Everyone has a different definition of a breakout player. I like a definition vague enough for me to list rookies as well as second-, third- and fourth-year players who will turn their modest success into a whole other level of performance and production. Here are the players I think will have huge years in 2017:
1. Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
Schwarber showed the world how amazing his bat is when he made his season debut -- in the World Series -- and went 7-for-17 with three walks for a .500 OBP. Schwarber's bat is so special that his potential this season is in the range of .310/.380/.580 with 25-30 home runs and 100 RBIs if he ends up hitting in the middle of the Cubs' lineup. Schwarber has exceptional bat speed, a clean setup and stance and a direct path to the ball that accounts for consistent sweet-spot contact. What type of “breakout” do I think he’ll have? I think we’ll be talking about him next fall in the same breath as Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. He’s that good!
2. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman was the Astros' first-round selection in the 2015 draft and was the second player taken overall behind Dansby Swanson. In his first 10 games, Bregman went 2-for-38 (.053 BA). After Aug. 5 through the end of the season, he hit .313 with 34 RBIs and had 24 extra-base hits, leading the Astros in those three categories in that time. Bregman is a player who puts the ball in play, draws walks, has 20-homer power and has the ability to get on base at a .400 clip. The pure shortstop is expected to be play third base and will be well above average there too. His swing is clean, simple and straight to the ball. His makeup and character are off the charts and will help him make the constant adjustments needed to deal with opposing pitchers. He's fully developed and ready to be a difference-maker this year.
The Rockies selected Gray with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft, immediately after the Cubs took Bryant. Gray has always had dominating stuff that includes a 94-97 mph fastball, a hard, nasty 88 mph slider, a 78 mph, 12-6 curveball and a solid changeup. Last year, Gray had to figure out that on the road, he can start his curveball at the batter's shoulder and it will land at the knees, but at Coors Field, he needs to start it at the belt to get the same result. Gray ultimately did that, plus he showed a lot of maturity on and off the field, according to the Rockies' front office. His ERA was actually a half-run better at home, and his hit and strikeout ratios per nine innings were almost identical at Coors and on the road. Gray not only has a chance to be a No. 1 starter and an ace for Colorado but also has the potential to be the best Rockies pitcher ever.
4. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been very careful with Urias, limiting him to just over 120 innings last season in the minor and major leagues combined. This year, they are expected to increase his innings to the 150-160 range without a definitive cap and keep an open mind for the postseason, as they did last year. Urias got off to a slow start in 2016, going 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA in his first eight starts. However, he put it all together in the second half and ended up 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 10 appearances (seven starts). Urias' mid-90s fastball has great movement, and he throws his slider, curveball and changeup almost as often, with the ability to add and subtract velocity on all of them. He has one of the best pickoff moves in baseball and is a tremendous fielding pitcher with really quick feet, hands and wrists. He should be the one pitching Game 2 of the playoffs after Clayton Kershaw come October.
5. Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
If you read the scouting reports on Polanco, you know he's a talented athlete with well above average power, speed and strength. Plug in his statistics for his first three seasons in the big leagues, add in his age (25), listen to his manager Clint Hurdle talk about the adjustments he’s making, run an algorithm on his upward trends, and Polanco projects to play in his first All-Star Game and finish the year with what should be career highs in his slash line, home runs and WAR. He’s ready to go to the next level -- and it’s going to be fun watching him get there.
6. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
Here’s my pick for American League Rookie of the Year, and it was an easy decision, especially if White Sox prospect Yoan Moncada starts the season in the minor leagues. Benintendi has such a perfect swing that it’s hard to believe he’ll ever suffer prolonged slumps or worry much about making adjustments. He hits all kinds of pitches, can handle both sides of the plate and can go foul pole to foul pole. What’s amazing is the backspin he gets on the ball -- how it just flies off his bat with consistent sweet-spot contact. He should be owning the Green Monster for doubles and hooking balls around the Pesky Pole on a regular basis. He has great plate discipline, as shown by his ability to walk more than he strikes out. His above-average speed, instincts and first-step quickness should make for a special rookie season.
7. David Dahl, Rockies
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich told me the ceiling for Dahl is Andrew McCutchen in his prime. This coming from the same man who predicted Trevor Story would hit 25 home runs last year. Dahl, like McCutchen, has the great combination of power and speed, and I think you’ll find 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases realistic this year. He’ll begin the season as the team’s starting left fielder, but eventually, he'll be moved to center because he’s a better defender than Charlie Blackmon. How good was he in the minors? He already has been voted best batting prospect, best defensive outfielder and most exciting player by Baseball America's polls of minor league managers. It's showtime at Coors.
8. Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies
Franco has the bat speed, raw power and loud, sweet-spot contact we look for in middle-of-the-lineup hitters. His rookie year in 2015 was impressive, as he slashed .280/.343/.497 with 15 home runs and 50 RBIs. He followed that last year with an impressive 25 home runs and 88 RBIs despite a regression in his slash line to .255/.306/.427. But you have to take into account the league's making adjustments to him in his sophomore year, combined with his having zero protection in the lineup around him. Franco will play most of this season at age 24, and I expect a significant boost in his third full major league season in both his slash line and his home runs -- which should reach 30.
9. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Bundy showed snapshots of greatness last season, highlighted by three of his August starts against postseason teams: seven innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Texas Rangers on Aug. 2, 5⅔ innings of one-run ball against the San Francisco Giants on Aug. 12 and six innings of three-hit, three-run ball against the Washington Nationals on Aug. 22. He is finally healthy and primed to take his game to the next level. He not only is the best chess player on the Orioles but also has the highest ceiling of any of their starters.
10. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Buxton reminds me of former Cincinnati Reds great Eric Davis. Buxton has great athleticism, speed, power, agility, strength and a strong throwing arm. He blazes around the bases and runs balls down in the alleys. His only problem is that he was rushed to the majors before he was ready, and that forced him to fail for the first time in his life. Some holes at the plate were exposed, and that led to a slow start to his big league career -- as evidenced by his .220/.274/.398 slash line. He hit 12 home runs and stole 12 bases in his first 138 MLB games. His five-year minor league career has been a much different story, as shown by his .302/.380/.501 slash line, which should translate to the major league level. Buxton is just 23, and the only question I have is will he break out this year or next? I’ll go out on a limb and say this year.