College football season is back, which means that our betting experts are as well. Every Thursday, our CFB experts -- Phil Steele, Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica -- will pick two common games and then as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file, for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Previews for Top 25 teams | Ultimate betting guide | Week 1 best bets
Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles at Atlanta, Georgia
Steele: This is the highest-ranked matchup ever for an opening week with No. 1 versus No. 3, and I believe it will live up to its billing. The talent is stacked on both sides of the ball with NFL-caliber players, as all the units are ranked in my top 25 unit rankings. Alabama's biggest edge may be with the stronger offensive line; Florida State has the special teams edge. The Seminoles only lose three lettermen off last year's defense and get back Derwin James, who missed almost all of 2016 due to an injury. He may be the nation's top defensive player.
Nick Saban is 9-0 versus his former assistants, but he has yet to face one that has won a national title. This game could
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Alabama 26, Florida State 23
Fallica: While it isn't a game I would be running to play, if I had to I would simply say to myself: At some point I just need to trust Nick Saban in this type of season-opener.
In five previous season-openers at Alabama versus ranked opponents -- three coming against Top-10 teams -- Saban's team has won all five by double digits. Who knows how the week will play out, but at the time of writing, FSU WR Auden Tate is nursing an injury and LB Matthew Thomas' status is in doubt. Will the FSU offensive line be any better? It better be as Deondre Francois took a beating last year, getting sacked 34 times, including six times against Clemson. If the WR core is basically Noonie Murray and a couple of unproven guys and you're relying on a combo of a true freshman (Cam Akers) and Jacques Patrick and a questionable offensive line to score points against Alabama, that's a problem.
The FSU defense improved dramatically as the year went on, but I think based on what we know right now, Alabama has more answers on offense and is the safer play. One will never look foolish for picking Alabama to win a football game.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Florida State 21
Coughlin: I think the storyline of Nick Saban facing his former LSU assistant Jimbo Fisher is being a little overblown, seeing as how they do not stay that in touch -- Fisher said the last time they chatted was at the NFL draft. That said, I think it should be pointed out that Saban is 8-2 ATS vs. former assistants -- that's enough for me to lean in the direction of the Tide.
It also seems to me, as I read some of the articles out of Tallahassee, that the 'Noles might be coming into the game not at full strength -- injuries are starting to pile up. Alabama comes in with more proven guys in the playmaking category, with Jalen Hurts (Saban's first returning starter at QB since 2013) and RB Bo Scarborough, who rushed for over 800 yards in 2016.
Last season, Alabama scored 15 non-offensive touchdowns, which led the country. While I'm not saying that the Crimson Tide will repeat that effort in 2017, I like being on the side of the team where those types of things happen, and they happen because of the way Saban prepares his team. I'm giving the points.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Florida State 17
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5) vs. No. 17 Florida Gators at Arlington, Texas
Steele: Michigan has the fewest returning starters in the country (five) and its young team (No. 128 in my experience chart) is away from home. Florida has 14 returning starters and beat Georgia, LSU and Iowa away from home last year. The Gators have slight edges on offense and defense and a bigger edge on special teams (No. 3 versus No. 38). Florida is a top-10 team in my rankings and I think Michigan will be playing its best football at the end of the year. The Gators have eight suspended players, including two starters, but their special teams and experience edge will help them pull off the upset in Arlington, Texas.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Michigan 24
Fallica: We really don't know much about either offense here, as Michigan will no longer have RB De'Veon Smith and every productive WR/TE from last year. Florida has its own unknowns at QB and will not have Antonio Calloway and others because of suspension. McElwain's decision here is interesting: Does he go with the guy who has started some at Notre Dame, but only recently arrived in Gainesville (Malik Zaire), or does he go with Feleipe Franks, who has no playing experience but has been in Gainesville for two years now.
I do think Michigan is a tad underrated entering the season. That defensive line with Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary should be nasty and help take some pressure off an inexperienced secondary. And Don Brown's track record suggests he'll figure it out. If Florida does indeed have the best offensive line in the SEC, they will need to play like it here.
Much like the Alabama-Florida State game, I wouldn't be running to a window to play this one, as it's a total toss-up game where no result would really surprise me. But because I have to make a pick, I'll go with the favorite in a really good, competitive game.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 28, Florida 24
Coughlin: If you like two teams who just line up and try to knock each other around, this should be a fantastic game to watch.
We know about the Florida suspensions. We've read plenty about the teams' back-and-forth over proper pre-game depth chart and roster releases. Florida has not announced its starting QB, and I can't believe how many opinions there are on who it will be. Does the 41-7 butt-whipping Michigan gave the Gators in the Citrus Bowl after the 2015 season mean anything? All items worth considering.
While the Gators only return five starters on defense, there are plenty of guys coming back who played a ton at the end of the 2016 season, when the team was struck by injuries. The idea of Michigan losing all that defensive talent (10 starters on defense) seems a bit much to me against a tough opponent in Week 1. I also think Wilton Speight and the Wolverines offense will take a little time to jell, and will really miss Jake Butt and their two other top pass-catchers from a year ago. I'll take the points in a tough game.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Michigan 12, Florida 10
Saturday games
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5)
Steele: Marshall is 8-1 in the series with three straight wins by at least 20 points. In their last meeting in 2014, the Thundering Herd won 42-27. Marshall is 10-2 in home openers with its only two losses to ranked teams. Miami won their last six last year to get to a bowl with an underclassman laden team, and now are the third most experienced team in the country. Marshall has just 13 returning starters, but does bring in some very highly touted Power 5 transfers and should have a bounce-back season. Miami has lost nine straight road openers.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 28, Miami (OH) 21
UMass Minutemen (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Steele: Massachusetts has the advantage of having a game under its belt and teams usually make the most improvement from Week 1 to Week 2. This is Coastal Carolina's first game as an FBS member. They were 10-2 last year, but have just 10 returning starters and are No. 104 on my experience chart. Massachusetts was just 2-10 last year, but played the big boys tough in a lot of games and had three net close losses. Last week they led Hawai'i (a bowl team in 2016) by two touchdowns and only lost on a last-minute touchdown. Coastal Carolina head coach Joe Moglia is taking a leave of absence this year.
ATS pick: Massachusetts
Score: Massachusetts 37, Coastal Carolina 23
Kentucky Wildcats (-10) at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Steele: Last year Kentucky was in control of this game, winning 35-10 in the second quarter. Southern Miss got a 71-yard touchdown pass with 26 seconds left in the half, had a 399-19 yard edge from that play on and won on the road, 44-35. The Wildcats are No. 20 on my experience chart and the Golden Eagles come in at No. 85. Kentucky only has an FCS team on deck and will be fully focused on their revenge. Kentucky has solid edges on offense, defense and special teams and will not let up after blowing that 25-point lead last year.
ATS pick: Kentucky
Score: Kentucky 38, Southern Mississippi 23
Monday's games
No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers (-3) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: These schools last met in 1987, and while this is technically a neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) it's in Atlanta, the same city Georgia Tech calls home (Georgia Tech is 2 miles away, Tennessee is 211 miles away). The Volunteers are 3-0 when starting a season at a neutral site with the average win by 28 points per game. Tennessee has the benefit of having the entire month to prep for the option, held Appalachian State to 149 yards below its season average in last year's opener and only has Indiana State on deck. Tennessee is ranked higher on my experience chart and is an under-the-radar team after under-achieving last year.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 24
Nevada Wolf Pack at Northwestern Wildcats (-24)
Steele: Northwestern barely made it to a bowl last year, but has 16 returning starters including quarterback Clayton Thorson and running back Justin Jackson. Nevada has a new head coach with new systems on offense and defense. Nevada's leading rusher, James Butler, transferred to Iowa over the summer. Pat Fitzgerald gets his team fired up in the 'dog role, but is just 16-26 as a home favorite; only twice in his 11 years has he been a favorite of three touchdowns or more and not covered. It might take a quarter for Northwestern to figure out what Nevada is doing on both offense and defense scheme-wise. With Duke on deck, Northwestern doesn't figure to be adding to the margin in the fourth quarter.
ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Northwestern 34, Nevada 17
Troy Trojans at Boise State Broncos (-11.5)
Fallica: Boise State was a completely overvalued team last year, living off past reputation. The Broncos went 3-10 against the number, including 0-6 on the fabled "Blue Turf" and lost three games outright as at least a 7-point favorite. Their loss to Baylor in the bowl game was one of the more puzzling no-shows of the bowl season. QB Brett Rypien and WR Cedrick Wilson are back, but that's really it. Gone are RB Jeremy McNichols, WR Thomas Sperbeck and seven defensive starters.
Troy is a very dangerous underdog here. The Trojans return every skill player on offense with QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn being the most notable. The Trojans have been a super-live road underdog under Neal Brown, going 6-2 ATS, including a near miss in Death Valley last year against eventual national champion Clemson. Even the home fans aren't that excited for this afternoon kick, as it has been reported many tickets remain available. It all adds up to a potential Week 1 stunner.
ATS pick: Troy
Score: Troy 31, Boise State 28
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5)
Fallica: It's the 10-year anniversary of the Mountaineers' upset over Michigan and just last year Appalachian State took the at-the-time SEC East favorite Tennessee to overtime at Neyland Stadium. With a solid running game, sound execution and a propensity to take care of the football, Appalachian State is a live' dog here. This is a tough spot for Georgia, which nearly lost to Nicholls State in Athens last year and has been a terrible home favorite lately, failing to cover each of the last four instances dating back to 2015. Add to that a road game at Notre Dame next week and there could be some concern UGA is looking past this just a bit despite what Appalachian State nearly did last year.
The Georgia defense should be excellent, but questions remain at QB, WR and O-line. Ultimately, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will help wear down the Mountaineers defense, but I expect a struggle here.
ATS pick: App State
Score: Georgia 30, Appalachian State 17
California Golden Bears at North Carolina Tar Heels (-11)
Fallica: North Carolina lost seemingly everything from its offense -- QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Elijah Hood, WR Ryan Switzer, Bug Howard and Mack Hollins. It would be a surprise to see the offense -- especially early on -- equal the production of the past few seasons. UNC is also breaking in a couple new pieces in the secondary and the defensive line. That could spell trouble, as Cal has a big-time WR in Demetris Robertson. The defense can't help but be better with new head coach Justin Wilcox and DC Tim DeRuyter. Beau Baldwin should be a solid fit as OC, too. The Bears aren't going to win many games this season, but as bad as things went last year in Berkeley, they still managed to beat Texas, Utah, Oregon and UCLA.
UNC has started the season extremely slowly under Larry Fedora, going 0-5 versus the number. The Tar Heels have lost to their first FBS opponent in four of five seasons and nearly lost at home to San Diego State in 2014 as a 15.5-point favorite.
ATS pick: Cal
Score: North Carolina 34, Cal 31
Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Fallica: Wyoming will be a very trendy 'dog here, but I'd be careful with a team that went from 2-10 to 8-6 last year despite allowing 34.1 PPG, 452.9 YPG and getting 27 turnovers (10th in FBS). Don't get me wrong, Josh Allen can sling it, but this year will be a test for him and the Cowboys without Brian Hill in the backfield and Tanner Gentry on the receiving end of those Allen tosses. Last year Wyoming went to Nebraska and was outgained 550-320, committing five turnovers in the process. Despite some questions in the secondary, I completely trust Iowa's front seven here to dominate the line of scrimmage, as well as on the other side of the football with the offensive line establishing a running game to power the Hawkeyes to a convincing win.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 42, Wyoming 24
Ball State Cardinals (+7) at Illinois Fighting Illini
Fallica: In 2016, Ball State started 3-1 before dropping seven of the final eight games to finish 4-8 (four of those seven losses were by seven points or fewer). Included in the 3-1 start was a 10-point loss at Indiana as a 17-point 'dog. Covering versus Big Ten teams is nothing new for the Cardinals, who have covered seven of the eight meetings agaubst the Big Ten with three outright wins. QB Riley Neal returns for Ball State, along with 1,300-yard back James Gilbert and four offensive line starters.
Illinois was among the worst Power 5 teams in the country last year and probably will reside in that group again this year. I just can't imagine walking to a window asking to lay points here.
ATS pick: Ball State
Score: Illinois 31, Ball State 27
Vanderbilt Commodores (-3) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Fallica: This is one of the bigger differences in Week 1 between the Vegas spread and FPI, which projects a 10-point Commodore win. Each of the last two years -- when Middle Tennessee had better teams, and Vandy likely wasn't as good -- the Commodores won and covered as a 2.5-point underdog and 3.5-point favorite, respectively. If Vanderbilt has any bowl aspirations, this is a must-win game. And I think the Commodores will get it.
The Blue Raiders defense was really poor last year, as it gave up 36 points and 449 yards per game (including 47 points in a loss to Vandy). People know the QB-WR combo of Brett Stockstill and Richie James, but expect a very good defensive mind in Derek Mason to have a plan to slow the duo down. Sixteen starters are back for the Commodores, which won at Georgia, nearly won at Auburn and blew out Tennessee and Ole Miss late last year. Look for RB Ralph Webb to have a big game here.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Vanderbilt 34, Middle Tennessee 24
Western Michigan Broncos (+27) at USC Trojans (over/under: 57.5)
Here's the way I expect this game to go:
Coughlin: Heisman favorite QB Sam Darnold slings it everywhere early, mixes in some handoffs to his 1,000 yard rusher, Ronald Jones, and the Trojans get off to a fast start and lead by a couple of scores. Then, the Broncos get their feet underneath them, with star returning running backs Jarvion Franklin (1,373 yards in '16) and Jamauri Bogan (941 yards in '16) helping them get back within 10-13 points. At that point, USC will put the foot back on the gas -- before leaving the back door open to end the game.
Western Michigan is still a good team and is my pick to win the MAC, but just doesn't have the stallions to hang with the Men of Troy. USC coach Clay Helton will want to get this season started as differently from last year as possible (the blowout loss to Alabama), and that means holding nothing back from the playbook and continuing a trend that saw the Trojans score 40-plus points in four of their last six 2016 games. Fireworks are expected, and the scoreboard will be lit up.
