College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 4, we remind you that the title of "Best in the West" is taken, look at how easily (or not) the best ATS teams are covering so far, and identify an opening total that could drop significantly with tomorrow's injury updates.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling, and why.
Buy: Washington Huskies
Washington is a top-10 team in a top-25 suit, so don't be fooled. Under a layer that includes three bowl losses to excellent teams, lack of respect for Cal (their Week 2 opponent) and whatever else is distracting the pollsters, lies the same talented, well-coached league overlord that's sitting with 32 wins over the past three seasons and two trophies at the end of the past three Pac-12 championship games. What makes this team more explosive than last year's is both improved quarterback play with Jacob Eason and the diversity of offensive weapons at the pivot's disposal. Last season, Myles Gaskin was a 259-carry workhorse, and only two other players scored more than four touchdowns as the wideouts struggled.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos (-3)
4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Bob Davie is 5-2 against the Aggies, and the series hasn't been priced like this since the disastrous Mike Locksley era. The number is more than reasonable if you like the Lobos.
UConn Huskies at Indiana Hoosiers (-28)
Noon ET, Saturday (Big Ten Network)
Four scores is a lot for a team that put so much into last week and got so little in return. The Huskies hung with fellow Big Ten lightweight Illinois last time out.
Toledo Rockets (-6.5) at Colorado State Rams
10:15 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
The Rams' defense looks like it can consistently do its part, but a total of 71 doesn't look like it's yet accounted for CSU quarterback Colin Hill's likely absence.
Oregon Ducks (-10) at Stanford Cardinal
7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Normally we'd take interest in the Cardinal as a home dog of this size against a team they've consistently been more physical than in the past, but USC and UCF have exposed a speed issue on the Stanford defense that must be solved in recruiting, not the week of the Oregon game.
SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs (-10)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (FS1)
SMU hasn't been favored in the Iron Skillet game since Dennis Franchione (with defensive lieutenant Gary Patterson in tow) first arrived to coach TCU in 1998. This is the lowest series price, home or away, since TCU laid the Ponies 10 in Fran's second year.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ACC Network Extra)
The Mountaineers have accomplished a lot in the past decade, but being priced like this on the road against an ACC opponent is a brand new badge of honor and might be taking the respect a bit too far. North Carolina's bandwagon has emptied after the loss to Wake Forest, which could mean there's opportunity again in backing the Heels.
Tough spot
Think twice before backing teams facing conditions that often portend a lackluster performance.
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3)
Noon ET, Saturday (Fox)
Coaches say a lot of nonsensical things about open dates, but one thing most agree on is that when you're healthy and playing well, you'd rather just keep playing than take a week off from competition.
That's the situation the Badgers are in, having to take a too-early open date after shutting out South Florida and Central Michigan by a combined 110 points. Michigan, however, entered its Week 3 open date needing to regroup a bit after a major scare from Army and now enters this game with something to prove to its restless fan base.
It could be argued that it's a good time to face this talented Michigan squad while it's only a couple of games into a new offense that's still finding its way under a first-time playcaller, but the Badgers are otherwise drawing the Wolverines at the wrong time.
It's also worth remembering that the coach with the freshest scouting report on the Badgers is Central Michigan's Jim McElwain, who worked for Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor last season.
Around the slate
Week 4 sees four weekday games, including the return of Thursday action with Houston visiting Tulane (-2.5).
Friday features Utah (-3) visiting USC in the Utes' first-ever turn as road chalk in a series that has seen the home team go 7-1 straight up and against the spread since Utah joined the Pac-12.
Also Friday: Florida International at Louisiana Tech (-9) and Air Force at Boise State (-9.5). Boise has taken the past two from the Falcons, but prior to that Air Force had won three straight, all as TD-plus underdogs.
Of the 45 FBS matchups on Saturday, there are 16 road favorites, six of which are conference favorites and seven of which are double-digit chalk.
There are no opening lines yet for Wake Forest, Army, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina and Fresno State, which all have dates with FCS opponents.
