In advance of the biggest gambling event of the year, Chalk will have multiple pieces dedicated to helping bettors place smarter wagers on Super Bowl 50. Today, Chalk NFL handicapper Dave Tuley breaks down the Denver Broncos' 2015 season, including a game-by-game look.
Denver Broncos
Super Bowl 50 future-book odds: 9-1 at start of regular season
On Jan. 9, 2015, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl 50 futures, and Denver opened as the fourth choice at 8-1 (behind Seattle, New England and Green Bay). But that was before Peyton Manning looked terrible in a divisional playoff loss to Indianapolis. The Broncos were raised to 14-1 and bounced back and forth between 14-1 and 12-1 through the winter and spring. By the preseason, with Manning back in form, the Broncos were lowered to 8-1 and opened the season at 9-1. In the AFC futures, they were the third choice at 7-2 behind only New England and Indianapolis (both at 3-1).
Over/under season win totals: 10 (over -140)
When the Westgate posted its over/under season win totals back on May 4, the Broncos were set at 10 with the over at -130. It pretty much stayed there through the spring and summer until being bet up to 10 (over -140) by the start of the season. Denver reached its total in Week 13 when it improved to 10-2 with a 45-17 rout of San Diego, but it took three more weeks to guarantee over bettors a win; Denver won its 11th game in Week 16 over Cincinnati.
Denver's 2015 regular season
Record: 12-4 (No. 1 in AFC, won tiebreaker over New England)
ATS record: 7-7-2 (No. 15 in NFL), net loss of .7 units
Over/unders: 6-8-2 (middle of the pack), net profit of 1.4 units for under
Even when Denver starting off the season by winning its first seven games, it still wasn't a great bet. The Broncos were 5-2 ATS but only covered the opener by 1.5 points against Baltimore and by half a point in Week 5 against Oakland. And then it got worse. The Broncos' first loss was 27-24 at Indianapolis in Week 9 as 3.5-point road favorites, then they lost again the following week, 29-13 to Kansas City, as four-point home favorites. The Broncos won five of seven games to close out the regular season and wrestle the No. 1 seed from New England, but they were only 2-3-2 ATS in those games. They were even more inconsistent with over/unders, as they never had back-to-back overs all season and had two straight unders only in Weeks 13-14 until their two playoff games stayed under.
Denver's 2015 postseason
Record: 2-0 (AFC champions)
ATS record: 1-0-1, profit of 1 unit
Over/unders: 0-2, net profit of 2 for under
After receiving a first-round bye, Denver hosted Pittsburgh as a seven-point home favorite in the divisional playoffs and ended up pushing against the closing line with its 23-16 victory. The Broncos were three-point home underdogs in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots but held on for a 20-18 outright upset. Both games stayed under the totals.
Betting on Denver every game
Regular season: 7-7-2 for a net loss of 0.7 units
Unders in regular season: 8-6-2 for a net profit of 1.4 units
Postseason: 1-0-1 ATS for 1 more unit of profit
Unders in postseason: 2-0 for 2 more units of profit
If you had decided to bet on Denver every game of the regular season, you would have finished 7-7-2 ATS for a net loss of 0.7 units (assuming laying the standard -110 vig). A unit is a bettor's normal wager, so if you're a $100 bettor, you would have been down $70 on the year. If you had been able to get Denver -6.5 against Pittsburgh in the divisional playoffs, you would have been back to an overall profit, though most bettors pushed in that game but came out ahead when the Broncos beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Denver was expected to be an under team with a stellar defense and more of an emphasis on the running game and less reliance on Manning, and if you bet the under in every game you would have been 8-6-2 in the regular season for a net profit of 1.4 units (again, +$140 for a $100 bettor) and then another 2 units so far in the playoffs.
Luckiest win for bettors: Denver -4.5 over Baltimore in Week 1
In the season opener, Denver closed as a 4.5-point home favorite and was losing most of the game to Baltimore. With the Broncos trailing 13-9 in the fourth quarter, CB Aqib Talib picked off Joe Flacco and returned it for a touchdown. A two-point conversion put the Broncos up only 16-13, but they added a field goal late to get the cover. This set the tone for the whole season, as the defense often came up with big plays at just the right time to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Broncos as underdogs
Record: 4-1
ATS record: 4-0-1
Over/under (as faves): 3-2
Denver was an underdog only four times during the regular season (and in the AFC title game against New England) but came through nearly every time. The Broncos were three-point road underdogs at Kansas City in Week 2 and won outright 31-24; they were 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 8 when both teams were 6-0 and won outright 29-10 against Green Bay; they were 2.5-point home underdogs to New England in Week 12 and won outright 34-20; they were seven-point road underdogs at Pittsburgh in Week 15 and lost 34-27 but pushed against the spread; and then, of course, they were three-point home underdogs to New England in the conference championship game but won outright 20-18.
Broncos' record home vs. road
Home record: 8-2-0 SU, 4-5-1 ATS (including playoffs)
Away record: 6-2 SU, 4-2-2 ATS
Over/under (in away games): 4-4
Now, most people will think this is irrelevant since the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, but a lot of handicappers (this is also true during March Madness) like to look at a team's road record to see how it fares away from its home surroundings since both teams do that at a neutral site. The Broncos actually performed better on the road during the regular season. They were 6-2 SU both home and away, but they were 4-2-2 ATS on the road while actually having a losing record at home. This looks like it would bode well for them in Santa Clara, California.