LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game, with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times, it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, which causes bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and cry "bad beat!" Then, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
Let's run down Sunday's action:
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
New York Giants (-4) in 16-13 home win over New Orleans
The Giants never trailed and were mostly in control of this game. They led 7-0 and 10-3 before the Saints tied the game in the fourth quarter and the two teams exchanged field goals to make it 13-13. But what qualifies this as a bad bet for New York backers is that Eli Manning hit Victor Cruz with a 34-yard pass down to the Saints' 2-yard line with 1:32 to play. Instead of punching it in for the touchdown and covering the spread, the Giants took three knees, and Josh Brown kicked the game-winning 23-yard FG as time expired. This game had the highest over/under of the early games, at 54.5, but had the least points scored with 29, so I guess what I learned the most is that there are no automatic over teams.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
New England (-5.5) in 31-24 home win over Miami
Jimmy Garoppolo threw three first-half touchdown passes, and the Patriots led 24-0 before he injured his right shoulder and left the game. The Dolphins nearly rallied all the way back, but Jacoby Brissett (rookie from North Carolina State) did enough, and the Pats held on for the win and cover. Ryan Tannehill's stats (32-for-45 for 389 yards) were padded by New England's playing prevent defense and protecting its lead with a third-string QB in the game. When the Patriots were more aggressive, Tannehill was under constant pressure, and the Dolphins' offense looked worse than it did last week (so it wasn't just Seattle's defense holding them down last week).
Houston (-1) in 19-12 home win over Kansas City
The Texans went ahead 7-0 in the first quarter, as a J.J. Watt fumble recovery led to a Brock Osweiler-to-DeAndre Hopkins touchdown pass that was the only touchdown of the game. The Texans never pulled away, as 13-3 was the biggest lead, but their defense completely dominated. The under 42.5 was also a pretty easy winner, and the Texans (2-0 SU, ATS and with the under) should be expected to keep playing this way.
Pittsburgh (-3) in 24-16 home win over Cincinnati
This wasn't an "easy" cover, but the Steelers were the right side throughout, though a late touchdown could have brought the Bengals back inside the number. It was hard to draw a lot of conclusions from the game played in a downpour -- except that these are two of the top teams in the league that enjoy beating up on each other, though the Bengals have a hard time winning big games -- but even though Antonio Brown didn't have a big game, the Steelers had nine players catch passes and will be extra dangerous in clear conditions (and when Le'Veon Bell returns).
Los Angeles (+5.5) in 9-3 home win over Seattle
The Rams never trailed, and it's impossible for a favorite to cover the spread when it doesn't score as many points as it's laying. The underdog cover was clear-cut, but the only thing to be seen was if the Rams (plus-210 on the money line) would blow the outright upset, as the Dolphins did last week. The Rams' defense obviously played well, but the Seahawks' offense is a wreck. It has scored just one touchdown and 15 points in two full games. Even though this game had the lowest over/under at 38, it was the easiest under.
Arizona (-7) in 40-7 home win over Tampa Bay
After a scoreless first quarter, the Cardinals outscored the Buccaneers 24-0 in the second quarter and coasted to an easy win and cover. Arizona's offense dominated, but it was the defense that really shined, as it shut down Tampa and forced five turnovers plus a pick-six. My takeaway, after hearing about how great the Bucs' offense had become, is that it's still a middle-of-the-road offense when facing a quality defense -- not the Atlanta unit last week.
San Diego (-3) in 38-14 home win over Jacksonville
For the second week in a row, the Chargers jumped out to a huge lead, but this week, they didn't blow it. The San Diego offense was balanced, with Philip Rivers throwing four TD passes and Melvin Gordon gaining 102 yards rushing, but I was most impressed with the Chargers' defense in shutting down the Jaguars. It opened my eyes last week in shutting down the Chiefs -- until the Chargers let them rally. Those who had under 47.5 can claim a bad beat, as the scoring crawled along with the Chargers having such a big lead, but a garbage-time touchdown by the Jaguars pushed it over, though those of us on the over aren't complaining.
Atlanta (+4) in 35-28 win at Oakland
The Falcons trailed by more than the spread (and only one time by four points, at 7-3), so they were clearly the right side. The Raiders had a chance to cover after tying the game 21-21, but the Falcons pulled away with two TDs. Oakland's tying TD came on a fourth-and-goal play that showed Jack Del Rio to be challenging Ron Rivera for the "Riverboat" moniker. The over 48 was in little doubt after a scoreless first quarter, but these two defenses continue to get shredded and make these two clear over teams.
