In advance of the biggest gambling event of the year, Chalk will have multiple pieces dedicated to helping bettors place smarter wagers on Super Bowl 50. To begin the week, Chalk NFL handicapper Dave Tuley breaks down the Carolina Panthers' 2015 season, including a game-by-game look.
Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl 50 future-book odds: 60-1 at start of regular season
On Jan. 9, 2015, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl 50 futures and Carolina opened at 30-1. That price did not budge until Aug. 10, when it drifted up to 40-1. On Aug. 19, second-year star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was injured during practice and it was announced that he was out for the year with a torn ACL. The Westgate raised the Panthers' odds to 50-1 and took so few bets over the next three weeks that they were raised to 60-1 heading into the regular season.
Similarly, their odds to win the NFC were raised to 30-1, with Chicago (40-1), San Francisco (50-1), Washington (50-1) and Tampa Bay (50-1) being the only teams with a worse chance to win the conference.
Over/under season win totals: 8.5 (under -170)
When the Westgate posted its over/under season win totals back on May 4, the Panthers, coming off a 7-8-1 season, were set at 8.5 (with the under at -135). They sat there most of the spring and summer, though there was some support on the over in early August and the line sat at 8.5 with -110 on both sides. After Benjamin's injury on Aug. 19, the win total stayed the same at 8.5 but the vig went to -160. Again, not many people were backing the Panthers and the under went to 8.5 (under -170) by the start of the season. Carolina exceeded all expectations when the Panthers surpassed their total in Week 10, improving to 9-0 with a 27-10 win over Tennessee.
Carolina's 2015 regular season
Record: 15-1 (No. 1 in NFL)
ATS record: 11-5 (No. 3 in NFL), net profit of 5.5 units
Over/unders: 10-5-1 (No. 1 in NFL with overs), profit of 4.5 units
Carolina was very good to its backers during the regular season. By Thanksgiving, the Panthers were still undefeated at 11-0 but had a just-as-impressive 9-2 ATS record; their only non-covers were a 27-22 victory over New Orleans in Week 3 as 9.5-point favorites and a 29-26 win over Indianapolis in Week 8 as 5.5-point favorites. They then had their one bad stretch of the season as they failed to cover three of four games in Weeks 13-16, including having their perfect season spoiled in a 20-13 loss in Atlanta in Week 16. They were also good to over bettors with a league-best 10-5-1 over record.
Carolina's 2015 postseason
Record: 2-0 (NFC champions)
ATS record: 2-0 ATS, 2 units of profit
Over/unders: 2-0, 2 units of profit
The Panthers have really turned things up a notch in the postseason, grabbing big first-half leads (31-0 over Seattle and 17-0 over Arizona). They allowed the Seahawks to rally but still won and covered 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites in the divisional playoffs, and then routed the Cardinals 49-15 to easily cover as three-point home favorites in the conference championship game. Both games flew over the totals.
Betting on Carolina every game
Regular season: 11-5 ATS for net profit of 5.5 units
Over in regular season: 10-5-1, profit of 4.5 units
Postseason: 2-0 ATS, 2 more units of profit
Over in postseason: 2-0 for 2 more units of profit
If you were one of the few people to be high on the Panthers heading into the season and decided to bet them every game, you would have gone 11-5 ATS for a profit of 5.5 units (assuming you were laying the standard -110 vig) in the regular season and added 2 more units in the playoffs.
Note: A unit is a bettor's normal wager, so if you're a $100 bettor, you would be up $750 if you had bet the Panthers against the spread in every game so far. If you were even more prescient and saw them as an over team, you would have had a profit of 4.5 units during the season and 2 more units in the playoffs or an overall profit of 6.5 units.
Biggest win for bettors: Carolina -1 at Dallas in Week 12
As stated above, the Panthers had many big wins for bettors, but the Thanksgiving game topped them all. Even though the Panthers were 10-0 and coming off a 44-16 rout of the Redskins, the oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 2.5-point home favorite over Carolina, as the Cowboys had just gotten Tony Romo back in the starting lineup and beat the Dolphins 24-14 in his return. Bettors were having none of that, and bet Carolina to favoritism; the Panthers easily cashed, rolling to a 33-14 win.
Worst loss for bettors: Carolina -7 at Atlanta in Week 16 (and also in teasers)
Plenty of bettors were jumping on the bandwagon and betting the Panthers blindly by Week 16 as they were 14-0 SU and favored by 7 points over an Atlanta team that they had just beaten 38-0 two weeks prior. It looked too easy, especially for teaser bettors who just needed the Panthers to win outright. However, the books cleaned up as the Falcons pulled the 20-13 outright upset.
Panthers as favorites
SU record: 16-1
ATS record: 12-5
Over/under (as faves): 11-5-1
Carolina repeatedly came through as a favorite all season long. The only game in which the Panthers closed as underdogs was a Week 9 37-29 win over the Packers as 2.5-point home 'dogs.
Home record: 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 ATS (including playoffs)
Away record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS
Over/under (in away games): 5-3
Most people will think this is irrelevant since the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, but a lot of handicappers (this is also true during March Madness) like to look at team's road record to see how a team fares away from its home surroundings (since both teams do that at a neutral site). The Panthers were a very respectable 5-3 ATS on the road; however, they failed to cover in their last three road games after starting 5-0 ATS. They only beat the Saints 41-38 as six-point road favorites in Week 13, t the Giants 38-35 as five-point road favorites in Week 15 and, of course, the 20-13 loss as seven-point favorites in Atlanta in Week 16.