Six NFL teams started new quarterbacks in Week 3. Those teams went 5-1 ATS, with the Dolphins being the only loser. Did the market overreact to the fresh faces under center, or are these results of a small sample?
I'll touch on a few of these games and dissect the early line moves that I agree and disagree with in Week 4. I'll also break down how I am attacking a depleted AFC in the futures market. Let's get into it.
Portfolio checkup
Buy the NFC, and sell the AFC
How quickly the tables have turned. In the offseason, everybody was hyping the potential Super Bowl contenders in the AFC: Patriots, Chiefs, Colts, Chargers, Browns, Steelers. In the NFC, it was the Saints or Rams and a severe drop-off to the next best in the conference. Due to some unfortunate circumstances (Andrew Luck retiring and Ben Roethlisberger getting injured for the season) and the Browns and Chargers not looking as good as preseason expectations, the AFC suddenly appears to be a two-team race. The NFC, however, has teams such as the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings and 49ers emerging as legitimate squads to be reckoned with come playoff time. I still even have an irrational belief in the Falcons!
While the Packers' NFC futures in the +800 to +1000 range from Week 2 are in a good spot (currently priced +650), I would prefer to avoid navigating a stacked NFC race at this point and look to an AFC with limited options. Caesars currently prices the Chiefs at +200 to win the AFC and the Patriots at +115. Shopping around a few different sportsbooks, I was able to find the Chiefs as high as +275 and the Patriots +170.
Sparing everybody the mundane math, risking the same bet size on each of these AFC futures bets equates to a price of roughly -170 that either the Chiefs or Patriots win the AFC. The implied odds of a proposition priced at -170 are 63%. I project one of these two teams to win the AFC 78.7% of the time. The baseline edge is massive here, but my projections assume that Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are healthy for the entirety of the season. An injury is certainly a possibility, so I didn't go too crazy with it, but I wanted to take advantage of an AFC that isn't nearly as dangerous as the market initially believed.
Early line moves: Week 4
Agree
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Opened Bengals +5
Now: Bengals +4
I wrote about the Bengals-Steelers matchup in our first look here. The move from Bengals +5 to +4 is the correct one. The Steelers lost to the 49ers this past Sunday, despite San Francisco turning it over five times in their game. Pittsburgh struggled mightily with Mason Rudolph under center for the injured Roethlisberger. In fact, the Steelers completed just two passes that traveled more than 1 yard downfield. That's the fewest for any team in any game since 2011 (Tim Tebow went 2-for-8 for 69 yards in a 17-10 win over the Broncos).
There will likely be a narrative this week that at 0-3 the Steelers are in a "must-win" situation. That doesn't mean they are good enough to beat Cincinnati by five or more points regularly enough, and it certainly isn't going to be predictive of the game's results.
Disagree
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Broncos -2
Now: Broncos -3
It was the Gardner Minshew show on Thursday in Jacksonville against the Titans. While I'm still not convinced that Minshew can be a long-time starting quarterback in the NFL, he might be. He looked the part Thursday, completing 67% of his passes for two touchdowns and avoiding throwing an interception. He had similar numbers when he led the Jaguars to a late rally in Houston in Week 2 and they came up short on a two-point conversion to win the game. I discredited his numbers against the Chiefs' prevent defense when he took over in Week 1 for Nick Foles (which I still think is fair), but he hasn't fallen off completely since or given us a Rudolph performance to convey uncertainty. The Jacksonville defense is sound, and I've been bearish on the Broncos' offense all year (and bet against them in Week 1 and Week 3).
Well, Denver opened -2, which is a fair line given the extra preparation days for the Jaguars. The Broncos have been bet up to -3 with juice as high as -120 in the market, and there is even a rogue -3.5 that exists out there. My projection is +1.9, and I understand the narrative of Minshew traveling to play in altitude against an elite Denver defense. But the defense hasn't looked elite this season and ranks below league average in opponent yards per play (and the Broncos have faced the Raiders, Bears and Packers). If +3.5s become common in the market, I'll be grabbing the Jaguars.
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
Spread: Opened Texans -4
Now: Texans -5
The Texans opened -4 at home to the Panthers this week and have since been bet up to -5. I know we don't want to get overly excited about Kyle Allen dropping 38 points on the Arizona Cardinals, but Norv Turner's offense looked refreshed. The ability to take shots down the field with a healthy quarterback opened everything up. Allen finished the game throwing for more than 10 yards per pass attempt (only Mahomes is better this season) and four touchdowns. Cam Newton didn't pass for a single touchdown through two games.
I think the Panthers -- even with Allen -- project to be nearly as good as the Texans overall. They have advantages over Houston in other positions and rank second in the NFL in opponent yards per play this season, behind only the Patriots (4.3). My projection in this matchup is Carolina +3.2, so I definitely have some interest at +5 and am curious to see if this keeps trickling higher during the week.