LAS VEGAS -- The Arizona Cardinals routed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40-7 on Sunday and have leaped to the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
Last week, the Cardinals sat behind co-leaders Pittsburgh and Green Bay. The Packers lost 17-14 at Minnesota on Sunday night as 2-point favorites. The Steelers beat the Bengals 24-16 as 3-point home favorites and earned a half-point increase from our panel, but the Cardinals' performance was so thoroughly dominating that they were upgraded by 1.5 points and enough to claim No. 1.
The New England Patriots are the hardest team to power rate. They're still the Super Bowl favorite at 5-1 and keep winning with backup quarterbacks while waiting for Tom Brady's suspension to end, but now they're faced with replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with rookie Jacoby Brissett. Our panel ended up downgrading the Patriots by an average of 2.5 points.
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
Movin' on up
The Cardinals' 1.5-point increase is matched by the Chargers and the Eagles. The Chargers blew out the Jaguars 38-14 on Sunday as 3-point home favorites while the Eagles beat the Bears 29-14 on Monday Night Football as 3-point road underdogs. The Jets, Vikings, Texans, Falcons, Titans and Rams also earned 1-point upgrades.
Dropping down
The biggest decrease after the Patriots' 2.5-point drop was the Bears, as they were downgraded 2 full points after their 29-14 loss on Monday night as 3-point home faves. Jay Cutler was injured in the loss, but they probably wouldn't be dropped too much more with Brian Hoyer as the backup (some would call it an upgrade). The Buccaneers and Jaguars both dropped 1.5 points after their blowout losses.
Week 2 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 5-1 ATS so far this season. After going 3-0 ATS in Week 1, they went 2-1 ATS in Week 2 as the Patriots covered as 6.5-point home favorites and the Eagles won outright as 3-point underdogs on Monday night, while the loss was the 49ers +13.5 in a back-and-forth fourth quarter.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 2 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Vegas consensus line: Houston -2.5
Vegas Ranks: New England -0.5 (23-22.5)
Even after downgrading the Patriots for the expectation that Jacoby Brissett is going to start Thursday night's game, our panel still has the Patriots as half a point better than the Texans. With home-field advantage, we have New England favored by a field goal, yet oddsmakers have flipped the script and made Houston -2.5.
The play: Patriots +2.5.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Vegas consensus line: Arizona -4.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -9 (27.5-18.5)
The Cardinals are our No. 1 team and rated 9 points better than the Bills. Even with Buffalo's home-field advantage, it looks like this line shouldn't be lower than a full touchdown. The 4.5-point spread looks a little cheap.
The play: Cardinals -4.5.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Vegas consensus line: Carolina -7
Vegas Ranks: Carolina -1 (25-24)
Our panel's only loss so far was going against the Panthers last week, but the numbers say to do it again. We have the Panthers as just 1 point better than the Vikings on a neutral field and with home-field advantage, we would stop the line at Carolina -3, maybe crossing the key number but nowhere near a full touchdown.
The play: Vikings +7.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Vegas consensus line: New Orleans -3
Vegas Ranks: Atlanta -2 (20-18)
Our panel has the Falcons rated as 2 points better than the Saints. Applying New Orleans' home-field advantage (which ain't what it used to be) should only put this game around pick 'em. The Falcons look like value getting a full field goal.
The play: Falcons +3.