This free-agent class, known as the 2017 class, is one of the weakest in recent memory, but it does have a couple of impact middle-of-the-lineup bats (Edwin Encarnacion, Yoenis Cespedes), a couple of shutdown closers (Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman), strong defensive catchers (Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro) and outfielders with speed/power tools (Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond). As such, we should have plenty of bidding and negotiating to track this offseason.
But because of the weak class, one common theme I think we'll see compared with previous years is that teams will offer fewer years but slightly more AAV (average annual value). Contracts that normally would be 6-8 years will now be 4-5 years, but clubs will pay more per year. Also, as MLB revenue continues to grow, player salaries should rise as well.
The following is my estimate of what I think 50 of the top free agents will be paid this winter in terms of contract length, overall contract value and AAV, as well as which teams each player fits best. (In many cases, the team noted already has expressed interest.)
But first, some background: I served in front offices of major league teams for a quarter of a century, 15 of those years as a senior VP/GM. During that time, my responsibilities included studying free agents and the risks that come with them -- including age, injuries, makeup/character, statistical concerns and personal issues. I would scour every stat report, scouting report and developmental report I could, along with closely monitoring industry revenues and the impact they could have on my teams. Then there's the basic decline or improvement in physical ability and what it does for future projections. That's all juxtaposed against overall market shifts.
This is my sixth year projecting free-agent salaries for ESPN Insider. These are always a mix of gut instinct, evaluating new and old contracts and consultation with several people presently involved in the day-to-day operations of the sport, from both the agent and club sides.
A few other premises to keep in mind as you sift through my pricing of the top 50 MLB free agents:
1. The ranks themselves are based on my preferential order of the players, not by contract value.
2. Player salaries and terms are often based on position and supply and demand rather than just overall talent. That's just how the free-agent market works.
3. Another defining characteristic of the FA market: Signings from last year, both good and bad, will affect how some clubs do business.
4. The qualifying offer has increased to $17.2 million this year (from $15.8 million last year), which will have a domino effect on some free agents.
5. This list does not include any international free agents for two reasons: Because of the various posting fees, rules and regulations for signing international FAs, there's no guarantee the player will actually become a true free agent; and most important, I have never personally met those guys or seen them play. I don't care to project years and values on a player like that.
6. This does not include players who signed early in the process (Kendrys Morales, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey) or players who accepted their qualifying offers (Jeremy Hellickson, Neil Walker).
7. "Comps" stands for comparable contracts.
With that, let's get to my rankings and pricing of the top 50 free agents in this year's class:
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
1. Yoenis Cespedes, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 5
2016 WAR: 2.9
Comps: Justin Upton (6 years, $132M); Jason Heyward (8 years, $184M); Chris Davis (7 years, $161M)
Cespedes is the best overall player in this year's class, but don't expect him to get the contract length Upton, Heyward and Davis received a year ago. That said, I think he'll get a higher AAV than all of them and should get a fifth year. The Mets are clearly the best fit, as he has proved over the past couple of years that he can carry them for periods of time.
Projected contract: Five years, $129 million (AAV: $25.8M)
Best fits: Mets, Orioles, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, Astros
SIGNED with Mets (4 years, $110 million)
2. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 12
2016 WAR: 3.7
Comps: Chris Davis (7 years, $161M); Joe Mauer (8 years, $184M); Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180M); Adrian Gonzalez (7 years, $154M); Ryan Howard (5 years, $125M)
Encarnacion hit 34 or more home runs each of the past five seasons and drove in 100 or more runs in four of the past five, and as an underrated first baseman defensively, he's certainly not limited to teams looking for a DH. The three-time All-Star would fit nicely in the middle of any team's lineup, with Toronto and Houston the most likely landing spots.
Projected contract: 5 years, $120 million (AAV: $24M)
Best fits: Blue Jays, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Astros, Cardinals
SIGNED with Cleveland (3 years, $60 million
3. Kenley Jansen, RP
Age: 29 | B-T: B/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 2.5
Comps: Mariano Rivera (5 years, $75M); Rafael Soriano (2 years, $28M); Jonathan Papelbon (4 years, $50M)
The market for elite closers blew up at the trade deadline last July when teams were willing to load up a truck of top prospects to trade for them; now the currency will by years and currency, and both Jansen and Aroldis Chapman will benefit immensely. Jansen is a game-changer for contending teams, and his great makeup, durability and ability to pitch multiple innings when needed are the main reasons I have him slightly ahead of Chapman here. Dominant is the best word to describe him.
