The 'dogs were finally barking in Week 3 with a 10-4 ATS record heading into Sunday night's game. If you backed the teams starting new quarterbacks, you went 5-1 (the Dolphins being the loser -- shocking). A few of those covers may have needed some good fortune (I'm primarily looking at you, Pittsburgh), but I'll dig into some of the recent box scores and break down two games that immediately stood out to me for Week 4.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 4 lines I'm investing in now
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2, 38)
While I was heavy in Vikings teaser usage in spots that I could get them from -8.5 to -2.5, I regretted not laying the points straight as well. It's easy to say after seeing the 34-14 final score, but there were signs in the Vikings' Week 2 matchup in Green Bay that pointed to them performing much better than the result showed. Minnesota outgained the Packers 7.0 yards per play (YPP) to 4.9, but they turned the ball over four times and had 65 more yards in penalties. The Vikings still only lost the game 21-16 and had multiple chances in the fourth quarter to win the game.
So what does this have to do with Week 4? The Vikings have shown three dominant performances despite only being 2-1 (they crushed the Falcons out of the gate in Week 1). I really like the +2 in their matchup against a Bears team that has only managed 19 points through their first two games this season. Sure, Chicago has a pending Monday Night Football game in Washington, but there isn't much that I anticipate can happen there that will change my position on Minnesota. My projection is Vikings +0.1, so at nearly a coin flip game I will happily take the two points with the better team against Chicago on a short week.
Pick: Vikings +2
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 43.5)
Check this box score out from Week 3:
Team A: 436 yards and 6.0 YPP, 26 first downs, six red zone trips, 24 points
Team B: 239 yards and 4.7 YPP, 11 first downs, one red zone trip, 20 points
The new-look Steelers with Mason Rudolph under center got absolutely destroyed Sunday in San Francisco -- except in the final score. In fact, Pittsburgh was holding a 20-17 lead in the final minutes before a James Conner fumble gave the 49ers the ball on the Pittsburgh 24-yard line. While that turnover proved costly, the 49ers turned it over a total of five times in this game. Historically, the team that turns it over five times or more in a single game in the regular season only wins 5.96% of the time (18-284-1 since 2001). Think of it this way: The Steelers played so poorly that they still lost this game despite San Francisco gifting them the ball an extra five times.
While at first glance it appears the Steelers played fine without Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday, that wasn't the case. The Bengals, however, led the Bills with under two minutes to go in Buffalo despite turning it over four times themselves. Both of these teams are likely bottom-third in the NFL, but I don't rate Pittsburgh that much higher than Cincinnati. My projection is Bengals +3.0 exactly, so I'm taking the +5.
Pick: Bengals +5
Early Week 4 lines
At completion of Sunday night game
Thursday
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 47)
Sunday
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4, 46)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Off)
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 54) at Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Chargers (-16, 45) at Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots (-7, 43.5) at Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 44.5)
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 46)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (Off)
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 47) at Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (Off)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 38)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2, 38)
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 46) at New Orleans Saints
Monday
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 43.5)
Byes: New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers