NFL Week 5 betting first look: Ravens worth a wager

The underdogs were back barking again in Week 4 with a 9-4 record ATS through Sunday's games (Bears-Vikings closed pick-em). Let's hope for 10-4 with our Bengals +5 pick from last week's first look still pending. By the way, seven of those covers from the nine underdogs won their games outright (go Buccaneers).

Similar to last week, two games jump off of the Week 5 card to me. Here's a look into those matchups and the sides I believe are worth betting now before lines start moving throughout the week.

Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Week 5 lines I'm investing in now

Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Recent history would suggest laying -3.5 or -4 in this interdivision rivalry game is a bad idea (especially on the road team). In a sense, I'm doubling down on how bad Mason Rudolph and the Steelers' offense played in San Francisco last week. Their Monday Night Football game is tonight, but either way, the process and evaluation were sound grabbing Cincinnati +5 with the betting market Bengals +3.5 as of late Sunday night. If I'm right and Pittsburgh looks equally lacking at home against my 27th-rated team in the NFL, then the numbers in the market on a superior Baltimore team at -3.5 or -4 are going to be cheap as well.

Pick: Ravens -4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (off the board)

Editor's note: Game re-opened Monday morning at Saints -4.5.

Caesars took this game off of the board as Sunday Night Football kicked off between the Cowboys and Saints. Prior to kickoff, however, the Buccaneers were getting +6 or +5.5 in the market. Considering New Orleans beat Dallas outright, I don't anticipate the market to reopen much lower. My projection for the game is Tampa Bay +3. I talked the Bucs up two weeks ago in my buy/sell piece in regards to their defense following their win in Carolina. They decided to score 86 in their next two games, including 55 against the Rams on Sunday. It appears I should have been buying this team as a whole (the defense did intercept Jared Goff three times, so it certainly made plays).

I've been preaching overreaction in the Saints market since Drew Brees went down with an injury and they've won back-to-back games outright as underdogs. In this case, however, I don't think the market is reacting enough to what Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles are doing in Tampa Bay. It's worth noting that while New Orleans won last night, the Saints didn't score a single touchdown. Twelve points on four field goals were enough to take the Cowboys down, but it will require much more to stay ahead of a locked-in Buccaneers offense. I took the points earlier on Sunday and recommend doing the same at anything lined in the same range.

Pick: Bucs (projected at +5.5 or +6)

Early Week 5 lines

At completion of Sunday night game

Thursday

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 49)

Sunday

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 48.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (5.5, 48.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-4, 42.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (Off)
Chicago Bears (-5.5, 41.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (in London)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 41)
Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 45) at New York Giants
New England Patriots (-14.5, 45.5) at Washington Redskins
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (Off)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Off)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 43.5)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Off)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 57)

Monday

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 48)

Byes: Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins