The 2019 NFL season rolls on, and we're here with a betting preview for Monday night's game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Mike Clay, Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian offer their best bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 43.5)
Andy Dalton over 262.5 passing yards (-110)
Clay: The Bengals have called for a pass on 73% of their offensive plays this season, which is third highest in the league. Dalton has, in turn, thrown for 978 yards over three games (326 per game), including 418 yards in Seattle, 311 yards against San Francisco and 249 yards against a tough Buffalo pass defense. Through three weeks, Dalton sits second in the league in both pass attempts and passing yards. This week, Dalton faces a Steelers defense that has given up 76 pass completions (sixth most) for 918 yards (third most), as well as an 8.9 YPA (fifth highest) and 74% completion rate (fourth highest). All three quarterbacks who have faced the Steelers this season have reached at least 277 passing yards. Expect Dalton to come in closer to 297 yards in Week 4.
Fortenbaugh At 0-3 and facing an opponent that has defeated you 16 times in its last 19 ties dating to 2010, what have you got to lose in letting it all hang out on Monday Night Football as 4-point road underdogs? That needs to be the mindset employed by the Cincinnati Bengals, who face a Steelers team that ranks 30th in pass defense (302.7 yards per game) and 23rd in opponent yards per play (6.3). Be advised that every quarterback to face this Pittsburgh defense in 2019 has thrown for at least 268 passing yards, and Dalton is averaging 326.3 passing yards this season.
Joe Mixon under 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
Clay: The Bengals have operated one of the league's most pass-heavy offenses this season, which has meant their running backs have combined for only 48 carries (eighth fewest) for 120 yards (second fewest). Mixon missed part of Week 1 because of an injury, but he has out-snapped Giovani Bernard only 69 to 49 over the past two weeks and has registered 26 carries during the span. The Steelers have given up a ton of rushing yards this season, but facing run-heavy Seahawks and 49ers teams has been the primary culprit. In fact, Pittsburgh's 4.3 YPC allowed to opposing backs ranks slightly better than average. I have Mixon, who has 88 rushing yards on the season, at 51 yards in 12 attempts in this one. Take the under.
Tyler Boyd over 73.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Cincinnati's slot receiver has one of the best matchups in the league this week, as he'll go head-to-head with Steelers slot CB Mike Hilton. The Steelers have given up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, including 530 yards to players aligned in the slot, which is 88 more yards than the next-closest defense. Incredibly, Pittsburgh was also worst in this category in 2018. Hilton's struggles have been a major reason, and offenses have taken notice, as he has been targeted on a massive 33% of his coverage snaps. Phillip Dorsett (95), Julian Edelman (83), Tyler Lockett (79) and Josh Gordon (73) have all reached 73 yards against Pittsburgh this season, and a majority of those yards came from the slot. Expect Boyd, who is averaging 11 targets and 83 yards per game this season, to creep closer to 80 yards than 70 yards this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster under 80.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Smith-Schuster has posted receiving yardage totals of 78, 84 and 81 so far this season, but 60% of that production came on three plays (receptions of 76, 45 and 26 yards). In fact, Smith-Schuster put up 81 yards in Mason Rudolph's first NFL start last Sunday, but 76 of those yards came on one long touchdown. Rudolph's slow start (6.9 aDOT, 56.5% C%, 6.2 YPA) should certainly give us pause on Smith-Schuster's prospects. A lack of volume could also be a problem this weekend, as teams have attempted only 81 passes and completed 54 against the Bengals this season, both of which are lowest in the league. Furthermore, wide receivers have managed 30 receptions (third fewest) for 448 yards (eighth fewest) against the Bengals. A better bet for Smith-Schuster is in the range of 67 receiving yards this week.