<
>

Ultimate 2017 college football betting guide

Jake Browning and the Washington Huskies are a good value bet to win the national championship. Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire

With the 2017 college football season rolling into action, now is the time to lock down those value bets. Looking beyond Alabama and the heap of favorites to win it all, two of ESPN Chalk's college football betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help you find value.

Below is our 2017 college football betting guide, covering the best values among teams to win the College Football Playoff, season win totals, conference titles and Heisman Trophy contenders. If you're looking to wager on college football this season, this is the primer you need to read.

For an individual look at how to bet on each of the top 25 teams this season, check out our team-by-team previews.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.

Previews for Top 25 teams | Ultimate betting guide | Week 1 best bets


Best title bets

Steele

While none of the teams I list below are in my projected four for the College Football Playoff, there is great value on these teams. A small wager on one of them could return a significant amount.

Washington Huskies (20-1)

This number appears high for a team that made the playoff last season and is a favorite to get back to the conference title game. Washington was my No. 1 surprise team last season, and the Huskies sure enough made the playoff. This season, they have 14 returning starters, including quarterback Jake Browning, and their No. 14 ranking on my "Experience Chart" is the highest of any Pac-12 team. They do have to travel to Stanford, and if they win the North Division, the Huskies will likely have to face Southern California, who beat them 26-13 in Seattle last season. Still, this team represents solid value and could be favored in all 12 games.

Clemson Tigers (35-1)

The defending national champions can certainly be considered a value pick at this price. Clemson's defense had just three and four returning starters in the past two seasons, respectively, but now it has seven, including my No. 1-rated defensive line in the country. The Tigers do lose Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Mike Williams, but let's not ignore the plethora of talent returning. Clemson gets both Florida State and Auburn at home, and current game lines in Vegas have the defending champs favored in every matchup.

Florida Gators (60-1)

The Gators are my No. 1 surprise team this year and are an outstanding value at 60-1. The past two seasons, Florida has lost its starting quarterback in the first half of the season and still made it to the SEC title game each time. This season, the Gators have three capable quarterbacks heading into the year in Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire, combined with the best skill personnel they've fielded in several years. They have their usual top-notch defense, and I rate their special teams No. 3 in the country. They have just three true road games: Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri. They get an inexperienced Michigan in the opener, and Florida's other neutral-site game is versus Georgia, who has lost to the Gators for three straight seasons.


Harris

It's tough for us to find any value in the heavily juiced championship futures market, especially this late in the offseason. Among the favorites, we'd have taken the Ohio State Buckeyes at the opening price of 8-1, but now that they are down to 3-1, I might give a slight nod to the Alabama Crimson Tide at 5-2. Both of these programs' defenses are reliably excellent even in seasons following a mass talent exodus, and both look to have championship-caliber offenses this year. Bama is thoroughly loaded at every offensive position group save tight end, while Ohio State's addition of versatile genius Kevin Wilson cements the Buckeyes as the top spot in our coaching staff rankings.

Top dark horse prospects include the Michigan Wolverines at 15-1 and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 25-1.


Best season win total bets

Steele

Miami Hurricanes (Over 9 wins)

I've correctly picked the Hurricanes each of the past two seasons, and they look to be underrated once again. If Brad Kaaya had returned at quarterback, they would be a top-10 team. I like teams with an excellent defensive front seven, and the Hurricanes have that. Last season, they started three true freshmen at linebacker and now have one of the top linebacker units in the country. I rate their defensive line No. 4 in the nation with talent like Chad Thomas. When I factor in their overall roster and schedule, I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 of their 12 games. With that in mind, I will choose the over again and call for Miami to make its first-ever ACC title game.

Marshall Thundering Herd (Over 6 wins at South Point)

Marshall won 11 games per season from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Herd took a shocking dip down to just three wins, and that's why we have this exceptional value for a team that has now averaged nine wins per season over the past four years. Marshall has 13 returning starters and a veteran quarterback, and it brings in some Power 5 transfers on defense who will make it one of Conference USA's best defensive units.

Florida Gators (Over 9.5 wins)

Florida is my No. 1 surprise team this year as a non-top-10 team that I think will contend for a College Football Playoff spot. Florida has made the SEC title game in each of the past two seasons, and it will have its best offense in over five seasons. I think Florida will finish with 10 or 11 wins during the regular season, so this is a solid play on the over.


Harris

Michigan Wolverines (Over 9 wins)

The popular 2017 narrative focuses on Michigan's modest tally of returning starters, but the Wolverines actually bring back more lettermen than any Big Ten team besides Indiana. This bunch is experienced enough and has top-tier talent being developed by an elite staff. They are a top-five power in our book and a legit national contender every year for the next few years. The back-to-back 10-3 records might be Jim Harbaugh's worst marks for a while, and we're not counting on the oddsmakers offering up a single-digit season total again anytime soon.

Wisconsin Badgers (Under 10.5 wins)

Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this offseason centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. We'll channel Lee Corso and say "Not so fast" to that. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style playcallers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison, and while he's lost just three games in each of his first two seasons at his alma mater, it's important to remember that it's still just two years -- with players that another staff recruited. Two years ago, we wrote that Chryst would fail to replicate the accomplishments of the Bret Bielema era and would eventually disappoint, but that the obvious decline wouldn't really begin until he lost rising star Dave Aranda to a bigger job. That happened after just one year, and now Chryst has lost Justin Wilcox as well. The result is a third defensive boss in three years, and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never.

