The second week of the NFL season can be difficult to analyze. On one hand, it's important not to obsess over Week 1 results and forget everything we knew going into the season. (There's a reason why Football Outsiders calls this "National Jump to Conclusions Week.") On the other hand, you do want to incorporate what you've learned in Week 1.
The line for Monday night's Seattle-Chicago matchup seems to lean a bit more toward the latter than the former, and that makes this game our Week 2 upset watch.
Upset Watch: Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears both lost in Week 1, but it was fairly clear that the Bears played a better game. They had the lead for most of the night, and all indications suggest they had a tougher opponent. Chicago is 13th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for Week 1, the highest rating for a team that lost its Week 1 game. Seattle is 26th.
However, that's just the rating from one game.
ESPN's FPI also has Seattle higher than Chicago after combining preseason projections with Week 1's data. Before the season, Seattle was 16th with Chicago 24th. Even after Week 1, Seattle is still 19th with Chicago 21st.
Yes, there are a ton of reasons to be excited about the Bears. The offense could blossom with second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and first-year head coach Matt Nagy. It looked like this was happening early on in Sunday night's loss to Green Bay. But in the second half of the game, the Bears offense got conservative and Trubisky's throws became tentative, with the young quarterback having trouble reading the field. It's not enough to look at Trubisky and Nagy, compare them to Jared Goff and Sean McVay, and assume the Bears are this season's Los Angeles Rams. What the Rams did in 2017 is exceedingly rare, and it's unlikely the Bears can improve to that extent.
People are even more excited about the Bears defense, especially with the addition of pass-rusher Khalil Mack. But defense is much more difficult to predict than offense. Mack could give the Bears a ferocious defense, like they had in the first half against the Packers. Or teams could figure out how to double-team Mack and it's possible the rest of the Bears' front won't be able to make up for that, which is what happened as they tired out in the second half against the Packers.
Now, the offense that's going to figure out how to block Mack is probably not the Seahawks. Make no mistake, the Bears will be pressuring Russell Wilson on Monday night.
In Week 1, according to ESPN Stats & Information tracking data, Wilson was under duress on 42.5 percent of pass plays, which ranked 29th in the NFL. Chicago had Packers quarterbacks under duress on 31 percent of pass plays, which ranked 13th. Right tackle Germain Ifedi, who has never lived up to his first-round draft status, is primarily going to be responsible for blocking Mack, probably with lots of help from rookie blocking tight end Will Dissly. Ifedi led the NFL with 20 penalty flags in 2017 and also ranked in the bottom 10 at his position in snaps per blown block, according to Sports Info Solutions charting.
No quarterback is particularly good under pressure. But the good news for Seattle is that Wilson is better than most. Last season, he ranked fourth in the NFL in DVOA when pressured. It was the third year out of the past four in which he ranked in the top five in this metric.
The bad news for Seattle is that Chicago's defense is also pretty good even when it doesn't bring pass pressure. Last season, the Bears ranked 10th in defensive DVOA when there was no pressure.
Wilson wants to look for his receivers on the left side and in the middle of the field. Kyle Fuller is on the offensive right side, and he's the clear No. 1 cornerback in Chicago. Sports Info Solutions charting ranked him sixth in adjusted success rate in coverage last season. Prince Amukamara, on the offensive left, ranked 63rd. And overall last season, Chicago ranked 20th in defense against left-side passes, 29th against middle passes and seventh against right-side passes.
Wilson will be without his top receiver, Doug Baldwin, so somebody else is going to need to step up and make plays. The Bears always keep their cornerbacks to specific sides, so the Seahawks can dictate matchups by lining up their best remaining receiver, Tyler Lockett, on the left side or in the slot.
The other thing Seattle's offense needs to do to win this game: Go against its stated desire to run the ball heavily. The Seahawks are very bad when they hand the ball to their running backs. They ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA in 2017, but dead last once we take Wilson's own runs out of the equation. In Week 1 of 2018, they ranked dead last again. The Bears' run defense, meanwhile, was above average against the run in 2017 and ranked second in DVOA in Week 1, trailing only the Rams.
Finally, the Seahawks need to take advantage of the field position they will get from rookie punter Michael Dickson, whose performance so far has been otherworldly. In the preseason against Minnesota, Dickson had two punts of 55-plus yards that ended inside the 5-yard line -- that's something no NFL punter did more than three times in all of 2017.
In his first regular-season game last Sunday, Dickson had a net punting average of 57.5 yards, the second-highest of any punter in a single game since 1991. Even after adjusting for altitude, Football Outsiders metrics estimate that Dickson punts had a net value of 3.8 points' worth of field position. Kansas City was the only other team with punts over 1.5 points in value, and that's solely because the Chiefs stripped the ball from Chargers returner J.J. Jones, not because of particularly strong punting.
Yes, he's just a punter. But those fabulous punts mean more Bears drives starting deep in their own end, which makes it harder to score. That means more punts back to the Seahawks, and shorter fields for Seattle's struggling offense to cover.
Cover Watch: Detroit (+6) at San Francisco
Here's another line where fans might be overreacting to Week 1, in this case because the Detroit Lions looked abysmal against the New York Jets on Monday night. Now the Lions are stuck traveling to play the San Francisco 49ers on a short week. On the other hand, these are essentially the same players who went 9-7 the previous two seasons. It's even the same offensive coordinator. The main changes were the head coach and the defensive coordinator. The Lions are simply not going to come out Sunday looking as discombobulated as they looked in their opener.
That's especially true on special teams. Yes, special teams were only part of the 48-17 final score. But based on Football Outsiders metrics, Detroit special teams cost them more than 14 points compared to average, between missed field goals on one hand and field position lost on punts and kickoffs on the other hand. Even a bad special-teams unit doesn't have two games that bad in a row.
Jimmy Garoppolo finally had a game in which he struggled, throwing three interceptions in Week 1. The 49ers ended up 30th in DVOA for the week, ahead of only the Lions and Bills. Now, that's leaps and bounds ahead of the Lions and Bills, who were horrific in Week 1, but nonetheless it was not a good start for the 49ers.
Both teams are also dealing with injuries to major players, but the Lions seem to be doing better on that front. Pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah was limited in practice with a shoulder injury but expects to play Sunday. The 49ers' No. 1 receiver, Marquise Goodwin, missed practice Wednesday with a thigh bruise and is unlikely to play this weekend.