The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week we'll highlight some of the instances where our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI feels is the right side but also why.
2019 ATS record: 5-13
2019 closing line value: 13-5
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sept. 17.
Utah Utes (-4) at USC Trojans
9 p.m. ET Friday
FPI prediction:
Kedon Slovis came back down to earth a little last week, but let's be clear -- USC has the offensive advantage here. Utah's Zack Moss is a nice running back, but the Utes are limited as a run-first offense.
Consider: Utah and USC both played BYU. The Utes won and the Trojans lost. But despite USC having a tough day offensively, the Trojans still averaged an almost identical yards per play as Utah (5.72 vs 5.75).
All of this is to say, if both teams bring their best game on offense, USC's aerial attack will trounce Utah's ground game.
FPI pick: USC +4
Nevada Wolf Pack (-15.5) at UTEP Miners
8 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Nevada by 6.2
FPI has no love for UTEP -- our 129th-best FBS team. But this is all about UTEP's opponent.
If it weren't for Nevada's special teams, the Wolf Pack would not have pulled off an upset against Purdue. In that game, they had two punts to the 1-yard line, recovered two fumbles and kicked a winning field goal. That's great in the moment, but special teams is much less predictive than offense or defense, and it wasn't Nevada's only good special-teams performance of the year. As a result, the Wolf Pack are a little overrated in FPI's mind and laying a few too many points on the road.
FPI pick: UTEP +15.5
Western Michigan Broncos at Syracuse Orange (-6)
Noon ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Western Michigan by 2
It's hard to imagine having this big of a quarterback advantage in a game where the underdog has the superior signal-caller. That's exactly why FPI thinks Western Michigan should be the favorite. Jon Wassink is a top-10 QBR quarterback thus far and Tommy DeVito has been a bottom-20 QBR quarterback.
Syracuse and Western Michigan both suffered surprising blowouts two weeks ago at the hands of teams that went on to lose in Week 3 (to Maryland and Michigan State, respectively). The difference? Michigan State is, in FPI's mind, better than Maryland, so that the Broncos lost to the better team -- and by less -- means we downgraded them less.
FPI pick: Western Michigan +6
New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos (-4)
4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: New Mexico by 9.7
The Aggies have been frequenting Ryan McGee's weekly bottom 10 -- and for good reason. Want some more bottom 10s for New Mexico State? How about offensive efficiency. And defensive efficiency. They've been that bad. And yes, that's adjusted for opponent, so playing Alabama and Washington State has been taken into account.
Even after a defensive downgrade following a 66-14 loss to Notre Dame, we still think the Lobos ought to be laying more than four points at home, considering their opponent.
FPI pick: New Mexico -4