Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
Week 7 is one in which a number of different teams are viable. Seven different teams have between a 70 and 76 percent chance of winning according to FPI. As a result, no team is currently picked in over 20 percent of entries.
There are also two teams (Tampa Bay and Indianapolis) that are appearing on this list for the first -- and probably only -- time all season, as they have relatively easy home matchups on paper. On the other hand, top contenders like Philadelphia, Kansas City and both Los Angeles teams are usable.
Here are your best Week 7 Eliminator picks:
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Line: Colts -7.5
FPI chance to win: 76 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 12 percent selected
Believe it or not, the Colts are the biggest FPI favorites of the week. And while they still have home games remaining against the Dolphins, Titans and Giants, this is by far the best spot on the schedule to use Indianapolis. Buffalo will be starting Derek Anderson, who was signed less than two weeks ago. The Colts are very banged up, but the Bills are the third-worst team in the NFL according to FPI, and they are playing their fourth road game in the last five games. This is as good a spot for the Colts as you could ask for.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns
Line: Buccaneers -3
FPI chance to win: 74 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 4 percent selected
Tampa Bay is the second-biggest FPI favorite of the week despite being only a 3-point favorite in Vegas. It's the first time the Bucs have been favored by at least a field goal in over a full year. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in offensive efficiency but dead last in defensive efficiency. However, the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith earlier in the week, and the Browns rank sixth worst in offensive efficiency, so this should be a decent spot for the defense to show up.
This is the only game the Buccaneers will play as larger than 63 percent favorites according to FPI, so there are no other weeks where you can use Tampa Bay. The Bucs aren't being widely picked, so this is a chance to be contrarian.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Line: Falcons -5.5
FPI chance to win: 70 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 16 percent selected
The Giants have the second-worst record in the NFL since the start of last season, behind only the Browns. FPI doesn't view the Giants as quite that bad (11th-worst team), but they are still a team to fade on the road. The Falcons may be the most banged-up team in the NFL, but they still rank fourth in offensive efficiency and have scored at least 31 points in all four home games this season.
The Giants haven't scored more than 31 points since Week 15 of the 2015 season, when Tom Coughlin still roamed the sidelines. There is one other chance to use Atlanta -- the Falcons host the Cardinals in Week 15 -- but this is a fine spot to deploy the Falcons.
Other options
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
Line: Eagles -4.5
FPI chance to win: 70 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 1 percent selected
This is a case of the better team having extra rest at home. The Eagles are coming off a victory on Thursday, while the Panthers are playing their second straight road game. The key to this game is Philadelphia's run defense. The Panthers average the fourth-most rushing yards per game, while the Eagles' defense allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Last year, the Eagles held Carolina to just 80 yards rushing on 25 carries in a 28-23 victory.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Line: Rams -9.5
FPI chance to win: 73 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 14 percent selected
The Rams are the biggest favorites based on the betting line this week, and you can make a case for taking them most weeks. However, this week Los Angeles is somewhat chalky based on the early picks in Eliminator. As a result, you might be better off saving the Rams. That said, the 49ers are on a short week, coming off a tough loss Monday night against the Packers, so even though the Rams are on the road, this should be a relatively safe Los Angeles victory.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
Line: Chargers -6.5
FPI chance to win: 72 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 6 percent selected
The Chargers have scored 26 or more points in every game this season; the Titans have not scored more than 26 points all season. Los Angeles is the third-biggest Vegas favorite and fourth-biggest FPI favorite this week yet is on track to be selected by less than 10 percent of remaining entrants. All of that adds up to a great Eliminator pick, but there is one reason to save the Chargers: According to FPI, the Chargers will be the biggest favorite of the week three more times this season (Weeks 11, 12 and 14).
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Chiefs -6
FPI chance to win: 70 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 17 percent selected
The Chiefs are the most commonly selected team this week in Eliminator, which makes sense considering FPI gives them a 70 percent chance to win and they are 6-point favorites in Vegas. But the Chiefs still have home games remaining against the Broncos, Raiders and Cardinals, so it might be better to save them and go with a less common pick.