Best Week 4 NFL Eliminator picks

Welcome to 2019 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Just pick a winner each week, and don't use the same team twice. If you win all 17 weeks (or outlast your group members), you win. You can find all the rules here.

This article will look at the top Eliminator options each week, using betting lines, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), trends, future schedules and anything else that will help determine the best picks. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)

Once again, on paper, this is an easy week. The Los Angeles Chargers face the Miami Dolphins as nearly 17-point favorites, while the Los Angeles Rams are the other double-digit favorite.

After the Chargers and Rams, the Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts are the biggest FPI favorites. The Patriots will be a bigger favorite in most weeks going forward, so saving them is prudent. The same is true with the Colts, who have a Week 10 home matchup against the lowly Dolphins. Houston is only a 4-point favorite, but despite that, they are the top contrarian pick on the board.

However, there is no reason to avoid the chalk just yet. The Chargers and Rams both have schedules down the stretch in which there is no reason to save either one, and both have significantly better chances to win this week than the other options down the board.

So as usually has been the case this season, the chalkiest options are the best options. There will be plenty of other weeks to be contrarian, including next week, when the top options will become a little bit murkier.

Top picks

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Until they prove otherwise, picking the Dolphins' opponent looks like a profitable strategy in Eliminator Challenge. FPI now ranks the Fins over 10 points worse than any other team in the NFL, and they have a 14% chance to finish 0-16. Miami ranks last in the NFL in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and it is the second team in the Super Bowl era to lose its first three games by at least 25 points each. So while the Chargers are flying all the way across the country, they are the clear pick this week. Under Anthony Lynn, they are 4-3 in games played at 1 p.m. ET, despite being favored in only two of those games. There also isn't a single other week when FPI projects them as one of the three biggest favorites, so saving them is fruitless.

Caesars line: Chargers -16.5
FPI favorite: Chargers (86%)
Eliminator Challenge: 30% selected

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over the past two seasons, the Rams are an NFL-best 18-4, including 9-1 at home. While Tampa Bay's defense is improved this season, the Bucs are 27th in offensive efficiency and last in special teams efficiency. The Rams are the second-biggest favorites, according to FPI and the betting lines. There also isn't a lot of upside in saving the Rams. There isn't a single week all season when they will be the biggest FPI favorite.

Caesars line: Rams -10
FPI favorite: Rams (81%)
Eliminator Challenge: 26% selected

Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers

FPI views the Texans as the third-biggest favorites this week, even though their betting line is a little tighter. As a result, the Texans are shaping up to be a great contrarian pick this week -- as of now, they are just 1% selected. They are a lot riskier than the two Los Angeles teams, so the Texans are a distant third option; but if one of those L.A. squads loses, a good chunk of the field could be wiped out. Planning ahead, there isn't a single other week all season when Houston will be one of the top-four FPI favorites. One thing to watch for: Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen is 2-0 in his career, with both starts coming as an underdog. Allen seeks to join Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to begin their careers with wins in each of their first three starts as an underdog in each game.