Last year, the team was fueled by the pundits' (including this one) suggestions that the schedule was too tough for a big year. Mission accomplished, 2016 doubters proved wrong, but it's unclear where the needed chips on shoulders will come from this year. Throw in some really damaging injuries to key players in camp, and this bunch looks even less poised to take the next step up and join the elite. The list price of -160 is certainly not a small number to be taken lightly...but neither is 11 wins.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Over 8 wins)

Declan Sullivan. Lizzy Seeberg. NCAA punishment for widespread academic cheating. Purplefacegate. The coaches' sideline shoving match. The #FireVanGorder tweet. Manti Teo's fake girlfriend.

Brian Kelly's tenure at Notre Dame has been marred by tragedy, controversy and outright scandal. Whether you hold Kelly and/or the university wholly responsible for all the off the field issues, totally absolve them or anything in between, one thing is evident: All of the black eyes the program has taken in Kelly's tenure have set the on-field product back. Notre Dame has the resources, talent and coaching required to be a perennial contender for national honors, and the 2017 campaign looks like an obvious bounce-back year.

Kelly did lose his fifth coordinator to an FBS head coaching job, but it's otherwise finally been an incident-free offseason in South Bend, and the result is more players making bigger developmental leaps. The team chemistry is its best in years, and the head coach is by self-admission more attentive to the necessary details than he was last year.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (Over 9 wins)

The Cowboys have cracked double digits in the win column in five of the past seven seasons, and this senior-laden roster shapes up as the best team yet in Mike Gundy's tenure. The passing game is unstoppable with Gundy's first three-year signal-caller Mason Rudolph throwing to All-American James Washington, and the ground game is rejuvenated behind sophomore Justice Hill. For five years, the defense has benefited from a steady increase in the resources and attention allocated to that side of the ball, and the program has become an industry leader in using math and science to find an edge. Gundy leads a mature organization in Year 13, and with all the junior and senior talent on hand, 2017 looks like a payoff season for the steady advances across the board.


Conference title bets

Steele

San Diego State Aztecs (8-5)

When I look at the Mountain West Conference's West Division, my only question for the Aztecs is will they clinch the division by the sixth or seventh game of conference play? The gap between San Diego State and everyone else is huge. I easily rate the Aztecs as No. 1 in the conference, and they are not even the favorite to take the Mountain West title (Boise State).

Kansas State Wildcats (7-1)

I think five teams have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year. Bill Snyder usually relies on a large amount of JUCOs, and his two-deep is dominated by upperclassmen. Last year, 135 starts were by underclassmen, the most ever under Snyder (26 years at the helm). The Wildcats' 14 returning starters are the most since 2012 when they got as high as No. 2 before their quarterback was injured. Take the value at 7-1.

Stanford Cardinal (9-2)

Stanford was the favorite to win the Pac-12 last year, but then started the season just 4-3. The Cardinal won their last six games, and they go from No. 122 on my experience chart to No. 49. Stanford hosts Washington on a Friday, and a win in that game would likely put it in the Pac-12 title game. It is also noteworthy that the Cardinal beat Southern California last season 27-10. Stanford has my No. 8 rated defense.

NC State Wolfpack (20-1)

I love the Wolfpack's defensive line, and they have a veteran quarterback. They missed a last-second field goal that would have provided an upset over Clemson last season, and they also only lost to Florida State by four points. There is great value at 20-1.


Harris

The chalk looks unfavorably priced, and the longshots look like no-hopers, so the most palatable late pickings in this market are found in the middle of the conference championship betting orders.

The Wyoming Cowboys and Michigan Wolverines are both 7-1. Each team has a junior quarterback with a year of starting experience, and each boasted a 200-plus yard-per-game rushing attack last year. Both are led by elite, proven coaches who are now a few years into their programs (third for Jim Harbaugh and fourth for Craig Bohl).

The Central Florida Knights are just 6-1 in the American, and second-year boss Scott Frost is a rising star rather than a proven blue-chipper. But the AAC has no deeply entrenched powers, and UCF's overall talent is among the best in the league. We love Frost and continue to be very bullish on this outfit's long-term prospects.


Best Heisman bets

Steele

My pick to win the Heisman is Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold, but preseason favorites rarely win, and I would not wager on anyone who does not have greater than 10-1 odds at this point in the season.

Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State Seminoles (15-1)

Francois was hit a lot throughout last season, but he stayed in games and showed his durability. This season, Florida State will have some big marquee games (Alabama, Clemson, Louisville) for him to showcase his skills. Running back Dalvin Cook got all the media attention on the Florida State offense in 2016, and that focus will be Francois' this year with Cook off to the NFL. If the Seminoles emerge from their tough schedule unscathed, Francois will have much to do with it and will put himself at the top of the Heisman list. He's my best value bet right now.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (15-1)

Browning has a great shot at improving on last year's statistics and might be worth a look. While he faltered a bit down the stretch in the big games, he was struggling with a shoulder injury. With another year of experience under his belt, I don't think there will be a drop off this season. Washington remains a contender in the Pac-12. It avoids Southern California and will be favored in every game except a road trip to Stanford, thus making Browning a contender for the Heisman if he performs.


Harris

The past eight Heisman winners have all been dual-threat quarterbacks or workhorse running backs. Ohio State's Mike Weber would look good at 60-1 representing the latter group if not for the presence of emerging superstar J.K. Dobbins in the same backfield. So give us 80-1 and Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush, an athletic dual-threat with speed, arm strength, top-shelf offensive coaching and plenty of outstanding players around him in the starting 11.