It's not quite the March Madness of the opening Thursday-Friday games of the NCAA tournament, but the Saturday-Sunday start of the NBA playoffs has its own April Appeal.
The playoffs tip off with each first-round series getting a stand-alone televised game over the two days, which is a handicapper's dream to be able to see how all the teams match up. Of course, the goal is for bettors to already have these teams figured out after the long 82-game season and that's what the ESPN Insider NBA Playoff Betting Guide is all about. We'll break down the postseason from several points of view.
First off, we have the NBA Vegas Rankings, where our panel of Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, have the Golden State Warriors as our No. 1 power-rated team despite the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook having the Cleveland Cavaliers as the betting favorite at 9-4. Rynning will assess the future-book prospects of the remaining 16 teams, then I'll give my take on each of the first-round series and also discuss the famous zigzag theory.
Happy handicapping!
NBA Vegas Rankings
Breaking down the future-book board
Identifying true sleepers on the NBA futures board at playoff time is essentially a futile practice. This is a "favorites" league with the very best teams rising to the top over a lengthy 82-game schedule. In addition, the NBA is about star power and the best players reside on the teams that generally flex their muscles in the regular season. The Dallas Mavericks won the NBA title as the No. 3 seed in the 2010-11 season, but the remaining seven previous title clubs were the title favorite/co-favorite heading into the playoffs, including last year's champion San Antonio Spurs. Let's take a look on a team-by-team basis at the NBA futures board provided by the Westgate SuperBook.
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-4): The Cavaliers are regarded as the favorite to win the NBA title as postseason play begins. Cleveland is built around the best player in the game in LeBron James and note the Warriors didn't have an answer for LeBron in their showdown 110-99 victory on their home floor Feb. 26. However, this team isn't an overwhelming favorite from a power rating perspective and must be considered a vulnerable favorite. For their coach and majority of their roster this is still the first time around from a heated playoff perspective.
Golden State Warriors (5-2): The Warriors rank as the second favorite on the futures board as the playoffs begin. They rank as my top team in the NBA, but representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals is a much tougher ask than navigating the East. The Warriors owned the best margin of victory (10.1 points) in the regular season since the 2007-08 Boston Celtics. They catch a break as one of the next two best teams in the conference will be eliminated after Round 1 with the Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers facing off. The Warriors are an example that there's value to be found in future bets early, as the they were roughly 20-1 to win the title in the preseason. As the Warriors enter the postseason their experience in close games remains the major question, because they recorded many blowouts and clinched the top spot in the playoffs early. However, I think this team should be the favorite to bring home the title in June.
San Antonio Spurs (4-1): The defending champions enter the playoffs on a tear, while winning 21 of their last 25 with a margin of victory of 13.6 in those games. However, their loss to the New Orleans Pelicans to close the season will be too much to overcome while falling to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Certainly, there's no value at 4-1 with a daunting slate ahead of them, and even escaping the first round will be tricky on the road.
Atlanta Hawks (12-1): If only the playoffs started back on Feb. 1. The Hawks reeled off one of the most impressive displays of regular-season basketball from Dec. 17 through Jan. 31 with a 23-1 record, and -- more impressive -- knocking off the best teams in the NBA at home and on the road. This all-around team that can beat you in many facets. The Hawks are a true contender that must be taken seriously.
Chicago Bulls (14-1): Championship quality exists on this roster, however they've failed to put it together on the hardwood for any sensible stretch in the regular season. No question, continuity was the major dilemma with multiple players missing time to injury. Defense, which was always their calling card, remains the major question for Tom Thibodeau's club. The Bulls ranked 11th in defensive efficiency this season, while finishing second, sixth, first and first over the previous four years.
Houston Rockets (14-1): The Rockets are another team long on potential, but short on results. In Dwight Howard they own a defensive force who can control a game on the defensive end, while MVP candidate James Harden features the same potential on the offensive end. However, this is a team that just doesn't play well enough together and simply makes too many mistakes.
Los Angeles Clippers (14-1): The enigmatic Clippers are a team that can't be written off. In fact, just when one disregards this team as a championship contender they'll rattle off five impressive wins. Unfortunately, when one is convinced they're ready to compete for a title, lackluster play presents itself. More unfortunate for the Clippers is that they catch a bad draw in this year's tournament. From a Round 1 matchup against the defending champion Spurs, or potential draws against the Rockets and Warriors just to get the Finals, the Clippers are in the rough.
Memphis Grizzlies (25-1): The Grizzlies just don't have enough to realistically challenge for an NBA title. Down the stretch of the regular season this team suffered many questionable losses, which doesn't provide evidence or the consistency for a legitimate title shot. Coach Dave Joerger's dubious late-game management is the final nail in the coffin for any hope.
Portland Trail Blazers (50-1): The Blazers lost any true hope as a contender March 5 when they lost underrated two-way player Wesley Matthews. To make matters worse, they've played as a turnstile defensively over the last month of the season.
Toronto Raptors (50-1): For a team that's decided to disregard playing defense and a court leader that has lost all confidence, 500-1 is the right neighborhood.
Dallas Mavericks (60-1): From a seeding perspective, this is the potential major upset in the first round against the Rockets. However, moving forward they'd be drawing dead.
Washington Wizards (60-1): The good news is the Wizards or Raptors will be eliminated in the first round, but the bad news is one will remain. No shot.
New Orleans Pelicans (100-1): If only this team were in the Eastern Conference. Still, everyone will get to see four or five games of a real MVP candidate in Anthony Davis.
Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets (200-1): No realistic chance.
-- Erin Rynning
Breaking down the first round
Here are my thoughts on each of the first-round series. Last year, I didn't post my NBA picks here but went 20-13 ATS (60.6 percent) on plays posted on my other website and on Twitter. That's a respectable record, but it was actually a disappointment as I started 18-7 ATS (72 percent) in the first two rounds, so hopefully I get off to another fast start this year.
Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors
Westgate series price: Raptors minus-180/Wizards plus-160
Westgate Game 1 lines: Raptors minus-4.5; over/under 193.5
PickCenter intel
I'm a little torn here. Washington was my long shot pick at 30-1 after the NBA Finals last June, but they didn't improve during the regular season as I had hoped and now the Wizards are 60-1. I usually trust my first impressions during the ups and downs (Seattle Seahawks in 2013-14 after I picked them at 12-1, San Francisco Giants in 2014 after I picked them at 20-1), so the plus-160 series price is tempting. However, I'm a little discouraged that the Raptors were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in these teams' regular-season meetings. So, unless I take a flier on the series price, I think I'll just take the Wizards plus the points in their road games and pass on the games in Washington.
Picks: Wizards in Games 1, 2 and 5 and 7 (if necessary).
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors
Westgate series price: Warriors minus-5,000/Pelicans plus-1,500
Westgate Game 1 lines: Warriors minus-11; over/under 204
PickCenter intel
I usually like double-digit underdogs (in any sport), but I'm not sure I'll be stepping up with the Pelicans here. Granted, they were 2-2 SU and ATS versus the Warriors with both teams splitting both home and away, but my power ratings actually have the Warriors nine points better, so this line actually looks a little short. Here's an interesting betting fact: a lot of people love to bet the overs in Warriors' games because they score so much, but they're just 39-43 with overs on the season because the oddsmakers jack up the totals. So, I'll start by playing the under 204 in Saturday's opener and see how the game goes. A good spot for the Pelicans might be in Game 2 (see zigzag piece below) or at home in Game 3, especially if they're down 0-2.
Picks: Under 204 in Game 1; possibly Pelicans plus points in Games 2 and 3.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Westgate series price: Bulls minus-900/Bucks plus-600
Westgate Game 1 lines: Bulls minus-7.5; over/under 187
PickCenter intel
The Bucks did win the last meeting April 1, but the Bulls were 3-1 SU and ATS and I don't expect them to have any trouble passing the Bucks in this round. In fact, if I were a chalk bettor, I'd be starting to think the Game 1 is getting betable as it's down to 7.5. I'll probably be more inclined to take the Bulls in the games in Milwaukee.
Picks: Bulls in Games 3 and 4.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Westgate series price: Rockets minus-270/Mavericks +230
Westgate Game 1 lines: Rockets minus-5.5; over/under 210
PickCenter intel
One of the reasons I got off to such a hot start last year in the NBA playoffs was that I honed in on the Mavericks, as they went 6-1 ATS in their opening series against the Spurs. I look for them to do the same thing with a better chance to pull out the series win. Granted, I know Houston was 3-1 SU and ATS in their regular-season meetings, but Dallas owner Mark Cuban builds for the playoffs and all I know is that in crunch time, I'd rather be counting on Dirk Nowitzki to hit a key shot or free throw than Dwight Howard (who also provides hope for backdoor covers with the Hack-a-Howard strategy).
Picks: Mavericks plus-230 to win series; definitely taking Mavericks plus-5.5 in Game 1 and will take it game by game.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Westgate series price: Cavaliers minus-3,000/Celtics plus-2,300
Westgate Game 1 lines: Cavaliers minus-11; over/under 203
PickCenter intel
I'm not going to call for the Celtics to pull the outright upset (though, as Kevin Garnett told once us, "anything is possible"), but I do believe they can win more games against the spread in this season. As great as LeBron James & Co. can look at times, they're not always able to overcome the big numbers they have to lay. They were only 39-43 ATS while the Celtics were 49-32-1 ATS (60.5 percent), a clear sign of a team that continuously exceeds expectations of oddsmakers and the betting public. In fact, they were 3-1 ATS against the Cavs this season (and, yes, I know that's skewed since LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith didn't play for Cleveland in the last meeting). Another fun fact (similar to the Warriors), the Cavaliers are 48-33-1 (59.3 percent) with the under as people love to bet the over with this team too.