Last week there were no matchups pitting ranked teams, but this week there are three:
No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-14): Irish coach Brian Kelly is a double-digit underdog for the sixth time at Notre Dame. He's 2-3 ATS, the most recent entry last year's 30-3 Cotton Bowl playoff loss to Clemson as 10.5-point dogs.
No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin (-3): Six straight ATS losses has Jim Harbaugh feeling the heat from the Michigan faithful, while the Badgers' eye-popping 525-yard margin against Central Michigan was impressive, regardless of the foe.
No. 8 Auburn Tigers at No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies (-3): The Tigers finally found their running game last week against an overmatched Kent team, while the Aggies may have found in freshman Isaiah Spiller a dynamite replacement for injured tailback Jashaun Corbin.
Notable spreads
Clemson (-42 vs. Charlotte), Alabama (-39 vs. Southern Mississippi) and Ohio State (-37 vs. Miami-Ohio) are a combined 5-4 ATS and have outscored foes by an average of almost five touchdowns per game (with five Power 5 schools among those nine opponents), so it's no surprise that visits from Group of 5 teams to these three heavyweights account for the biggest prices on the Week 4 board.
Baylor opened at -27.5 on the road against Rice, making the Bears the biggest road chalk in Week 4.
LSU is next, laying Vanderbilt 20 points in Nashville. The only other game that features a price point of more than two touchdowns between Power 5 teams is Washington State (-19) vs. UCLA.
There are only three totals near 70 this week, with a price of 70.5 hung on Toledo (-6.5) at Colorado State, 70.5 on Oklahoma State at Texas (-6.5), and 69.5 on New Mexico State at New Mexico (-3). Of those six teams, only Texas is 3-0 to the over this season.
California (Pk) at Ole Miss at 43.5 and Wyoming at Tulsa (-6.5) at 45 are low totals by modern college standards, but the lowest of the week is the total of 40 on Michigan State (-7) at Northwestern. Cal and Tulsa are 3-0 to the under thus far.
Nine teams can claim unblemished 3-0 ATS records in 2019, but that only tells you who has been undervalued in the past. For a simple clue to future value, check out not just the pass/fail result, but the margins, where Kansas State and UCF emerge as the best bets. The Wildcats have covered their three games by a total of 53.5 points, getting the money by at least two touchdowns in each. The Knights have covered by an aggregate margin of 47 points and have landed all three with more than one possession to spare. The rest of the 3-0 group is not quite as woefully underpriced by the oddsmakers so far:
Louisiana 40
SMU 37
Louisville 28.5
Texas A&M 17
Oklahoma State 14
Kentucky 12
Auburn 8Akron, Florida International, Georgia Tech, UMass, Texas State, UCLA and Virginia Tech are all 0-3 ATS, but the Hokies (-45) have posted the worst ATS scoring margin. Next up are the Minutemen (-44.5) and Zips (-42.5), two teams that most ratings had pegged among the nation's worst in the preseason. The lesson is that there's really no limit to how bad a team can be, and that value doesn't have to be accompanied by a wholly surprising performance.
Impact injuries
No games are off the board this week, but there are a few quarterback injury questions that could impact the lines.
Toledo Rockets (-6.5) at Colorado State Rams: Rams quarterback Colin Hill (doubtful) left the game in the third quarter at Arkansas. His status has not been announced, but another ACL injury is feared and there will be an early-week update.
Boston College Eagles (-7.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers quarterback McLane Carter (probable) suffered a concussion in the Week 2 loss to Iowa and is day-to-day. The Knights were off last week and there should be an update from coach Chris Ash soon.
Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles (-8): Cardinals starter Jawon Pass (questionable) was hurt in the opener against Notre Dame and did not play last week as Malik Cunningham started Louisville's win at Western Kentucky.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami Hurricanes (-29): Quinten Dormady (questionable) was injured in Week 2's blowout loss at Wisconsin and David Green started the Chips' Week 3 victory over Akron.