We are still three months away from college football's rivalry weekend, but with Vegas releasing lines on more than 100 of the best games of the year, bettors can get a jump start on the best rivalry games and other top matchups for the 2016 season. These lines will undoubtedly change between now and when the games are played, but for teams that are over- or underrated in the preseason, there is value in getting bets in now.
With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we identified five games which look like good bets right now. Although FPI was not designed to beat Vegas, it has won 59 percent of games in which its predicted point differential differed from Vegas' closing line by at least five points over the last four years.
Of the 21 games (out of 110) in which the line provided by South Point differs by at least five points from FPI, we've chosen the five most compelling matchups.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys (-4) at Kansas State Wildcats
Nov. 5
Of the 110 games listed by South Point, this one registered as the biggest difference between Vegas and FPI. Admittedly, FPI may be a little low on Kansas State after an injury-riddled season in 2015, but there are reasons to believe Oklahoma State will be more efficient than last year's 10-win squad.
The Cowboys return a Big 12-high 17 starters, including QB Mason Rudolph, to a team that ranked 26th in overall efficiency. With Rudolph, a deep group of receivers and five returning starters on the offensive line, the Cowboys should have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Wildcats have kept it close in recent meetings, but they may be overmatched against Oklahoma State's deep and experienced squad.
FPI's predicted point differential: Oklahoma State by 13.8
Louisville Cardinals (+2) at Houston Cougars
Nov. 17
Last season, Houston defeated Louisville 34-31 on the road en route to a historic 13-win season. Why will this year's outcome be different with the game in Houston? To start, Louisville entered last year's contest as one of the least experienced teams in the country. This year, Louisville returns 17 starters (six more than Houston), including quarterback Lamar Jackson, who faced the Cougars in his second career start and struggled (three turnovers, 20.5 Total QBR) mightily as a true freshman.
Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. should be one of the top all-around players in the nation, but there are signs that the Cougars may regress in 2016: They relied heavily on turnovers (forced an FBS-high 103 points off turnovers) and timely special teams plays against Louisville and others. Those stats tend to regress year-over-year, and after losing a number of key contributors on defense, FPI actually favors Louisville by nearly a touchdown in Houston entering Week 1.
FPI: Louisville by 6.7
California Golden Bears (+5.5) at San Diego State Aztecs
Sept. 10
Expectations are high for San Diego State after winning its final 10 games of last season, including a dominant 42-7 victory over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. Of those final 10 wins, however, none came against a team ranked in the top half of ESPN's FPI. Cal has plenty of holes to fill -- most notably the loss of No. 1 overall pick QB Jared Goff -- but with a new offensive coordinator and former Texas Tech QB Davis Webb winning the starting job, the Bears should be stronger than San Diego State on that side of the ball. Defensively, the Aztecs have the edge, but with Cal coming off a bye (worth about one point), FPI actually favors the Bears rather than giving San Diego State a 5.5-point advantage.
FPI: California by 1.8
UCLA Bruins (-1.5) at BYU Cougars
Sept. 17
Last season UCLA needed a fourth-quarter rally to defeat BYU 24-23 at home, but a lot has changed for these programs since that game. BYU has a new head coach, UCLA has a new offensive coordinator and both teams will look different at quarterback from Week 3 of last season. Yes, Josh Rosen is back, but it's unlikely he will play as poorly (5.8 Total QBR) as he did against the Cougars as a true freshman. UCLA's defense should also be much improved with nine returning starters and defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes returning from injury. UCLA has excelled under Jim Mora in early-season games (15-1 straight up in August and September), and FPI expects more success this year in Provo.
FPI: UCLA by 7.8
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+14) at Ohio State Buckeyes
Nov. 5
Nebraska lost seven games last season, but none by more than 10 points. The Cornhuskers showed they can keep it close against top-tier competition, but they simply couldn't put games away. With their leading passer, rusher, receiver and tackler all returning this season, even average luck would go a long way towards a big improvement in the win column. On the other side, Ohio State enters this season with major holes (six returning starters), and despite most expecting Urban Meyer to seamlessly transition to his next generation of top recruits, there are inevitably going to be growing pains. Nebraska may not beat Ohio State on the road, but they have the talent to keep it within two touchdowns.
FPI: Ohio State by 8.0
Bonus game
Auburn Tigers (+15.5) at Alabama Crimson Tide
Nov. 26
After leading the article by talking about rivalry weekend, it's only fitting to break down a real rivalry. Although this game doesn't fall under the 5-point FPI rule (it's at 4.8) there's reason to believe that Auburn can keep it within two touchdowns. Alabama struggled as a home favorite last season (2-5 ATS) and could again struggle to score enough points to cover the spread with a new starting quarterback and running back. Admittedly, Auburn enters this season with a number of questions, but you have to believe Gus Malzahn has at least figured out how to improve an uncharacteristically poor offense. In this Iron Bowl, it's worth taking the points right now.
FPI: Alabama by 10.7