Picks: Celtics plus-11 in Game 1 (though the line is climbing, so wait and get best possible number); possibly in Game 2, especially if they lose Game 1; also betting more unders than overs.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Westgate series price: Hawks minus-1,600/Nets plus-900
Westgate Game 1 lines: Hawks minus-10; over/under 201.5
PickCenter intel
The Hawks earned the East's No. 1 seed with consistent play all year, while the Nets shouldn't even be here. Atlanta did go 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the season series, but based on sheer talent, there's not that big of a gap between these two teams. I do think the Nets can keep some of these games close and get some covers -- and if they can steal a game or two, look out. The Hawks have to be feeling a little underappreciated with the Warriors and Cavaliers getting all the attention despite Atlanta's having the best record, so there is the possibility they could put a lot more pressure on themselves. I'd love to call for the shocking upset, but that plus-900 price is pretty short (heck, Boston is 23-1 against Cleveland in the East's No. 2 vs. 7 matchup).
Picks: Nets plus-10 in Game 1; the better they look, the more I'll play them down the line.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Westgate series price: Grizzlies minus-165/Blazers plus-145
Westgate Game 1 lines: Grizzlies minus-4; over/under 188.5
PickCenter intel
This looks like the series most likely to be dominated by the home teams, and I could see it going that way all the way to Game 7. These teams are very evenly matched (we even have them dead-even in the NBA Vegas Rankings). I'm a little tempted to take the Blazers plus the points in the opener, but it seems a little short with the Grizzlies' home-court advantage (though it has risen from plus-3.5 to plus-4 since the opener and a few places have gone to plus-4.5 so that makes it more appealing).
Picks: Blazers possibly in Game 1; basically, any team getting 5 points or more would be a play for me.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Westgate series price: Spurs minus-170/Clippers plus-150
Westgate Game 1 lines: Clippers minus-1; over/under 205.5
PickCenter intel
This looks like the series most likely to follow the zigzag theory (see below), and it's a shame that one of these teams will be out so early. The Clippers were my 10-1 best bet after the NBA Finals last year, so I feel a little obligation to back them here. I definitely will when they're getting more points in the games in San Antonio. A lot of the early action has been coming in on the Spurs, and they're favored to win the series despite not having home-court advantage, but I'll fade that action, especially if the line gets bet to pick 'em.
Picks: Clippers in Game 1; Clippers plus points in the road games.
-- Dave Tuley
Zigzagging through the NBA playoffs
It's playoff time, so you're bound to hear about the "zigzag theory" if you hang out in betting circles, whether in the real world or the virtual online world. It's also called the "loser of the last" and states that you're supposed to bet the straight-up loser in the next game against the spread. The logic is that the team that loses will make adjustments while the winner won't make adjustments because "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" (note: there are also some who will say the NBA benefits from longer series as it leads to more attendance and more TV ratings and ads, so the trading back and forth of wins adds to the mystique).
Legend has it that the zigzag started with the Gold Sheet, which popularized its use during the 1980s and '90s, and word of it spread even further with the advent of the Internet age. Inevitably, as more people became aware of it, the results dried up. I first wrote about the demise of the zigzag theory in my Daily Racing Forum column in 2006. Marc Lawrence of playbook.com has the zigzag's record being 311-249-10 ATS (55.5 percent) from 1991 through 2000 but then only 475-444-27 ATS (51.6 percent) from 2001 through last season, though it did rebound a little last year at 40-33-1 ATS (54.8 percent).
Part of the reason for the drop-off is just the natural regression to the mean, but there's also the fact that oddsmakers have adjusted over the years to combat the zigzag players. One of my ViewFromVegas.com Forum readers, Mr. Volo, has continued to trumpet the zigzag though he only does it for Game 2 of each series, going on the theory that Game 2 is when the loser of the first game is most desperate to stay in the series. Losers of Game 1 are 32-12-2 ATS (72.7 percent) the past three years; Lawrence has Game 2 zigzaggers as 195-153-13 ATS (56.3 percent) since 1991.
Now, I'm not saying to bet these blindly, but it is something to consider especially after this opening weekend. But I offer a warning: It won't last forever. Again, beware of the oddsmakers' adjustments after Game 1. When a favorite romps in the opener, you would think that logically the line would increase because it proved it's the superior team, yet the line will drop for Game 2 because the oddsmakers know so many people are looking to bet the loser on the zigzag. Conversely, if the underdog pulls the outright upset, you would think the line would be lower, yet the spread will increase on the favorite as bettors look for that team to bounce back.
-- Dave Tuley