Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Fortenbaugh 1-4 (8-8 on season)
Youmans 3-2 (12-4)
Kezirian 1-1 (7-5)
Bearman 1-1 (3-3-1)
Clay 1-1 (4-3)
Johnson 2-1 (8-12)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. games
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Youmans: Whether using analytics or the eye test, it was tough to justify the Ravens opening as four-point road favorites. After bullying the league's two weakest teams, Baltimore finally faced legit competition and got pushed around by Kansas City and Cleveland. The media propped up quarterback Lamar Jackson as an MVP candidate, but that hype was as phony as the Baltimore defense. The Ravens were lit up through the air by Kyler Murray (349 yards), Patrick Mahomes (374) and Baker Mayfield (342), and their run defense was exposed by the Browns. The Steelers' initial six-point dropoff from Ben Roethlisberger to Mason Rudolph was an overreaction, as Big Ben was playing poorly before his injury. Pittsburgh has managed to cover its past two games, with Rudolph completing 24 of 28 passes in a 27-3 victory over the Bengals on Monday. The Steelers have several flaws, and the Ravens do rate as the better team, but Baltimore's edge is slight and the line, at more than a field goal, is inflated.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47)
Kezirian: At the risk of being a prisoner of the moment, I am backing the Cardinals. The Bengals have major issues, particularly on the offensive line. Cincy has allowed 19 sacks this year, which ranks 31st in the league. Additionally, the offense ranks dead last in rushing yards per game, third-worst in points per game and sixth-worst in total yards per game. It's a bad offense. Granted, the Cardinals have allowed a league-high 20 sacks, but I do not expect the Bengals' defense to capitalize on that. Murray is much more mobile than Andy Dalton, and the Bengals looked incredibly hapless on Monday night. I'll grab the points with the Cardinals.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5, 49)
Clay: Deshaun Watson's rushing production is down a bit this season, as he's on pace for 300 yards after totaling 551 on 99 attempts in 2018. That said, he's still fourth among quarterbacks in carries (18) and second in scrambles (11). Watson has gone under this week's number for rushing yards in three consecutive games, but prior to that was over it in eight straight. He went over 25 rushing yards in 13 of 17 games last season. Watson has at least one rush of 10-plus yards in 16 of 21 games since the start of last season. Expect him to land closer to 34 rushing yards against Atlanta.
Pick: Watson over 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3, 39)
Youmans: The Bills are for real, at least on one side of the ball. Buffalo's defense just limited Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense to a touchdown and a field goal in a 16-10 loss. The Bills rank No. 2 in the NFL in total defense (280.8 YPG), so this will be an uphill task for the inconsistent Marcus Mariota. The Titans have stayed under the total in their past three games, and it's obvious their 43-point outburst at Cleveland in Week 1 was a fluke. Buffalo's offense, held to 21 or fewer points in three of four games, is unlikely to get a lot accomplished with either Matt Barkley or Josh Allen at quarterback. All signs point to a low-scoring, ugly game in Nashville.
Pick: Under 39
Bearman: 33, 42, 38, 26. Those are the total points scored by both teams in the Bills' four games this year, all with Allen at quarterback and a stout defense that just slowed down the Patriots last week. Allen is in concussion protocol, which might mean Barkley under center. Barkley's four possessions in place of Allen ended in turnover on downs, punt, punt, interception. As Youmans mentioned, the Bills are second in total defense. They are also fifth in points allowed (15.8), while the Titans' defense ranks even better (fourth at 15.5 PPG). Neither defense has allowed an opponent to score more than 20. You might not want to watch this one.
Pick: Under 39
Chicago Bears (-5.5, 40) vs. Oakland Raiders (in London)
Youmans: Two years ago, Derek Carr and Khalil Mack were the faces of the Raiders' franchise. When they get reacquainted in London, Mack will be in Carr's face most of the day. The Bears have not allowed more than 15 points in a game this season and rank second in scoring defense (11.3 PPG), behind the Patriots. This game means something extra to Mack, who will be hellbent on getting quarterback pressures and sacks and can take advantage of a mediocre Oakland offensive line. There should be no decline in the Chicago offense with Chase Daniel replacing Mitchell Trubisky, and coach Matt Nagy might actually expand his playbook a little due to his confidence in Daniel.
