Process versus results is a phrase that is regularly used in the sports betting community. It applies to many other real-world examples as well, and that method of thinking is something that we preached to athletes and coaches at the University of Utah when I was studying to get my master's degree in sport psychology. The practicality of basing assumptions off of limited data or small sample sizes isn't efficient. Just because we trained a football player to prepare a certain way mentally before a big game and he wound up playing poorly or the Utes lost, that doesn't mean that preparing the same way in the future would fail to yield positive long-term dividends.
I haven't had a very good NFL season through the first four weeks. I seem to use up all of my good fortune on Saturdays in college football, and I can't catch many breaks on Sundays. It's discouraging, but it's why process-oriented thinking is so crucial and mentally beneficial. Win or lose, it's worthwhile to reflect back on the bets you make each week to see which appear to be ones with positive (or negative) expected value -- regardless of the actual results. This can be challenging when the result is losing hard-earned money to the sportsbooks. Doing it, however, will not only help your state of mind, but I'm confident it will also make you a more profitable bettor.
My two early bets in Week 4 were Vikings +2.5 and Bengals +5. I had mentioned in our first-look analysis that I projected Minnesota to be a true PK in Chicago, and that I had Cincinnati at +3 in Pittsburgh. The betting markets closed the Vikings at PK, and the Bengals were a juiced +3.5 at -120 or even a flat +3 before they kicked off Monday night. Well, neither team had much of a chance to cover in either game. Were these good bets?
A results-oriented thought process would deem them awful bets (they certainly looked so on the field). But what do we know about the betting markets? They are pretty dang efficient, and they're as predictive of a source as any we have to consistently determine the outcome of games. It's safe to say that betting +2.5s when the matured market believes the true line is PK is going to pay off in the long run. Don't let single-game results cloud your process. I'm keeping my head up in Week 5, and I'm excited about a few of the bets I've already made.
Portfolio checkup
Buy: Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
Two weeks ago, I bought the Tampa Bay defense, and they subsequently scored 86 points in their past two games, including 55 against the Rams this past Sunday. Bruce Arians, Jameis Winston and the rest of the Buccaneers offense is figuring it out. I immediately bet them at open Sunday at +6 and +5.5 against the Saints this week, and upon the game reopening, it has been down to as low as +3 in certain shops.
Now, unless you were able to read my first-look piece and grab an early number, this isn't particularly useful anymore in Week 5. I do think it's worth noting for future weeks, though. The market doesn't always react in a timely manner. There may be value betting Tampa Bay at open for another game or two. Keep an eye out. I also bet the Buccaneers to win the NFC South at +650 earlier this week. The Falcons are a mess, and with injuries to Drew Brees and Cam Newton, I believe the South is more open than the market is currently pricing it.
If Tampa Bay is to win in New Orleans on Sunday, they'll suddenly be tied for the division lead and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The division price at that point will change drastically, and I wanted to get out ahead of it now.
Sell: Nothing this week (aside from the Miami Dolphins)
We could always just sell the Dolphins every week, but there isn't anybody standing out this time around that I think consequently offers up any value in the current betting markets.
Early line moves: Week 5
Agree
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Opened Packers +4
Now: Packers +3.5
Outside of the move on the Buccaneers in New Orleans, the other matchup that stands out to me is Packers-Cowboys. Green Bay was sitting +4 until late Monday afternoon, and a flood of Packers money came in and moved it to +3.5 across the market. My projection is +2.3. I bet against both of these teams in Week 4, and while I'd like to say the Eagles were the right side, I'm not so sure reflecting back that they were. The Packers outgained them by 155 yards and 1 yard per play. Two turnovers to go along with a turnover on downs wound up being the demise of Green Bay's chances. It was refreshing to see Aaron Rodgers pass for more than 400 yards again (it had only happened two times since 2014).
The Cowboys had faced the league's easiest schedule going into Week 4, and their offense followed it up with 10 points against the 30th-ranked defense this season in opponent yards per play allowed (6.7). I rate both teams very similarly overall, so the difference in the point spread in this matchup should be the Cowboys' home-field advantage -- which isn't worth 3.5-4 points.
Disagree
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Spread: Opened Vikings -6 or -5.5
Now: Vikings -5 or -4.5
Depending on the sportsbook, the Vikings opened either -6 or -5.5 on the road against the Giants and Daniel Jones. After the Giants won back-to-back games including a 24-3 home clinic over the Redskins, I'm not surprised the market is offering Minnesota at -4.5 and -5 now. The Giants were beneficiaries of four Washington turnovers, including a Dwayne Haskins interception New York returned for a touchdown.
Daniel Jones threw two INTs himself, and while the final score is impressive, I'm not necessarily buying the Giants yet. My projection is Vikings -6.8, with the most common result being a seven-point victory. I've made a smaller bet on Minnesota at -4.5, and if this continues to drop further during the week, I'll be adding some more at -4 or better.