The NBA conference finals are here, and we're pretty much where most people expected with the top two seeds from each conference still alive.
The Houston Rockets are a little bit of a surprise, though, as they entered the playoffs as the co-third betting choice to win the West behind the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, but advanced through their first two series as minus-270 favorites over the Dallas Mavericks and minus-160 favorites over the Los Angeles Clippers (though a lot of people wrote them off when they trailed 3-1 in the series). But here they are against the Warriors, who are the West's No. 1 seed and advanced as minus-5,000 favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans and minus-1,400 faves over the Memphis Grizzlies.
The East was more true to form, as the top-seeded (though unsung) Atlanta Hawks were minus-1,600 over the Brooklyn Nets and minus-250 over the Washington Wizards, while the Cleveland Cavaliers were minus-1,300 over the Boston Celtics and minus-240 over the Chicago Bulls.
It's interesting -- at least to yours truly -- that while the favorites have continued to survive and advance, underdogs have gone 34-31-1 ATS so far in the playoffs, including 15-10 ATS this past round. That's what happens when we see a lot of games come down to last-second shots (which usually means the dog is covering). For the record, unders have also held a slight advantage at 35-30-1 overall after going 12-12-1 in the conference semis.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Warriors as the 4-7 (minus-175 expressed as a money line) favorites to win the NBA title, followed by the Cavaliers at 5-2, the Hawks at 8-1 and the Rockets at 12-1.
Let's take a look at each series and see where we can find some betting value.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Series price: Warriors minus-1,000/Rockets plus-650
Game 1 line: Warriors minus-10
PickCenter Game 1 intel: 52 percent picked Houston
Over/under: 219.5
While we already mentioned that the Rockets were down 3-1 in their series vs. the Clippers, the Warriors trailed the Grizzlies 2-1 before also winning the last three games of their series. So even though both teams have persevered, they've also shown they're not invincible. A lot is being made of the fact that the Warriors swept the season series 4-0 and beat the Rockets by 15.3 points per game, but the Rockets have to feel there's no obstacle they can't overcome. While the Warriors are the better overall team, I give them more around a 75 percent chance to win the series, so I believe there's value in the Rockets at plus-650 (other books have them around plus-600, which still looks like an overlay).
I wouldn't bet too big, as the Rockets could be competitive but fall short of getting enough outright wins, so there's still the chance to make money on them betting game to game. Even though they were unable to stay within single digits in any of the regular-season games, I like the Rockets getting double digits in Game 1 (and presumably around that amount for all the games at Golden State).
In addition, the Warriors have the reputation as the 3-point shooting team led by Stephen Curry, but the fact is that the Rockets rely even more on 3-pointers, as they led the league this year (followed by the Warriors). This will make most people think of betting the over before the under, but as I pointed out in the NBA Playoff Betting Guide before the postseason started: oddsmakers inflate the totals in games involving the Warriors.
So far in the playoffs, the under is 8-2 in Golden State games, including 5-0 in home games. Granted, the Rockets are 10-2 with the over, including 5-0 on the road, but I still think the under is the way to go.
ESPN Chalk picks: Houston to win series at plus-600 or better; Houston plus-10 in Game 1.
If the Rockets win outright in Game 1, I'll probably sit out Game 2, but if the Warriors win Game 1, I'll probably come back with the Rockets plus the points in Game 2. I'm not sure whether I'll be getting enough points (if any) with the Rockets at home, but that could change depending on what I see in the first two games. I'll also take the under in both of the games at Golden State and decide later what to do with the games in Houston.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Westgate series price: Cavaliers minus-215/Hawks plus-185
Westgate Game 1 lines: Hawks minus-1
PickCenter: 57 percent picked Cleveland
Over/under: 197
This is an intriguing matchup from a handicapping perspective. We have the preseason favorites in the Cavaliers with mega superstar LeBron James against the "team" of the Hawks, who had the better regular season by seven full games and went 3-1 in the season series. Yet it's the Cavs who have settled in as the minus-215 series favorite.
Cleveland has also lost Kevin Love along the way, so it's even more of a case of the star versus the team. I would like to make a case for the Hawks as the series underdog, but the price seems a little short, and I'm hoping we can do better going game by game. Besides, the Hawks failed to cover Game 1s against the Nets and Wizards, so I'm inclined to take the Cavs in Game 1 and wait to take the Hawks when getting more points in the games at Cleveland. Also, just like the Warriors, I pointed out in the NBA Playoff Betting Guide that the Cavs were 48-33-1 (59.3 percent) with the under during the regular season and said I'd be taking more unders than overs. They're 6-3-1 with the under so far in the playoffs, including 4-0-1 in road games, so I'd continue to look that way. (Note: The Hawks are 7-5 with the under, including 5-2 in home games.)
ESPN Chalk picks: Cavaliers plus-1 in Game 1, as well as under 197.
As long as it's not adjusted too much, I'll probably just look to the under in Game 2. In Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland, I'll likely take the Hawks plus the points as well as again looking to the under.
Zig-zagging through the NBA playoffs
We don't feel we can have an NBA playoff betting article without mentioning the zig-zag theory. For the uninitiated, the zig-zag theory -- also known as the "loser of the last" theory -- encourages taking the loser of the previous game plus the points in the next game. It was very popular in the 1990s, but hasn't been as successful since the turn of the century. For the record, I pointed out in the NBA Playoff Betting Guide that the zig-zag was 311-249-10 ATS (55.5 percent) from 1991 through 2000 but then only 475-444-27 ATS (51.6 percent) from 2001 through last season, though it did rebound a little last year at 40-33-1 ATS (54.8 percent). Even though it has cooled off overall, it has continued to be successful in Game 2s. This year, it went 4-4 ATS in the first round but then 3-1 ATS in the second round to stand at 7-5 ATS (58.3 percent) in Game 2s.
Overall, the zig-zag has been very streaky this postseason and is 27-26-1 ATS (50.5 percent) overall. Now, it cracks me up that just because I write about the zig-zag or tweet about it that people assume I'm endorsing it, even though I repeatedly write that I don't bet it blindly. I continue to write about it because a lot of people still play the zig-zag, but more importantly, the oddsmakers anticipate that people are going to play it and factor it into the lines. As handicappers, it's our job to then decide if there's been an overadjustment in the line.
For instance, in the conference finals, there's a very good chance that if the Warriors blow out the Rockets as double-digit favorites in Game 1 that the Game 2 line will actually be lower. Conversely, if the Rockets pull the outright upset in Game 1, the oddsmakers are just as likely to make the Warriors bigger favorites, as a lot of bettors will be looking at them to bounce back. We'll also see what happens in the Cavs-Hawks series. If the Hawks win Game 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland made the favorite in Game 2. After the Game 1s are played, I don't automatically play the loser in Game 2, but I will take that into account and again decide whether I like the losing team to bounce back or the oddsmakers have taken away most of the value.
Good luck in the playoffs, and happy handicapping.