The Raiders, on the road for the third consecutive week, are 3-13-1 ATS in their past 17 as away underdogs. In the Bears' past nine games, eight have gone under the total. With 41 being a key total number and this line moving up from four, some value is lost, so I'll go a half-unit on each.
Pick: Split one unit: Bears -5.5 and Under 40
Fortenbaugh: "Yeah, you could say I'm suppressing the emotional side of it, but the other side is to go out and make them pay for it." -- Mack, on facing his former team in London this weekend. Oakland head coach Jon Gruden desires nothing less than a firsthand-witness account of the Pro Bowl pass-rusher he traded to Chicago in 2018 destroying both his quarterback and team in 2019, so expect the Raiders to throw the kitchen sink at Mack in an effort to prevent him from wrecking the game. This plan will no doubt backfire, as Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano will sniff out the new points of vulnerability and attack them in aggressive fashion. Chicago currently ranks second in scoring defense, tied for third in opponent yards per play and tied for fourth in takeaways, so this unit is more than equipped to handle the job. Additionally, Daniel is an upgrade, in my opinion, over the injured Trubisky.
Pick: Bears -5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 41)
Youmans: In a 17-3 hole in Denver, the Jaguars had little going on offense and everything was going the way of a desperate, winless Broncos team. But overcoming the odds is the foundation for "Minshew Mania." Jacksonville believes in its rookie quarterback, who might be the best sixth-round pick since Tom Brady. He's got mobility and moxie. He's got a completion percentage (69.4) that ranks sixth in the NFL. He's also got the support of an elite defense -- with or without Jalen Ramsey -- that will keep the Jaguars in almost every game. It's a similar story with Kyle Allen and the Panthers. Allen's completion percentage (71.7) ranks fourth. He has made Cam Newton and his postgame outfits a forgotten sideshow in Carolina, where the Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games. Pull on a headband, tape on a fake mustache and take the field goal and hook with a live 'dog.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 43.5) at New York Giants
Fortenbaugh: Admittedly, there's a level of risk to this position given the disgruntled state of Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs, which is why head coach Mike Zimmer needs to advise him that there's no better cure for passing-game woes than a date with the Big Blue defense. Prior to last Sunday's abysmal coaching display by the soon-to-be-dismissed Jay Gruden, the Giants had permitted a grand total of 887 yards in back-to-back games to Josh Allen's Bills and Jameis Winston's Buccaneers -- not exactly a who's who of NFL quarterbacks. Speaking of unproven quarterbacks, it's one thing to tear apart a Washington secondary that has allowed opposing signal-callers to complete 77.8% of their passes; it's another thing entirely to slice and dice a Vikings defense that currently ranks sixth in opponent yards per play. Daniel Jones will have his work cut out for him on Sunday.
Pick: Vikings -5.5
New England Patriots (-15.5, 42) at Washington Redskins
Fortenbaugh: The Redskins surrendered 31 or more points to the Eagles, Cowboys and Bears to commence the 2019 season before "locking in" and permitting a paltry 17 points to Jones, who was making his second career start for the Giants last Sunday. What's even worse is that this Washington defense allowed Trubisky and the aforementioned Jones to complete 77% of their passes while effortlessly moving their respective offenses up and down the field. Gruden's seat is hotter than Chipotle stock, and the Redskins appear destined for the franchise's eighth losing season in the last 11 years. Right about now feels like the absolute worst time to welcome Bill Belichick, Brady and the Patriots to town.
Pick: Patriots team total over 29
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 44)
Bearman: Sam Darnold out once again, meaning if you are taking the 13.5, you are relying on Luke Falk and his 30.3 Total QBR (30th among NFL starting QBs). You'd be better off taking the under. The early line for this game (before the Eagles beat Green Bay) was Philly -7.5. Did they get better by a TD in a week without the Jets playing or changing QBs? Value would say take the two TDs, hope for a Jets defensive TD (like they did vs. the Patriots) and hold on. As far as the trends, Eagles QB Carson Wentz hasn't fared well in these spots, going 1-7 against the number in his eight home starts the last two seasons. For what it's worth, winless teams that go on the road out of a bye are 17-7 ATS, but none had Falk behind center. ESPN's Football Power Index says Eagles by 9.7, well below two TDs
Pick: Pass with Falk at QB, but take 13-14 in pools
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 47)
Fortenbaugh: Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has no desire to throw the football down the field (32nd in yards per attempt at 6.1), so we can eliminate chunk plays from the New Orleans arsenal until Drew Brees returns to the gridiron. This conservative style of play was evident dating back to Bridgewater's time in Minnesota, where the Louisville standout saw the over cash in just nine of the 28 games in which he started at quarterback for the Vikings from 2014-2015. Additionally, even when factoring Brees into the equation, the Saints are averaging a pedestrian-like 21.0 points per game (T-18th) and 5.5 yards per play (T-17th) this season. This is Tampa's third road game in four weeks (at Panthers, vs. Giants, at Rams, at Saints) and the 55 points the Bucs hung in Los Angeles last Sunday likely helped to inflate this total. Be advised that Tampa Bay currently ranks 15th in the NFL in pace while New Orleans checks in at 27th.