Pick: USC 45, Western Michigan 28 (over 57.5)
Maryland Terrapins (+18) at Texas Longhorns (O/U: 56)
Coughlin: First off, it's supposed to be 92 degrees in Austin at kickoff for this game. I just point that out because my senior year at Stanford (1999), we opened the season in Austin and it felt like it was 120 degrees. I've never felt anything like that "Texas Hot," and I'll let you look up the final score to assess the impact on our team.
Beyond the heat, I also think about the splash Tom Herman will want to make in his first game as head coach of the Longhorns in front of that home crowd. In his first two season-openers as a head coach (2015 and 2016 at Houston), Herman's team scored 52 and 33 point in wins over Tennessee Tech and Oklahoma, respectively
Maryland comes into this game fresh off a 2016 season in which the Terps rushed for over 2,500 yards for just the seventh time in program history. My expectation is that Maryland offensive coordinator Walt Bell will find a way to score some points in what should be a tough environment. I see a lot of kickoffs and fight songs being played in this one. I'll take the over.
Pick: Texas 48, Maryland 24 (over 56)
Thursday/Friday games
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-18)
Fallica: Oklahoma State has struggled in its first game in the role of a favorite versus FBS opponents in recent years. Last year, of course the Cowboys lost the controversial game against Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite. But in 2015, OSU plodded to a 24-13 win at CMU as a 21-point favorite. In 2013, they did cover a 12.5-point number in a 21-3 win at Mississippi State, but in 2012 the Sooners lost to Arizona 59-38 as a 10.5-point favorite. Expect a typical Big 12 high-scoring affair as Philip Montgomery's offenses will always score points. I look to 2015 when Tulsa went to Norman off a 2-10 season as a 30-point 'dog and lost by 14 to a team that went to the CFP.
Based on last year's statistics this is not a four-TD game -- Oklahoma State was 18th in offensive EPA, while Tulsa was 20th. And you'll probably be surprised to hear Tulsa had by the better defense -- 41st in defensive EPA, while Oklahoma State was 60th. One of the trendiest picks of the season, Oklahoma State will win, but you're laying a big number here based on the public love for this team, so I think there is value with the 'dog. The Pokes have failed to cover in four of the last five games they were a double-digit favorite, getting a cover last year in a 24-point with over Kansas as a 22.5-point favorite on a TD run with 5:00 remaining.
ATS pick: Tulsa
Score: Oklahoma State 49, Tulsa 35
Memphis Tigers (-26) vs UL Monroe Warhawks
Fallica: The Tigers return nine starters -- including all the skill guys -- from an offense that averaged 39 PPG last season. The defense was the weak point, but that shouldn't be too big a concern against one of the worst teams in the country from a year ago (100th in offensive EPA, 123rd in defensive EPA). This could be as bad as Mike Norvell, Riley Ferguson and Co. want it in their home opener prior to two key games at UCF and vs UCLA. The fact the game is Thursday should help Memphis be fully locked in here, as the Tigers have the long week prior to the trip to Orlando. I think the Tigers are a dangerous team this year in the AAC.
ATS pick: Memphis
Score: Memphis 49, UL Monroe 10
Navy Midshipmen (-9.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls
Steele: The only prior meeting between these two teams was in 2012 and Navy won, 24-17. Last year, Navy ended with three straight losses, which cost them the AAC title and possible Cotton Bowl bid. It's Lane Kiffin's debut at FAU and they've had all month to get ready for the option. Navy's offense is at its best late in the year. In the last five years they've averaged 27.7 points per game the first five games versus FBS foes, and 36.8 points per game after that. They only average 20.7 points per game on the road in the first five games in that same span.
FAU is No. 1 on my experience chart and has a brand new offense with Kendall Briles as the offensive coordinator, while Navy is No. 102 on my experience chart. FAU has also added a handful of Power 5 transfers since my magazine went to press, making them even stronger.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Navy 34, Florida Atlantic 31
Boston College Eagles (-3) at Northern Illinois Huskies (over/under: 52)
Coughlin: This Friday night matchup makes the column for a couple reasons. First, B.C.'s Steve Addazio seems to be on the hot seat, and the Eagles' schedule has them playing consecutive conference games against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson after this one -- this team needs to open the season with a win really bad.
We all know the style of the Eagles, who are going to run the ball and play defense. That defense returns seven starters from a unit that amassed 47 sacks -- fourth in FBS last season. I think the run game and the defense travels well to what should be a mediocre home-field advantage at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois. I'll lay the points.
ATS pick: BC
Score: Boston College 23, Northern Illinois 13