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Crawford-Brook expert picks: Former foes and boxing insiders debate Brook's chances

The consensus is clear heading into Saturday's WBO welterweight world title fight at the MGM Grand Conference Center in Las Vegas: Defending champion Terence "Bud" Crawford is a heavy favorite against former titlist Kell Brook, who has historically faltered against some of the sport's top names.

Crawford is certainly in that category. He is the No. 1 fighter in ESPN's pound-for-pound ranking and has won his past seven fights by stoppage. Brook, on the other hand, is facing a top fighter for the first time since he lost the IBF welterweight belt to Errol Spence Jr. in 2017.

However, Brook can be competitive, and perhaps even pull off an upset. ESPN asked a panel of boxing experts for their take on the fight. Here's what they had to say.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity

Buddy McGirt, full-time trainer since 1997, former welterweight champion

How Crawford wins: He just has to come out of the gates a little faster but still stay composed. He just has to do what he normally does. Kell Brook can fight, but my question is how much did his loss in the fight to Errol Spence affect him? How much did it take out of him? With the injury to the eye socket, it's like how much do you have left after a fight like that?

How Brook wins: He has to offset Crawford's rhythm. He can't let Crawford get a rhythm going. Brook has to give Crawford different looks every round and every other round. Once Crawford figures you out, that's it. You have to be on point with that. It's hard to say what specifically, because it all depends on what Bud does. Brook has to be ready to offset it.

X factor: Brook has to get Crawford's attention and make him respect him some. That's very important. A guy like Crawford, he's already confident and he's going there with confidence, but you have to give him something to think about. If you don't give him anything to think about, he's just going to walk right through you.

Prediction: I think Crawford is eventually going to pull it out in the later rounds. I just think at this point, no one at that weight is going to beat Terence Crawford. I think he's the best at 147 right now.


Sergio Mora, DAZN analyst, former junior middleweight world titlist

How Crawford wins: He's probably one of the best fighters who fights angry. Normally you don't want a fighter angry because he's fighting out of character -- they try to look for the knockout too much. But Crawford is one of the very few that, not only is he the best finisher in boxing right now, but he fights with that mean spirit and chip on his shoulder. He's just a mean dude. I don't think anything Brook can offer to do anything, honestly. Nothing. This is going to be a one-sided beat down.

How Brook wins: He needs to have the fight of his life, which I think he doesn't have it anymore at 34. He's going to be facing his third elite pound-for-pound fighter. He lost to Spence, a top 10 pound-for-pound. He lost to [Gennadiy] Golovkin, a top pound-for-pound [guy]. And both times, he got knocked out. So we know what Kell Brook is on the pound-for-pound stage, and now he's fighting maybe, arguably, the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. I just think he bites too much than he can chew. It just goes to show what type of fighter he is. But he's outmanned, outclassed, outstrengthened, out-everything'd on this one.

X factor: Maybe if Crawford stays on the inside too long going to the body, digging down, staying there a little too long, Brook could come over the top with something big and catch lighting in a bottle.

Prediction: I think it ends by stoppage. Brook's corner will stop it again because I don't think he'll give up. I think his corner saves him, which is the right thing to do. I think they'll start doing it as soon as they see their man in trouble.


Vergil Ortiz, ESPN's No. 8 welterweight, 2019 ESPN prospect of the year

How Crawford wins: Bud just needs to be Bud and do what he does best. He's a great boxer. He has power in both hands. He goes to the top and the body. I think that's it.

How Brook wins: He needs to be able to take it to Crawford. I know that he said he's willing to walk through bullets -- I don't think he should do that. He already had a major injury against GGG to his orbital bone. I don't think he should be taking any more punishment that's unnecessary. To beat Crawford, he has to be able to put pressure, but he has to be able to not get hit as well.

Brook just needs to pick his shots. Every boxer, they do a lot of thinking inside -- "Does he react to this, does he react to that?" He has to be able to feint, to read Crawford's movements, to know what his habits and weaknesses are, if he can fall for anything, things like that.

X factor: We saw Crawford get hurt against "Mean Machine" Egidijus Kavaliauskas. With different boxers, when you fight someone who's not orthodox -- not right-handed orthodox, but they just fight weird -- it throws you off. If Brook can add that element in there, he can hurt Crawford. He can potentially do some real damage right there.

Prediction: Crawford will probably get him in the later rounds. He has power in both hands. I don't think there are too many people smarter than Crawford. He probably has the best knowledge in his range in boxing right now. Brook is a really good fighter and I have no doubts about him being a good fighter. I just think Crawford is better.


Teddy Atlas, ESPN analyst, host of "THE FIGHT with Teddy Atlas" podcast

How Crawford wins: He needs to make the guy pay a price trying to get in, because Brook is probably going to do it the only way he knows how to do it -- pretty simple, standard sort of way of trying to close the gap to a certain extent. So Crawford's going to have to make that painful. He has to make that a cost.

Like I used to always say when I was calling the fights: be like a real estate agent. Charge him for real estate. He tries to close in a foot? Charge him. But instead of money, punches. Charge him a combination. Charge him for three punches, two punches, for every foot that he tries to make on you. He's going to have to control range, not get caught with anything early.

How Brook wins: Well, he needs to get rid of the ghost in his head. He needs to do an exorcism. He needs to have a memory lapse. Most people don't want to have a memory lapse. He needs to have one of the things that have happened in the past three years or so for him. He needs to forget about that.

I look at reality. You're going to get other people who are going to talk about, "Oh, this and that." But I'm not about mirages -- about what could be and what you hope is there in the desert. When you get there, there's nothing but sand. The reality is that he has had his eye socket broken twice. He has been stopped twice. He has submitted once. I know he was in there with a bigger middleweight Golovkin in 2016. I get it. But still. It is what it is. When that has happened, well, there are consequences to that. There are ramifications that stay with that in my business, the reality of it. Your spirit has been broken. That's the worst thing a fighter can have happen to him. So he's damaged goods.

X factor: You have to remember Crawford is a guy who has moved up from lightweight, from where he initially started this journey. And he holds the weight well. He has this skeleton size. Not the physicality so much, but the length. And his power has carried with him pretty well, no doubt about it. But still, Brook's not in there with a big guy now. And the guys who did damage to him were the big guys. Maybe he can use his size a little bit.

Prediction: I think the best of Kell Brook will be early. And then I think Crawford will get his rhythm. He will shake off some of the rust, get in control of the fight, do something to discourage, to bring Brook bad memories. And then physically make him pay a price to try to negotiate his way in close. I think Crawford will break Brook down around the ninth round. As the fight gets into those later quarters, he'll be in complete control by then and start to land meaningful punches, punches that I think will give him a good chance to win by stoppage.


Shawn Porter, ESPN's No. 4 welterweight, former WBC champion, fought Brook in 2014

How Crawford wins: Brook is going to be patient, he's not going to waste any energy. I don't anticipate Brook trying to walk down Crawford or anything else. I'm actually pretty interested to see how the fight starts and how Brook starts. If Terence gets into his normal rhythm, he's able to jab, step to the side and use that counterpunching ability, I think he'll get into a rhythm. Once he starts to gets into a rhythm, what I expect to happen is it will make Brook a little frustrated and make him start to rush a little. If you make him rush, you get him out of that conventional boxing style that he has. That opens up a lot of other offensive moves.

How Brook wins: I think the main thing for Brook is that he remains calm and structured. When he fought me, and when I've seen him fight a lot of guys, he uses his jab very well. He's just a very good, conventional British boxer. And that can give American fighters trouble. If he doesn't get the reactions that he's used to getting from American fighters and some other foreign fighters that he has fought, it might force him to change something about himself. However, with Brook remaining true to his boxing style, being a very good, conventional boxer, it will open up opportunities that most people haven't been able to open up against Crawford.

X factor: The power of Brook. Right now, the credit that they do give Brook is him being a natural 147-pound fighter or a big 147-pound fighter. For me, a lot of times, the size isn't as relevant as most people feel it is. However, I do think it is in this fight. Brook brings a lot more strength than a lot of people to know. His strength and how well he holds up to Crawford's offense will dictate the pace of the fight, will dictate a lot of twists and turns the fight takes.

Prediction: This is going to be a good boxing match. I think it's going to be a little more competitive than people expect. I think most people don't remember that the fight with Jose Benavidez (against Crawford in 2018) -- it was a competitive fight. Even though Benavidez wasn't winning rounds, he presented some subtle things that slowed Crawford down a little bit. I expect the same thing to happen in this fight. I think Crawford will be slowed down just a little bit by Brook's style, but I think that as the fight goes on, Crawford is going to start to leave Brook behind, whether that's the pace or the action overall. I think he's going to outpoint Brook and win a unanimous decision.