Pick: Under 47
4 p.m. games
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): The Broncos are 0-4 through the first four games of the Vic Fangio era and rank T-19th in yards per play, T-26th in scoring and, on defense, T-25th in sacks. Pass-rusher Bradley Chubb was lost for the season last Sunday with a torn ACL, and quarterback Joe Flacco ranks 22nd in the league in passer rating and has 11 sacks taken (eighth-most). All the Chargers need to do is play semicompetent football and victory is theirs in Week 5.
Pick: Chargers -0.5 (part of two-game, six-point teaser with Chiefs)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
Johnson: My projection is Packers +2.3. I bet against both of these teams in Week 4, and while I'd like to say the Eagles were the right side, I'm not so sure reflecting back that they were. Green Bay outgained them by 155 yards and 1 yard per play. Two turnovers to go along with a turnover on downs wound up being the demise of the Packers' chances. It was refreshing to see Aaron Rodgers pass for more than 400 yards again (it had only happened two times since 2014).
The Cowboys had faced the league's easiest schedule going into Week 4, and their offense followed it up with 10 points against the 30th-ranked defense this season in opponent yards per play (6.7). I rate both teams very similarly overall, so the difference in the point spread in this matchup should be the Cowboys' home-field advantage -- which isn't worth 3.5 points.
I know Davante Adams injured his toe against Philadelphia last Thursday night and is out, but he isn't ultimately affecting the point spread enough for me to stay off of the Pack at this number.
Pick: Packers +3.5
8:20 p.m. game
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 56)
Bearman: I admittedly took the Colts in this space last week against the traveling Raiders and paid the price. It was ugly early, as I underestimated the impact the injuries to T.Y. Hilton and the Colts' defense would have, even against a poor Raiders team. Won't be fooled twice. The Colts are even more banged-up (RB Marlon Mack, LB Darius Leonard, S Clayton Geathers, S Malik Hooker, Hilton) and now go and face NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes -- possibly without both starting safeties. Besides the injuries, multiple angles point to KC. The Colts play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Mahomes has destroyed zone coverage this year (12.5 YPA entering Week 4). The Colts looking to avenge last year's playoff loss? Since 2012, teams that are an away 'dog seeking playoff revenge (looking at you, Indy) are 5-23 SU and 7-21 ATS -- if you buy into angles like that. I'm hoping revenge for last week's poor pick goes to 1-0.
Pick: Chiefs -11
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): Kansas City is averaging a league-high 33.8 points and 7.4 YPP, with three of the team's four matchups having taken place on the road. That's bad news for an average (and banged-up) Indianapolis offense that is headed into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night. The Colts lack the firepower to trade haymakers in a heavyweight title fight, so an early, two-score deficit is likely to create havoc for Jacoby Brissett and company.
Pick: Chiefs -5 (part of two-team, six-point teaser with Chargers)
Clay: With Andrew Luck under center last season, the Colts' offense averaged 3.1 touchdowns per game. With Brissett at quarterback this season, Indianapolis scored exactly three offensive touchdowns in each of its four games. Brissett has reached two passing touchdowns in all four affairs and is set up with a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed seven passing touchdowns this season. Digging deeper, Kansas City has allowed a 9.3 pass OTD (or expected pass TD total based on playcalling) and 17 end zone targets, both of which are second-highest in the league. Brissett's projection this week is 2.3 passing touchdowns, so the over is attractive, even at -150.
Pick: Brissett over 1.5 pass TDs (-150)