What did we learn in Week 2? The 14-1 ATS angle fading the team on the road in back-to-back weeks to start the season was squashed. The Miami Dolphins might very well be the worst team in the history of the league. Dak Prescott has catapulted into the MVP discussion as a front-runner under Kellen Moore's new RPO offense. Oh, and injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees could shape the future of the season in both the AFC and NFC (an MRI is pending for each quarterback).
Let's take a look at the early lines that are available for Week 3 and if any are worth grabbing now.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 3 lines I'm investing in now
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6, 42)
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor's offense looked sharp in Week 1. Cincinnati went into Seattle and averaged 6.1 yards per play and Andy Dalton threw for 418 yards on 35-of-51 passing. The offense wasn't as crisp in Week 2 against the 49ers, and the second-worst defense in the NFL last season showed as the Bengals gave up 41 to San Francisco on 8.4 yards per play. Similar to getting out in front of Dallas Cowboys overs this past week (more on this soon), I like the prospect of betting Cincinnati overs while the number is still relatively low (my projection is 43.8). The Bengals are passing at the highest frequency in the league, and Buffalo's offense projects to have its way with the Cincinnati defense.
Pick: Over 42
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-21, 47.5)
Moore's RPO offense came through yet again Sunday. Prescott followed up his 405-yard, four-touchdown performance in the opener with 269 yards and three touchdowns through the air on 26-of-30 passing Sunday. He also added 69 yards on the ground to go with Ezekiel Elliott's 111. The Giants and Redskins defenses might very well be below average relative to the rest of the NFL this season, but what does that make the Dolphins? After giving up 102 points through their first two games, there probably isn't a better matchup to ride the Dallas overs train again than in Week 3.
Pick: Over 47.5
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48)
The impact of injuries piling up on the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers was fully evident Sunday in Detroit. The defense for Los Angeles was fantastic and held the Lions to only 13 points, but Philip Rivers and the offense managed only 10. The Chargers play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and without Hunter Henry or a healthy Mike Williams, the passing game takes a major hit. Without Melvin Gordon in the picture and having to field a depleted offensive line, I'm not sure where Los Angeles turns for consistent offense in Week 3 against a stout Houston defense. With the anticipation of a slower-paced game and lack of weapons on the field offensively, my projection comes in at 45.8.
Pick: Under 48
Early Week 3 lines
At completion of Sunday night game
Thursday
Tennessee Titans (-2, 40) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (Off)
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 54.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6, 42)
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-8, 43.5)
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (Off)
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-21, 47.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-17, 47)
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5, 43.5)
Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 45.5) at Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 48)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48)
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Off)
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (Off)
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 51) at Cleveland Browns
Monday
Chicago Bears (-4.5, 42) at Washington Redskins