Minnesota (+2.5) in 17-14 home win over Green Bay
The Packers grabbed a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, but after the Vikings tied it 7-7, they never trailed again as they controlled the defensive battle (the under 43 was never in doubt). Sam Bradford hit Stefon Diggs with a 25-yard TD pass to put Minnesota up 17-7 late in the third quarter. Aaron Rodgers cut it to 17-14 with a 10-yard TD run with 12:21 to play and put a scare in Vikings backers as another TD or a tying FG and subsequent FG could have covered for the Packers, but the Vikings held on.
Minnesota defense was again the star in containing the Pack attack, but Bradford also fit in like the Vikings hoped he would when they traded for him before the season started. However, a concern moving forward might be that he relied too much on Diggs (who had 182 of Bradford's 286 passing yards) and could be double-teamed by opposing defenses, especially if Adrian Peterson misses extended playing time.
50/50 ATS Results
Baltimore (-4.5) in 25-20 win over Cleveland
This could have fit in either of the above categories. The Browns were clearly the right side the whole game, as they jumped to a 20-0 lead, and it was a bad beat for those who had Cleveland plus-4.5 but a "had-it-all-the-way" winner for getting them at plus-5.5 to plus-7 at various times earlier in the week. The game actually turned on the Browns' third PAT, as the Ravens blocked it and returned it for a defensive two-point conversion. The Ravens then scored 25 unanswered points. A taunting penalty on Browns receiver Terrelle Pryor hindered the Browns' chances of re-rallying for the outright upset (and upsetting those that had them at around plus-200 on the money line). My biggest takeaway is that Josh McCown should have been the Browns' QB all along, plus the Ravens' defense isn't as stout as it looked in the opener against Buffalo.
Tennessee (+6) in 16-15 win at Detroit
Detroit backers might argue this was a bad beat, as the Lions led 15-3 entering the fourth quarter, but they never put the Titans away. In fact, the Titans' first touchdown cut the lead to 15-10, and they were already inside the point spread, even if they didn't get the winning touchdown. As I've written a couple times now, the Detroit pass offense is in good hands, with Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin, but I also came away impressed with the Titans' bend-but-don't-break defense that should help them cover as underdogs moving forward. The under 48 was an easy winner.
Carolina (-12.5) in 46-27 win over San Francisco
This was a wild one, especially as far as the spread was concerned. The 49ers looked like the right side early and led 10-7, but then the Panthers got back on pace for a cover with a 17-10 halftime lead and extended that to 31-10 after the third quarter. Then the craziness began, as the 49ers kicked a FG and then Ted Ginn Jr. misplayed the ensuing kickoff and set the 49ers up for a TD that cut the lead to 31-20 and back inside the number. After a Carolina field goal, San Fran got within a touchdown at 34-27 on Blaine Gabbert's 75-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vance McDonald, but another Carolina FG and a Cam Newton-to-Devin Funchess TD pass put the Panthers back over the spread at 43-27. I took away from this that the Carolina defense isn't as good as it was the past season. The over 45 was hardly in doubt, and the Panthers ended up going over the number themselves.
Dallas (+3) in 27-23 win at Washington
An argument could be made that the Cowboys were the right side all along, as they trailed by more than the spread (17-13) for only a short time in the third quarter, but it was mostly back and forth and very easily could have ended in a push when the Redskins took a 23-20 lead, though the key play was Barry Church's interception of Kirk Cousins in the end zone to keep Washington from taking a 10-point lead. Alfred Morris' 4-yard TD run with 4:46 left decided it in the Cowboys' favor and also put the game over the total of 47.
Denver (-6) in 34-20 home win over Indianapolis
The Broncos were mostly in control of this game and looked like they would cover after Aqib Talib's 46-yard interception return put them up 23-13 early in the fourth quarter. However, the Colts got back within the spread at 23-20 on an Andrew Luck-to-Frank Gore touchdown pass with 4:02 to play, then Brandon McManus added a FG to put the game right on the six-point spread at 26-20. Then Von Miller stripped Luck, and Shane Rey returned the fumble 15 yards for the clinching TD (and the spread clinched with the two-point conversion to put the Broncos up by 14). We saw again that Luck is always capable of a comeback and saw that while Trevor Siemian continues to do his job nicely, the Broncos are still powered by the defense.