As the Panthers were driving late in the fourth quarter down 20-14 Thursday night, everything came down to a fourth-and-1 play at the Tampa Bay-yard line. As Carolina lined up to run their play, the Buccaneers called a timeout.
There was a replay during the timeout of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and head coach Bruce Arians talking to each other and Bowles pointing something out on the field before telling Arians to use the timeout. It was an incredibly tough spot to be in. Tampa Bay only had two timeouts remaining, and if the Panthers were to score and take a 21-20 lead, the Buccaneers would be left with just one timeout and roughly one minute remaining to go win the game. Bowles was shaking his head in disgust that he even had to use the timeout, but it paid off in a massive way.
The Panthers ran a play that I have been hoping a team would use ever since the Eagles used their Philly Special on fourth down in the Super Bowl that resulted in Nick Foles catching a touchdown pass. Teams duplicated it last season with success, and if you aren't familiar with the play it's a direct snap to the running back, who then pitches it to a receiver in reverse. The quarterback sneaks out of the backfield and has generally been wide-open for a pass from the receiver.
It's just a matter of time before teams catch on, however, and I've been waiting for an offense to run a fake Philly Special where the running back keeps the football and runs it for positive yardage as the defense hesitates on the fake reverse pitch. This is exactly what Carolina ran with Christian McCaffrey Thursday night, but Bowles sniffed it out the entire way. Tampa Bay had three different defenders hounding McCaffrey, and despite his best efforts, he came up short and the Buccaneers won the game.
Bowles is the real deal, and I'm buying his defense this week. I'll be breaking down some other intriguing results from Week 2, and how they can better our betting process for Week 3.
Portfolio checkup
Buy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense
It's still early in the season but it's clear at this point: Tampa Bay's new defensive coordinator (Bowles) is making an immediate impact. The Buccaneers were tied with the Bengals and Dolphins last season, allowing 6.1 yards per play (YPP) to opponents. Only the Raiders were worse (6.3 YPP). So far this season, Tampa Bay ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing just 4.6 YPP -- behind only the Patriots, Bears and Bills. The Buccaneers have faced the stronger offenses of that group.
New acquisitions to the defense are helping Bowles as well. Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh and No. 5 overall pick Devin White have all made positive impacts from the get-go. The Buccaneers defense held the 49ers to just 17 points (San Francisco dropped 41 on the Bengals in Week 2) and the Panthers to 14 points in Carolina.
While the Arians-Jameis Winston offense hasn't been as electric as everyone initially hoped, there's really nowhere to go from here but up. As Winston gets accustomed to the new offense, I expect them to make strides. With this Bowles defense playing at an elite level, Tampa Bay is certainly a team worth watching for in the NFC South (Drew Brees out for six weeks and Newton doesn't look 100 percent). I'm still bullish on the Atlanta Falcons, but the Buccaneers at +1100 to win the NFC South caught my eye. With a home game against Daniel Jones in his first start for the Giants here in Week 3, it's likely Tampa Bay will improve to 2-1. I don't think the +1100 price will be getting any better any time soon.
Sell
Los Angeles Chargers offense
The prospects of the Dolphins and Jets moving forward is obviously bleak, but the Chargers are a team that we can likely still take advantage of in the betting markets while we'd be paying premiums at this point trying to bet against Miami and New York. I have been betting Los Angeles unders since the season began (only 1-1 so far thanks to overtime against the Colts).
The Chargers offensive line is in shambles, and while I think Austin Ekeler is an OK replacement for Melvin Gordon, it still makes it much tougher when you aren't able to field Gordon. Tight end Hunter Henry went down with an injury prior to Week 2, and receiver Mike Williams isn't 100 percent either. Philip Rivers is still a capable quarterback, but the days of him slinging it efficiently 40-plus times and leading touchdown drives may be behind him. The Chargers play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL, so I'll continue to look to bet their unders when the numbers line up (like they do in Week 3 which I broke down in my first look piece on Sunday night).
Hold
I mentioned in our Week 2 piece that I would likely be holding out until Baltimore's matchup in Kansas City to make concrete adjustments to their team projections. While they dominated the Dolphins 59-10 in Week 1, so did the Patriots in Week 2 (43-0). The Ravens weren't bad at home against the Cardinals this past Sunday in a 23-17 win, but they certainly weren't great either.
Ravens-Chiefs is the Week 3 slate standout, and we've already seen this total balloon up to 55 from the opener of 51.5. I understand the thought process with the move, but if we aren't 100 percent sure this Ravens offense is elite, should they be priced like they are? Baltimore still fields one of the best defenses in the NFL, so this matchup isn't going to be a cakewalk for Patrick Mahomes either.
In fact, through two weeks only 23% of his red zone passes have graded as successful (27th in the NFL). In 2018 he was No. 1 at 52%, leading the best red zone offense in the league. Some Kansas City regression shouldn't come as a surprise, and everything has me looking at a bet on the under 55 in this matchup. I'm in no rush to jump in quite yet since the market has only been moving up since open, but I'll be keeping an eye on this one at 55 or better.
Early line moves: Week 3
Agree
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Total: Opened 42
Now: 44
I recognized that the Bengals-Bills total at 42 was too low in the first look piece this week. It's been bet up to 44 since. My projection lines up with the current market number now, but I still do think there is more upside with the pass frequency from new Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor and a Bills' offense that might actually be above average (5.8 YPP ranks 13th so far through two games). At the very least, keep an eye on these Bengals totals going forward if you missed this one already in Week 3.
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Opened Cowboys -17
Now: Cowboys -21.5
As much as I didn't want to believe last week that the Dolphins were as bad as they clearly are, the move on the Cowboys from -17 to -21.5 is probably legitimate. Through three quarters, Miami mustered up just 38 total yards of offense. 38! I'm still extremely bullish on the Cowboys' new-look RPO offense under Kellen Moore, and while my projection comes in closer to Dallas -20.5 and the move through 21 may be a tad overblown, I'm not going to be getting cute with Miami again.
Disagree
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 51.5
Now: 55
As noted earlier, I disagree with the move to the over in Baltimore-Kansas City. My projection is 52.2, and at 55 or better I'm looking to play under.
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Opened Steelers -1
Now: 49ers -7
I also think the move on the 49ers as high as -7 hosting the Steelers in Week 3 is too extreme. Ben Roethlisberger is officially out for the remainder of the season, but quarterback Mason Rudolph looked capable against the Seahawks, throwing for two second-half touchdowns.
People were already questioning if Big Ben is just getting too old during his first half prior to the injury. He really struggled, and while I still think there's a drop-off to Rudolph under center, it isn't this extreme. The early openers on Sunday prior to the Steelers' game were PK, and then Pittsburgh was immediately bet to -1. An eight-point adjustment isn't justified here, and I like the Steelers at +7 or better.