Welcome to 2019 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Just pick a winner each week, and don't use the same team twice. If you win all 17 weeks (or outlast your group members), you win. You can find all the rules here.
This article will look at the top Eliminator options each week, using betting lines, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), trends, future schedules and anything else that will help determine the best picks. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
After three weeks where the chalk mostly held, we finally saw carnage last week. Five of the eight most-selected teams lost last week, including the Los Angeles Rams, who were picked by 24 percent of entrants. Overall, over 42 percent of contestants were eliminated.
The one saving grace was the Los Angeles Chargers, as the strategy of fading the Miami Dolphins continued to be very successful. The Dolphins now have a 16 percent chance to finish 0-16, according to ESPN's FPI. The Dolphins are off this week, so that strategy will have to wait until Week 6.
After last week's upsets, this seems like a good week to get back to basics. There are three double-digit favorites on the board, including the two best teams in the NFL according to FPI.
Top picks
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins
The Patriots are a two-touchdown favorite for the third time in the last four weeks. And no matter who plays at quarterback for Washington, the Patriots have a massive edge. They have not allowed a passing touchdown all season. If they continue the streak, they will be the first team to not allow a passing touchdown in the first five games in over 30 years. New England has also won an NFL-record 18 straight games against first- or second-year quarterbacks (Washington could give Dwayne Haskins the nod at QB). The Patriots, however, do get a home game next week against the New York Giants and will clearly be the biggest FPI favorites, so there is merit in saving the Pats for next week if you still have them.
Caesars line: Patriots -15.5
FPI favorite: Patriots (86%)
Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets
The Jets were a train wreck offensively in their first three games, ranking last in the NFL in offensive efficiency. Sam Darnold's absence has a lot to do with it, but the offensive line has also been among the worst in the NFL. Jets quarterbacks have been pressured on the sixth-most dropbacks in the NFL, and the rushing attack ranks second worst in rushing yards before contact. That's bad news against the Eagles' fearsome front. So even if Darnold returns this week, the Jets still might not be able to attack the Eagles' banged-up secondary. Philadelphia is also 10-0 all time against the Jets, the best mark in NFL history by one team against another. If Darnold starts, the Eagles would drop to the third-best pick this week.
Caesars line: Eagles -14
FPI favorite: Eagles (77% if Luke Falk starts)
Eliminator Challenge: 26% selected
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Chiefs barely leapfrogged the Patriots for the honor of FPI's best team entering this week. Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a home loss to the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis is dealing with injuries to several of its best players, including Darius Leonard, Clayton Geathers, Malik Hooker and T.Y. Hilton. And against the Chiefs' high-powered offense, potentially missing both starting safeties would be a major blow. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Kansas City is 12-0 as a favorite of at least four points. While the Chiefs still have home games remaining against the Raiders (Week 13) and Broncos (Week 15), this is a fine spot to use them.
Caesars line: Chiefs -10.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs (81%)
Eliminator Challenge: 19% selected
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
There is a big drop-off in confidence after the top three picks, but if Josh Allen is out for Buffalo, the Titans are surprisingly the fourth-most confident pick this week, according to FPI. Coming off a close loss to the Patriots in which the defense was great but the offense was terrible, the Bills now have to go on the road to Tennessee. The Titans are one of three teams to rank above average in offense, defense and special-teams efficiency, along with the Patriots and Green Bay Packers. And the Titans only have one more game the rest of the way where they are one of the top five FPI favorites (Week 12 vs. the Jaguars). This is significantly riskier than the top three picks, but the Titans are highly unlikely to be a popular pick, largely due to the short betting line. One other positive with the Titans: left tackle Taylor Lewan returns from a four-game suspension. Without him, the Titans had allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. If Allen is healthy, the next-best team to pick is the Minnesota Vikings (at Giants).
Caesars line: Titans -3
FPI favorite: Titans (75% if Matt Barkley starts)
Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected