Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Fortenbaugh 4-0 (7-4 on season)
Youmans 3-0 (9-2)
Kezirian 1-2 (6-4)
Bearman 0-1 (2-2-1)
Clay 1-1 (3-2)
Johnson 3-2 (6-11)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. games
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4, 46.5)
Johnson: I know we don't want to get overly excited about Kyle Allen dropping 38 points on the Cardinals, but Norv Turner's offense looked refreshed. The ability to take shots down the field with a healthy quarterback opened everything up. Allen finished the game throwing for more than 10 yards per pass attempt (only Patrick Mahomes is better this season) and four touchdowns. Cam Newton didn't pass for a single touchdown through two games.
I think the Panthers -- even with Allen -- project to be nearly as good as the Texans overall. They have advantages over Houston in other positions and rank second in the NFL in opponent yards per play this season, behind only the Patriots (4.3). My projection for this matchup is Carolina +3.2 (with potentially more upside to Allen than currently projected), so at +4 it's a smaller edge than the +5 that was around earlier this week. If you have access to a +4.5 in the market at any point before kickoff, I would fill the remaining position there.
Pick:
Fortenbaugh: Allen looked impressive in his 2019 debut for Carolina last Sunday at Arizona, but don't lose sight of the fact that the Panthers were coming off 10 days of rest and facing a Cardinals defense that is without a shadow of a doubt one of the worst in professional football. This weekend in Houston will feature a much stiffer challenge for the former Houston Cougar.
The Texans are a Will Lutz 58-yard field goal away from a perfect 3-0 record that includes a 20-3 second-half run against the Chargers in Los Angeles last Sunday to emerge victorious, 27-20. Houston currently ranks fourth in the NFL in third-down conversions, tied for 10th in turnover differential and tied for 11th in yards per play despite playing two of three games on the road and two of three games against the league's better defenses.
Pick: Texans -4
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 45.5)
Clay: The Ravens have scored a league-high 14 offensive touchdowns in three games, but they have only two passing touchdowns against teams not based out of Miami. In fact, even including the Dolphins blowout, Baltimore has scored 57 percent of its offensive touchdowns through the air (ninth-lowest) and the team's playcalling suggests it should be closer to 54 percent. In Lamar Jackson's eight starts in 2018, Baltimore scored eight rushing TDs and seven passing scores. My model shows a 62 percent chance that Jackson will throw fewer than two touchdowns against Cleveland, but this line from Caesars has it closer to 48 percent, making the under a good value.
Pick: Jackson under 1.5 pass TDs (+110)
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): Give me the buttoned-up John Harbaugh every day of the week and twice on Sundays when it comes to an opponent as undisciplined and poorly coached as the Browns. Did you see that draw call on fourth-and-9 against the Rams on Sunday night? We all make mistakes, but that type of blunder will often prove insurmountable against the league's top coaches. The Browns currently rank dead last in the NFL in penalties per game, 28th in third-down conversion percentage and have committed the seventh-most turnovers in the league. The Ravens should take care of business in a bounce-back spot off last week's loss (but point spread cover!) at Kansas City.
Pick: Ravens -1 in two-team, 6-point teaser with Colts -0.5
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-2.5, 49)
Fortenbaugh: Rookie signal-caller Daniel Jones is grabbing all the headlines in the Big Apple this week -- and for good reason. But gamblers should be paying close attention to the disaster that is the Big Blue defense. The Giants currently rank 31st in the NFL in both total defense and opponent yards per play, as well as 30th in scoring defense. To put it more bluntly, this unit surrendered an astronomical 887 total yards to Buffalo and Tampa Bay over the past two weeks. As for the Redskins, Washington has allowed its opposing quarterbacks (Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Mitchell Trubisky) to complete a ridiculous 79 of 100 total passes through the first three weeks of the season. That's incredible when you consider the $14.3 million cap hit cornerback Josh Norman is costing the team this season.
Pick: Over 49 points
Los Angeles Chargers (-15.5, 44) at Miami Dolphins
Bearman: Even with some juice, it's worth taking Philip Rivers over 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Dolphins, off to one of the worst starts in NFL history statistically, have allowed nine passing TDs in three games (five to Jackson and two each to Tom Brady and Prescott). As for Rivers and the Chargers, Melvin Gordon isn't active yet and they haven't had anyone reach 70 rushing yards. Rivers has attempted 34, 36 and 46 passes and has had at least two TD passes in two of the three games. With a suspect Dolphins defense, he should have no problem here.
Pick: Rivers over 1.5 TD passes (-150)
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 45)
Bearman: Oakland got run over last week (allowed 210 rush yards) at Minnesota and now travels east again to face the Colts. Putting the back-to-back multiple-time zone trips aside, the Raiders have lost and failed to cover their past seven games played at 1 p.m. ET, including 0-5 (ATS and SU) in Jon Gruden's second stint on the sidelines. Now they do it in back-to-back weeks and face a Colts team that is an OT road loss away from being 3-0. Oakland ranks near the bottom of the NFL in every defensive category, an open invitation to lay less than a TD with Indy. It doesn't get any easier for Oakland, as the Raiders next go to London for a "home" game, followed by a bye and road games in Green Bay and Houston.
Pick: Colts -6.5
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): Colts GM Chris Ballard is building a bully in Indianapolis, one that is a road overtime session against the Chargers away from a perfect 3-0 mark to start the season. Led by quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Colts have coughed up just two turnovers while committing the second-fewest penalties in the league. Meanwhile, Oakland is a completely different story thanks to a defense that ranks 28th in opponent yards per play. Only six teams in the league have a worse turnover differential than the Raiders, who have been blown out by 18 and 20 points, respectively, over the past two weeks.
Pick: Colts -0.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with Ravens -1
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 54) at Detroit Lions
Youmans: It never feels good to be fading Mahomes, who has 10 touchdown passes in three games. There has been no sophomore slump, and he's not missing Tyreek Hill. But there are some problems with the Kansas City defense. This bet is more about buying into the Lions, who I backed the past two weeks. Matthew Stafford has six TD passes and has been sacked only three times, and Detroit ranks 12th in scoring defense (20.3 PPG). The Lions are finally becoming a fundamentally sound football team, something I did not expect to say in the preseason. Look for +7 to reappear, assuming the betting public jumps on the Chiefs to bump the line up by Sunday.
Pick: Lions +6.5
New England Patriots (-7, 42) at Buffalo Bills
Youmans: It's tempting to play the home underdog, but betting under the total is probably the better way to go. The Patriots rank No. 1 in total defense (199 yards per game), with their defense allowing a total of three points in three games. The Bills rank fifth in yardage (299.7) and scoring defense (15.7 PPG). Buffalo's offense is scoring 22 points per game after facing three of the league's weakest defenses -- the Jets (21st), Bengals (27th) and Giants (31st) -- and quarterback Josh Allen has had no success against Bill Belichick (New England won last year's meetings 25-6 and 24-12).
Brady is 15-2 straight up and 13-4 ATS at Buffalo, but his most lethal weapon against the Bills was usually tight end Rob Gronkowski, who's not making a comeback and is closer to becoming a pro wrestler. With division games staying under the total 10 of 14 times this season, expect Brady to outplay Allen in an ugly game dominated by elite AFC East defenses.
Pick: Under 42
Kezirian: New England's defense has dominated opponents this young season, allowing the fewest yards per game and no touchdowns. Facing the Dolphins and Jets may have skewed those numbers, but this is still a respectable unit. Allen will likely find some opportunities with his legs, but the Patriots are still strong enough to prevent an offensive breakthrough. Buffalo's defense routinely ranks among the league's best, and that's a big reason why the Bills have started 3-0. I think points are at a premium here, and I will opt for the first-half under.
Pick: Under 21 first-half points
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 45)
Fortenbaugh: As they say, styles make fights. Entering Week 4 on 10 days rest, the Titans are set up perfectly to spring the upset in Atlanta on Sunday. The strength of the Falcons lies in the team's passing offense, which will go toe-to-toe with a Tennessee defense that ranked sixth in the NFL against the pass last season and currently ranks third this season. Additionally, the Titans' defense already has four interceptions, which could spell trouble for Falcons signal-caller Matt Ryan, who has thrown six picks in just three games this year (he had seven all of last year). Look for Tennessee to control the clock via running back Derrick Henry and an offense that currently ranks 19th in pace.
Pick: Titans +4
4 p.m. games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 49.5)
Johnson: I tweeted about a conversation I had with myself on Wednesday morning. There is clearly more that goes into siding with the Buccaneers than what I said there, but I did buy Tampa Bay at +10. My projection is +7.8, and the Todd Bowles defense is extremely similar to what the Browns run. The Rams managed to score just three points in the first half in Cleveland on Sunday night and 20 points in the game. I don't think it's a worthwhile wager at +9.5, but I wanted to get it out there for everybody in case the market goes to +10 again at any point this week.
Pick: Bucs if line gets to +10
Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48) at Arizona Cardinals
Kezirian: Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is long gone, as this is a Seahawks defense that allowed 418 passing yards to Andy Dalton in the season opener. It bounced back statistically in the next two games, but you have to dig deeper there. Pittsburgh lost Ben Roethlisberger midgame and Seattle then faced another backup in Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was effective but the numbers were pedestrian because the Saints built a 20-point lead with two non-offensive touchdowns. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have started slow, but a home game against this Seattle defense might be just what the doctor ordered. The entire offense seems to be developing more rhythm with each game, and points should follow as long as Kingsbury stops electing for field goals in the red zone.
Pick: Cardinals team total over 21 points (FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2, 38.5)
Youmans: Aside from a couple of Kirk Cousins blunders at Lambeau Field, the Vikings have shown few flaws. Minnesota and Buffalo are tied for the fifth in scoring defense (15.7 PPG), and the Vikings rank No. 2 in rushing offense (193.7 YPG) with Dalvin Cook leading the NFL with 375 rushing yards. Before getting too excited about Trubisky's supposed breakthrough game Monday night when he passed for three touchdowns, keep in mind that the Chicago offense produced only 298 total yards, a season-high mark after the Bears totaled 273 yards against Denver and 254 against Green Bay. Unlike the Vikings, the Bears are having trouble running the ball. Trubisky can be a dangerous runner, and he's more accurate throwing the ball while on the run, but Vikings coach Mike Zimmer's aggressive, fast defense can contain Trubisky and force him to pass from the pocket, where he's erratic.
It's tough to play under the low total (38.5) because both defenses could create scores or short fields with turnovers. Minnesota is the better team and should win if Cousins can avoid costly mistakes with Khalil Mack in his face.
Pick: Vikings +2
Johnson: While I was heavy in Vikings teaser usage in spots that I could get them to -8.5 to -2.5 last week, I regretted not laying the points straight as well. It's easy to say after seeing last week's 34-14 final score, but there were signs in the Vikings' Week 2 matchup in Green Bay that pointed to them performing much better than the result showed. The Vikings outgained the Packers 7.0 yards per play to 4.9, but they turned the ball over four times and had 65 yards in penalties. Minnesota still lost the game only 21-16 and had multiple chances in the fourth quarter to win the game.
So what does this have to do with Week 4? The Vikings have shown three dominant performances despite being only 2-1 (they crushed the Falcons out of the gate in Week 1). I really like the +2 in their matchup against a Bears offense that has really only looked respectable in one of the six halves of football they have played this season. My projection is Minnesota +0.1, so at nearly a coin-flip game I will happily take the two points with the better team against Chicago on a short week. I also think the Vikings are a prime option to use in a six-point teaser with the Saints +8.5.
Pick: Vikings +2
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3, 39)
Youmans: Almost everyone has given up on the Broncos, who look hopelessly lost with 34-year-old Joe Flacco slowly spinning his wheels for a winless team. It appears general manager John Elway has whiffed on yet another post-Peyton Manning quarterback project. Denver has scored only 46 points in three games, but the offense did move the ball against two top-five scoring defenses (Chicago and Green Bay) until failing to finish drives. Flacco has also been sacked 11 times.
Denver's defense has no sacks or takeaways, a surprising result considering defensive mastermind Vic Fangio is the new coach and Von Miller and Bradley Chubb lead what was expected to be a fearsome pass rush. Bet on that defense finally denting the sack and turnover columns against Jaguars rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The price is cheap on the Broncos, who have their backs to the wall and will be playing with desperation.
Pick: Broncos -3
8:20 p.m. game
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 47) at New Orleans Saints
Youmans: The betting public is infatuated with Dallas, which seems to have all the pieces in place with an elite defense and Prescott's explosive offense. The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS with double-digit victories over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins -- three bad teams with a combined 1-8 record. The Saints are far superior to those teams on the defensive side, and they obviously can win with a steady Bridgewater running the offense in Drew Brees' absence. His best days were in the past, but Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS in his NFL career as a starter. The last time New Orleans was a 'dog in the Superdome, the Saints (+2) beat the Rams 45-35 last season. Wait for +3 to resurface, because the public will bet the Cowboys, but take the 2.5 if a better number never comes back.
Pick: Saints +2.5 (look for 3)
Clay: Despite missing most of the offseason, Ezekiel Elliott has been effective as a rusher this season, averaging a career-high 5.25 YPC and posting a 1.98 YAC, which is down only slightly from 2018. Elliott has cleared 100 rushing yards twice so far, though an incredibly light slate that has included the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins can't be overlooked, especially considering Dallas will face one of the league's toughest schedules going forward. That includes Week 4 against the Saints.
No running back ran for more than 75 yards in a game against New Orleans last season, including Elliott, who was held to 75 yards on 23 carries (3.3 YPC) when these teams met. The Saints run defense hasn't been quite as dominant this season, but the unit did hold Todd Gurley and Chris Carson below 4.0 YPC over the past two weeks. Elliott is no stranger to falling short of 93 yards, as he did exactly that in nine of 17 games last season, including five of eight road affairs. Expect him to be closer to 82 yards in Week 4.
Pick: Elliott under 92.5 rushing yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: The promotion of former quarterbacks coach Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator this past offseason may go down as the single slickest move of head coach Jason Garrett's tenure in Big D. Through three weeks, the Cowboys rank first in the NFL in third-down conversions, second in yards per play and fourth in scoring, all while committing a grand total of two turnovers. That unit should once again find success on Sunday night in New Orleans against a Saints defense that ranks 30th in opponent yards per play.
Additionally, don't sleep on Bridgewater, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes with two touchdown tosses and zero sacks taken in a 33-27 road win at Seattle last weekend. If you can hang points at CenturyLink Field, you can likely hang a few against an improved Dallas defense.
Pick: Over 47