolls on, and we're here with a betting preview for Monday night's game between the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers.
Mike Clay and Joe Fortenbaugh offer their best bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sunday.
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 47)
George Kittle over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Last season, Kittle went over this mark in 11 of 16 games and set an NFL tight end record with 1,377 receiving yards. That works out to 86.1 yards per game, which is obviously well above this line. Kittle hasn't been quite as productive out of the gate in 2019, of course, but is still averaging 55.0 yards per game. Kittle has handled at least eight targets in two of three games this season, and the exception was a Week 2 blowout win over Cincinnati in which he was limited by game script to 16 routes and four targets. A route isn't nearly as likely against Cleveland this week, so Kittle's 26% target share (which, by the way, is barely below his 27% share from 2018) should be enough to get him over 63 receiving yards.
Nick Chubb under 86.5 rushing yards
Fortenbaugh: Chubb's exceptional, 165-yard effort at Baltimore in Week 4 has led to an inflated price regarding his Week 5 rushing yardage prop, which gives us an opportunity to exploit a market inefficiency. San Francisco boasts a much better defense than most people realize. Not only are the 49ers rested and healthy coming off their Week 4 bye, but this is a defensive unit that entered Week 5 ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing (75.0 yards per game) and fourth in opponent yards per carry (3.4 YPC), holding their opposing primary running backs to the following:
Week 1: Ronald Jones II (TB) with 13 carries for 75 yards
Week 2: Joe Mixon (CIN) with 11 carries for 17 yards
Week 3: James Conner (PIT) with 13 carries for 43 yards
San Francisco's defensive line, helmed by Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner, is one of the deepest in football, and its linebackers unit, anchored by soul-snatcher Kwon Alexander, is one of the fastest. Remember, Cleveland is a five-point underdog for this showdown. Not only is Chubb facing a stout matchup, but if his offense falls behind early, the Browns will likely have to abandon the running game late.