Projected contract: 5 years, $87.5 million (AAV: $17.5M)
Best fits: Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Yankees, Rangers, Giants
SIGNED with Dodgers (5 years, $80 million)
4. Aroldis Chapman, RP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 2.5
Comps: Mariano Rivera (5 years, $75M); Rafael Soriano (2 years, $28M); Jonathan Papelbon (4 years, $50M)
Nobody threw more fastballs with triple-digit velocity in the major leagues last year than Chapman, and the Cubs wouldn't have gotten to or won the World Series without him (which is why they gave up such a significant prospect package to get him in July). Chapman will soon be the highest-paid reliever in baseball history, surpassing Mariano Rivera, and don't be surprised if the Yankees are the team that pays him that much.
Projected contract: 5 years, $90 million (AAV: $18M)
Best fits: Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Yankees, Rangers, Giants
SIGNED with Yankees (5 years, $86 million (AAV: $17.2M)
5. Dexter Fowler, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: B/R
Years in league: 9
2016 WAR: 4.2
Comps: Melvin Upton Jr. (5 years, $75.25M); Michael Bourn (4 years, $48M); Adam Jones (6 years, $85.5M), Johnny Damon (4 years, $52M)
Fowler's defense improved this season after he learned from the metrics that he would be better off if he positioned himself deeper in center field. The adjustment worked. His career high .393 OBP also has spiked his value and interest, and the most important tipping point for clubs was that the Cubs were 87-41 with him in the lineup and just 23-20 when he wasn't. I like the Cardinals as the best fit for him.
Projected contract: 5 years, $80 million (AAV: $16M)
Best fits: Cardinals, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Blue Jays, Mets, Giants, Astros
SIGNED with Cardinals (5 years, $82.5 million)
6. Justin Turner, 3B
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 4.9
Comps: Pablo Sandoval (5 years, $95M); Martin Prado (3 years, $40M); Chase Headley (4 years, $52M)
Turner was the Dodgers' best right-handed hitter, and he had the best year of his career, belting 27 home runs with 90 RBIs and an .832 OPS. His solid defense and leadership adds even more value. He'll get a higher AAV than both Prado and Headley but will fall short of the Sandoval/Evan Longoria/Ryan Zimmerman range. The only question will be whether he gets the fourth year or maybe even a fifth year because of the thin market.
Projected contract: 4 years, $68 million (AAV: $17 million)
Best fits: Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets
SIGNED with Dodgers (4 years, $64 million (AAV: $16 million)
7. Ian Desmond, CF/LF/SS
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 2.7
Comps: Melvin Upton Jr. (5 years, $75.25M); Michael Bourn (4 years, $48M); Curtis Granderson (4 years, $60M); Carlos Beltran (4 years, $60M); Nick Swisher (4 years, $56M)
Desmond has a good power/speed combination, as shown by his four 20-homer, 20-steal seasons over the past five seasons. He had a fairly seamless transition to center field -- although he's still a below-average defender -- and has a strong arm. He is versatile and willing to play several positions, including left field or a return to his old position of shortstop. He has strong leadership qualities and has been a positive influence in the clubhouse.
Projected contract: 4 years, $62 million (AAV: $15.5 million)
Best fits: Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Rays, Indians, Mariners, Phillies, Marlins
SIGNED with Rockies (5 years, $70 million; AAV: $14 million)
8. Rich Hill, SP
Age: 36 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 12
2016 WAR: 4.1
Comps: John Lackey (2 years, $32M); Hiroki Kuroda (1 year, $16M); Ervin Santana (3 years, $41.2M); Hisashi Iwakuma (3 years, $40M)
Hill is the best starting pitcher on this market, and because of supply and demand, he'll probably end up getting a third year or at least two years and a vesting option. He certainly proved this year that September 2015 was not a fluke, posting a 12-5 record and 2.12 ERA. Because his innings pitched odometer is relatively low and he keeps himself in great shape, he should be able to perform at this level for at least two more years with some risk evident in Year 3.
Projected contract: 3 years, $49.5M (AAV: $16.5M)
Best fits: Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Marlins, Braves, Royals
SIGNED with Dodgers (3 years, $48 million)
9. Jose Bautista, RF/DH
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 13
2016 WAR: 1.0
Comps: David Ortiz (2 years, $32M); Carlos Beltran (3 years, $45M); (Victor Martinez (4 years, $68M); Nelson Cruz (4 years, $57M)
Bautista struggled in 2016 with various injuries, and for the first time in his career, he showed signs of decline, which likely will continue. However, his strong finish to the season -- he posted a .411 OBP in September/October with five homers and 17 RBIs -- shows that he's not done. He doesn't have many great team fits, because most scouts think his next team should be an AL team so he can DH once or twice per week. I still think his best spot is remaining north of the border.
Projected contract: 3 years, $48 million (AAV: $16M)
Best fits: Blue Jays, Mets, Astros, Mariners
SIGNED with Blue Jays (1 year, $18 million)
10. Wilson Ramos, C
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 3.3
Comps: Brian McCann (5 years, $85M); Russell Martin (5 years, $82M); Miguel Montero (5 years, $60M)
Ramos was set to break the bank after his fantastic 2016 season (.307/.354/.496, 22 homers, 80 RBIs), looking at a four- or five-year deal with an AAV north of $15 million. Then he suffered another major injury to his right knee on Sept. 26.
Following extensive knee surgery, he's just too much of a risk for a team to commit long-term dollars to. Doctors think he can be back as early as May or June 2017, but only time will tell if he returns to 100 percent. He's better off taking a one-year "pillow" deal with a low base but significant incentives based on games played that can take him back to the $15 million-per-year range and then go back on the free-agent market next offseason.
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million (AAV: $10M)
Best fits: Nationals, Braves, Astros, Twins, White Sox
SIGNED with Rays (2 years, $12.5 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
11. Matt Wieters, C
Age: 30 | B-T: B/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 1.7
Comps: Brian McCann (5 years, $85M); Russell Martin (5 years, $82M); Miguel Montero (5 years, $60M).
Wieters showed signs at the end of the 2016 season that his throwing arm was returning to form, and another year removed from Tommy John surgery can only help in that respect. I look for him to return to his Gold Glove-caliber ways in 2017. Offensively, while he did hit 17 doubles and 17 homers in 464 plate appearances, he also posted just a .302 OBP. He's not getting a McCann or Martin type of deal, but he'll do a lot better than most people think.
Projected contract: 3 years, $40 million (AAV: $13.33M)
Best fits: Braves, Angels, Rockies, Astros, Nationals, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Rays
SIGNED with Nationals (2 years, $21 million)
12. Mark Melancon, RP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 2.8
Comps: David Robertson (4 years, $35M); Francisco Rodriguez (3 years, $37M); Jonathan Papelbon (3 years, $36M)
Melancon might not have the dominant stuff that Chapman and Jansen have, but he still has been one of the most effective closers in baseball over the past three years, converting 131 of 141 save opportunities with a WHIP below 1.00, and he's coming off his best season yet (1.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 47 saves). He's going to get paid well.
Projected contract: 3 years, $37.5 million (AAV: $12.5M)
Best fits: Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers
SIGNED with Giants (4 years, $62 million)
13. Mark Trumbo, RF/1B/DH
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 1.6
Comps: Nelson Cruz (4 years, $57M); Nick Swisher (4 years, $56M); Carlos Beltran (4 years, $60M)
Trumbo's best position is either first base or right field, and his big-time power (47 homers in 2016) and strong arm are clearly his best two assets. Trumbo will always have a low on-base percentage, but he works at his craft and is a perfect fit for clubs that have hitter-favorable parks (like Baltimore).
Projected contract: 4 years, $58 million (AAV: $14.5M)
Best fits: Orioles, Rangers, Athletics, Rockies, Phillies, Reds
RE-SIGNED with Orioles (3 years, $37.5 million)
14. Greg Holland, RP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 6
2016 WAR: DNP
Comps: David Robertson (4 years, $35M); Francisco Rodriguez (3 years, $37M); Jonathan Papelbon (3 years, $36M); Jim Johnson (1 year, $10M); Brian Wilson (1 year, $10M); Joe Nathan (2 years, $20M)
Holland was an elite closer for the Royals in 2013 and 2014, racking up 93 saves, a 1.31 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP before succumbing to Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 season. He will be 16-17 months post-surgery next spring, and if all goes well, he could be dominating again by next June. He would have been in the Jansen-Chapman discussion had he stayed healthy, but he'll likely have to settle for a one-year pillow deal with a low base and significant incentives. He'll get his big payday next offseason if all goes as planned.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million plus incentives
Best fits: Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers
SIGNED with Rockies (1 year, $7 million)
15. Josh Reddick, RF
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 2.6
Comps: Nick Swisher (4 years, $56M); Carlos Beltran (4 years, $60M); Torii Hunter (2 years, $26M); Michael Bourn (4 years, $48M); Jose Guillen (3 years, $36M)
Reddick had his best season in 2015 but took a step back this year in large part because he was traded midseason. After the trade, he had trouble adjusting to his new role as a platoon right fielder and a new league of pitchers. After a year in which he hit .322 against right-handed pitching and just .155 against lefties, teams like the Blue Jays are looking at him as a right-field platoon option (with Melvin Upton Jr. in Toronto's case). He's an above-average defender with a shutdown arm. A return to Oakland might be his best play so he can again be an every-day player.
Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million (AAV: $13M)
Best fits: Athletics, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Mariners, Orioles, Royals, Astros
SIGNED with Astros (4 years, $52 million)
16. Mike Napoli, 1B
Age: 35 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 11
2016 WAR: 1.0
Comps: Napoli three years ago (2 years, $32M); Adam Dunn (4 years, $56M); Travis Hafner (4 years, $57M); Carlos Beltran (3 years, $45M)
Napoli has been to the postseason in eight of his 11 MLB seasons, and that's not just a coincidence. He has been a leader on his teams and a great mentor for younger players as he once again showed this year with the Indians. His 34 homers and 101 RBIs, of course, is the primary reason he's going to get a multiyear deal and be paid well.
Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million (AAV: $14M)
Best fits: Indians, Rangers, Royals, Mariners.
SIGNED with Rangers (1 year, $8.5 million)
17. Jason Castro, C
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 6
2016 WAR: 0.9
Comps: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (3 years, $21M); Kurt Suzuki (2 years, $12M); John Buck (3 years, $18M); Francisco Cervelli (3 years, $31M).
Castro is a tremendous defensive catcher with strong framing and game-calling skills. There's not a lot of offensive upside -- he has a .309 lifetime OBP -- though he does have respectable (for a catcher) 10-15 home run power. He fits best with a team that is trying to develop talented young pitching.
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million (AAV: $7.5M)
Best fits: Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Angels, Rockies, Rays, Twins
SIGNED with Twins (3 years, $24.5 million)
18. Carlos Beltran, DH
Age: 39 | B-T: B/R
Years in league: 19
2016 WAR: 2.0
Comps: His own previous contract (making $15M per year)
Beltran is at that point in his career when he should be a full-time DH, with only occasional games in right field. He definitely can still hit, as evidenced by his .850 OPS, 29 homers and 93 RBIs in 2016. I expect him to land on an AL contender, and he shouldn't have to take a pay cut.
Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million (AAV: $15M)
Best fits: Red Sox, Rangers, Royals, Mariners, Astros.
SIGNED with Astros (1 year, $16 million)
19. Jason Hammel, SP
Age: 34 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 11
2016 WAR: 1.1
Comps: Brandon McCarthy (4 years, $48M); Ervin Santana (3 years, $41.2M); Mark Buehrle (4 years, $58M); R.A. Dickey (1 year, $8M); Bartolo Colon (1 year, $12.5M); Jorge De La Rosa (2 years, $25M); Scott Feldman (3 years, $30M)
Hammel has logged at least 165 innings and double-digit wins in each of the past three seasons. He continues to be a strong first-half starter who tends to fall off toward the end of the season.
Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million (AAV: $13M)
Best fits: Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Braves, Rockies, Padres, Athletics, Angels, Twins, Royals
SIGNED with Royals (2 years, $16 million)
20. Ivan Nova, SP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 2.0
Comps: Brandon McCarthy (4 years, $48M); Ervin Santana (3 years, $41.2M); Mark Buehrle (4 years, $58M); Bartolo Colon (1 year, $12.5M); R.A. Dickey (1 year, $8M); Jorge De La Rosa (2 years, $25M); Scott Feldman (3 years, $30M)
Nova came into his own after his trade from the Yankees to the Pirates. He pounded the strike zone early and a lot more often than he did with the Yankees, which paid huge dividends for him on the field and now will do so for his bank account this offseason.
Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million (AAV: $12M)
Best fits: Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Braves, Rockies, Padres, Athletics, Angels, Twins, Royals
SIGNED with Pirates (3 years, $26 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
21. Edinson Volquez, SP
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 12
2016 WAR: -0.8
Comps: R.A. Dickey (1 year, $8M); Bartolo Colon (1 year, $12.5M); Jorge De La Rosa (2 years, $25M); Scott Feldman (3 years, $30M)
Volquez has won double-digit games three straight seasons but is coming off a subpar year. He turned down his $10 million mutual option and should be able to do better than that thanks to his career track record.
Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million (AAV: $12M)
Best fits: Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Braves, Rockies, Padres, Athletics, Angels, Twins
SIGNED with Marlins (2 years, $22 million)
22. Matt Holliday, LF/DH/1B
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 13
2016 WAR: 0.3
Comps: Howie Kendrick (2 years, $20M); Ian Desmond (1 year, $8M)
Holliday fought through injuries but still managed to hit 20 home runs. At this point in his career, it probably would do him best to move to the American League, where he could split time at DH, first base and left field. He can help a contending team win or help mentor young players.
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Best fits: Rockies, Cardinals, Rangers, Royals, Athletics, Indians
SIGNED with Yankees (1 year, $13 million)
23. Angel Pagan, LF
Age: 35 | B-T: B/R
Years in league: 11
2016 WAR: 1.0
Comps: Gerardo Parra (3 years, $27.5m); Chris Young (2 years, $13M)
Pagan hit 12 home runs and stole 15 bases, with a respectable .331 on-base percentage, in 2016. He can play both center and left field and has drawn interest from a few teams needing a center fielder and other teams as more of a versatile corner or fourth outfielder.
Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million (AAV: $8M)
Best fits: Giants, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Tigers, White Sox
24. Brad Ziegler, RP
Age: 37 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 9
2016 WAR: 2.2
Comps: Joaquin Benoit (2 years, $15.5M); Sergio Romo (2 years, $15M)
Ziegler had another solid year with a combined 2.25 ERA in 69 appearances with both the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. With so many teams needing middle and setup relievers, he should do very well despite his age.
Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million (AAV: $8M)
Best fits: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Nationals, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies
SIGNED with Marlins (2 years, $16 million)
25. Michael Saunders, OF
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 1.3
Comps: Gerardo Parra (3 years, $27.5M); Carlos Gomez (3 years, $24M)
Saunders was an All-Star this year while belting 32 doubles and 24 home runs to go along with a .338 on-base percentage. However, he dipped in the second half, hitting just .178 with a .282 on-base percentage and only eight of his 24 homers coming after the All-Star break.
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million (AAV: $9M)
Best fits: Blue Jays, Phillies, Twins, Athletics, White Sox, Angels
SIGNED with Phillies (1 year, $9 million)
26. Sergio Romo, RP
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 9
2016 WAR: 0.8
Romo converted all four saves down the stretch for the Giants and contributed 14 holds in his 40 appearances while fighting through injuries. His best role is as a setup reliever, and he can still get hitters out with his slider alone.
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million (AAV: $7.5M)
Best fits: Giants, Athletics, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Rockies
SIGNED with Dodgers (1 year, $3 million)
27. Travis Wood, SP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/L
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 0.5
Wood can pitch long, middle, short or situational relief, or he could be used as a fifth starter. He was used brilliantly by Cubs manager Joe Maddon, which resulted in his career-best ERA of 2.95. The current weak market for lefty relievers makes Wood (and others) a bit more in demand.
Projected contract: 3 years, $21 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Nationals, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Royals, Astros, Rangers
SIGNED with Royals (2 years, $12 million)
28. Santiago Casilla, RP
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 13
2016 WAR: 0.8
Casilla had nine blown saves but still had good stuff as shown by his 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His best role is now as a setup reliever. A change of scenery and different division or league could really help him.
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Giants, Angels, Tigers, Pirates, Orioles, Mariners
SIGNED with Athletics (2 years, $11 million)
29. Andrew Cashner, SP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: -0.7
Cashner had a disastrous season overall and had a particularly tough time in Miami, as shown by his 5.98 ERA and 1.747 WHIP there. He'll have to sign a one-year deal and try to bring his market back for next offseason.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Best fits: Athletics, Angels, Twins, Marlins, Rockies, Padres
SIGNED with Rangers (1 year, $10 million)
30. Carlos Gomez, CF/LF
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 10
2016 WAR: 0.1
Gomez was released midseason by the Astros after hitting just .210 and showing a decline defensively in center field. He rebounded when he signed with the Rangers and finished strong with a slash line of .284/.362/.543 in 33 games. A one-year deal is probably best for him and the team that signs him.
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Rangers, Giants, Brewers, Nationals
SIGNED with Rangers (1 year, $11.5 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
31. Doug Fister, SP
Age: 32 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 0.0
Fister provided 180 1/3 innings as a back-of-the-rotation type starter and might be able to get a two-year deal because of his 12 wins and 4.64 ERA.
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Astros, Marlins, Rockies, Athletics, Angels, Twins
32. Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B/DH
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 0.7
Alvarez is a one-dimensional player who still has 30-35 home run power if he plays every day and if you can live with his .311 lifetime on-base percentage at the DH position.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Best fits: Orioles, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Royals, Rays
33. Rajai Davis, LF
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 11
2016 WAR: 0.4
Davis led the AL in stolen bases with 43, and his huge World Series Game 7 two-run, tying home run will certainly improve his market. He doesn't get good jumps or angles in the outfield, but makes up for it with his speed. His best role is as a fourth outfielder.
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Indians, Athletics, Mariners, Rays, Twins, Giants, Tigers
SIGNED with A's (1 year, $6 million)
34. Chase Utley, 2B
Age: 37 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 14
2016 WAR: 2.0
Utley is extremely cerebral. He's always studying the game and helping his teammates be better players. He hit 14 home runs this year and played well defensively. However, he's also 37 years old and in decline.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Best fits: Dodgers, Angels
RE-SIGNED with Dodgers (1 year, $2 million)
35. Brandon Moss, 1B/OF
Age: 33 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 10
2016 WAR: 0.8
Moss hit 28 home runs last year while adequately playing first base, left field and right field. His slash line of .225/.300/.484 tells the rest of the story, but he's still a solid extra player to have come off the bench because of the left-handed power and corner versatility.
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million (AAV: $8.5M)
Best fits: Cardinals, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Giants
SIGNED with Royals (2 years, $12 million)
36. Mitch Moreland, 1B
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 0.7
Moreland won his first Gold Glove Award this year, which tells you how much he has improved defensively over the past several years. He also belted 22 home runs with 60 RBIs. His .233/.298/.422 slash line means he has to fit on a team that already has a potent lineup.
Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million (AAV: $8.5M)
Best fits: Rangers, Mariners, Rockies, Astros
SIGNED with Red Sox (1 year, $5.5 million)
37. Derek Holland, SP
Age: 30 | B-T: B/L
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 0.8
Holland has not been able to come back from injuries to return to his 2011-13 form when he won 38 games with an overall ERA under 4.00. The past two years, in 30 starts and 32 appearances, his ERA is 4.94. He'll need to sign a one-year deal and try to recapture his past. A change of leagues and scenery would certainly help him, and the Marlins would be a perfect fit for him.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Best fits: Marlins, Pirates, Twins, Angels, Rangers, Orioles, Rockies, Reds, Brewers
SIGNED with White Sox (1 year, $7 million)
38. Colby Rasmus, LF
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 5
2016 WAR: 2.2
This won't be an easy offseason for Rasmus, who's going to take one of the biggest pay cuts in baseball despite hitting 15 home runs. His .206/.286/.355 slash line tells most of the story here. He can play all three outfield positions, and that will help his cause.
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Best fits: Royals, Giants, Athletics, Brewers, Phillies
SIGNED with Rays (1 year, $5 million)
39. Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
Years in league: 9
2016 WAR: 2.6
Valbuena can hit a fastball and had one of his best overall seasons with a career high .357 on-base percentage with 17 doubles, 13 home runs and 40 RBIs in just 90 games.
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (AAV: $7M)
Best fits: Astros, Angels, Mets, Indians
SIGNED with Angels (2 years, $15 million)
40. Joaquin Benoit, RP
Age: 39 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 15
2016 WAR: 1.0
Benoit rejuvenated his career after being traded from the Mariners to the Blue Jays by dominating the eighth inning with a 0.38 ERA in 25 appearances with Toronto.
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Best fits: Blue Jays, Giants, Pirates, Athletics
SIGNED with Phillies (1 year, $7.5 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
41. Steve Pearce, 1B/OF
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 10
2016 WAR: 2.3
Pearce can play first base, right field, left field and DH and platoon against LHP. He has 15-20 home run power if he's matched up properly.
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Best fits: Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, Indians, Athletics
SIGNED with Blue Jays (2 years, $12.5 million)
42. Fernando Rodney, RP
Age: 39 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 14
2016 WAR: 0.9
Between the Padres and Marlins, Rodney converted 25 of 28 save opportunities. However, he didn't pitch well for the Marlins after they acquired him from the Padres, as shown by his 5.89 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. That second half will hurt his value enough that we might not be seeing the bow and arrow much more from him in the future.
Projected contract: 1 year, $7 million
Best fits: Padres
SIGNED with Diamondbacks (1 year, $2.75 million)
43. Jorge De La Rosa, SP
Age: 35 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 13
2016 WAR: 0.0
De La Rosa has been one of the most successful pitchers at Coors Field over the years, going 86-61 with a 4.35 ERA in nine years with the Rockies. Now at age 35, he needs to get out of the hitters' park and go to a more pitching-friendly atmosphere, or this might be his last year in baseball.
Projected contract: 1 year, $7 million
Best fits: Rockies, Astros, Marlins, Pirates, Angels, Padres
SIGNED with Diamondbacks (minor-league deal with spring training non-roster invitation)
44. Koji Uehara, RP
Age: 41 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 0.8
Uehara was dominant against left-handed hitters last year with a .139 batting average against. He also pitched much better away from Fenway Park, where he had a 2.19 ERA, as opposed to a 4.84 ERA at Fenway.
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Best fits: Marlins, Pirates, Angels, Giants, Athletics
SIGNED with Cubs (1 year, $6 million)
45. Neftali Feliz, RP
Age: 28 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 1.0
Feliz found a home with the Pirates and, after making several small adjustments, went on to post a 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 62 appearances. He punched out an impressive 61 hitters in 53 1/3 innings pitched.
Projected contract: 2 years, $12 million (AAV: $6M)
Best fits: Pirates, Angels, Brewers, Reds, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves
SIGNED with Brewers (1 year, $5.35 million)
46. Brett Cecil, RP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/L
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: 0.3
The industry has a major shortage of left-handed relievers, which means Cecil will have an interesting bidding war for his services. His sub-3.00 ERA from 2013-15 will not be forgotten by teams, as they'll choose to overlook his 3.93 ERA from this past year.
Projected contract: 3 years, $18 million (AAV: $6M)
Best fits: Blue Jays, Mariners, Nationals, Angels, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Athletics
SIGNED with Cardinals (4 years, $30.5 million)
47. Brett Anderson, SP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 8
2016 WAR: -0.8
Anderson accepted the qualifying offer from a year ago, which means he'll take one of the biggest pay cuts of 2017 after an injury-plagued 2016. If he's healthy, he'll get a low base with incentives.
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Best fits: Dodgers, Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Braves, Athletics, Twins, Diamondbacks
SIGNED with Cubs (1 year, $3.5 million)
48. Austin Jackson, CF
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: -0.1
Jackson can still play center field and is still young enough to bounce back and be a productive player. He's best suited now as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Best fits: White Sox, Athletics, Giants, Padres, Brewers
SIGNED with the Indians (minor-league contract with spring training non-roster invitation)
49. Jon Jay, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 1.1
Jay is still a solid fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and fill in when a starter goes down for a couple of weeks. He has a lifetime slash line of .287/.352/.384.
Projected contract: 2 years, $12 million (AAV: $6M)
Best fits: Angels, Padres, Brewers, Phillies, Athletics, Cubs
SIGNED with Chicago Cubs (1 year, $8 million
50. Desmond Jennings, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in league: 7
2016 WAR: 0.9
What in the world has happened to Jennings? He had four straight years (2011-14) of double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and now he’s nothing more than a fifth outfielder who never reached his potential. Perhaps a new team, a new environment and different voices can bring him back to being a useful fourth outfielder.
Projected contract: 1 year, $2 million
Best fits: Giants, Rangers, Rockies, Rays, Athletics
SIGNED by Reds (minor-league contract with a spring training non-roster invitation)