In my very preliminary draft rankings, I noted that there is no debate over the top prospect for the 2015 NHL draft: It's Erie Otters center Connor McDavid. The debate for me is how much of a gap there is between him and the next best prospect, Jack Eichel.
With Connor's draft season about to get underway, there may be some folks out there who aren’t familiar with the player who many scouts believe will be the face of the franchise that drafts him next June.
Here’s an overview and introduction to one of four players ever given "exceptional status" by the OHL.
What is the “exceptional player” tag and to whom is it given?
A Canadian player tagged with "exceptional status" by Hockey Canada is permitted to start playing in the CHL at 15 years of age, as opposed to the usual 16. The only four candidates to get this title have been from Ontario: John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad, Sean Day and Connor McDavid.
Not all exceptional status players are created equal. There were certainly some questions within the scouting industry when defensemen Ekblad and Day got those titles, citing elite physical abilities but not the same level of hockey skills as Tavares and McDavid. Ekblad, of course, ended up being the top defenseman in the OHL at 17, and was picked first overall in the most recent NHL draft; he followed in the footsteps of Tavares, who went first overall in his NHL draft year.
Scott Salmons, vice president of hockey operations for Hockey Canada, described the deliberations of determining exceptional status as a "detailed process that involves a confidential committee evaluating the player based on ability on the ice (talent and physical readiness) but also a maturity component."
It's relevant to split up those two major portions (on- and off-ice readiness).
On-ice evaluation from scouts, executives
McDavid has been earning praise consistently from executives and scouts employed at both the NHL and junior level. Here are thoughts from a handful of folks around the game:
One NHL team head scout said of McDavid, "You watch him skating up the ice and you think 'Well, that's not special' and then all of a sudden he's past both defensemen on the way to the net, and you're yelling 'How the hell did he do that?!'"
Meanwhile, an OHL general manager said, "In the last 20 years, I've only seen three players coming up into junior who 'wowed' me by looking different: Sidney Crosby, John Tavares and Connor McDavid."
"He's the best player I've ever seen as a minor midget," another OHL GM added.
“His speed and first three strides are world-class,” Salmons noted. “[Because of his] vision for the game, he's opportunistic, can't characterize him as playmaker or scorer; he's exceptional as both.”
"First time I saw him, he took me out of my seat,” Erie GM Sherry Bassin said. “He has incredible quickness, speed, ability with the puck at full speed, unselfishness and he has the rare two-second advantage that he sees the play before it happens. There are so many special characteristics about him. He's a generational player."
My scouting report
At the recent evaluation camp held in Montreal for Canada’s World Junior Championship team, McDavid squared off against some of the world's best 18- and 19-year-old players. The 17-year-old McDavid was clearly the fastest player, the most skilled puck handler, the smartest player and one of the most hardworking players. In fact, you can hang "elite" or "generational" grades on most of the major categories used in scouting evaluations with Connor. To put that in context, I probably gave out around 10 or fewer "elite" grades on any particular skill in the entire previous draft class.
McDavid's ability to change gears at the blink of an eye along with his plus-plus speed always has defenders on their heels. He may not always turn the corner and get to the goalie cleanly, but on rushes he almost always gets to the corner on a carry-in, gets behind the net or drives the net from a good angle. He also has great off-puck skating skills, as he's always buzzing around the ice pressuring opponents. His speed surprises many defensemen who don't correctly anticipate how much time they have with the puck, leading to turnovers.
McDavid is a coordinated puck handler who can make all the tough in-tight plays as well as the quick maneuvers both from a standstill and when he's skating at full speed. In general, hand-eye coordination and puck skills are only as important as the creative mind and hockey brain that control the hands, and McDavid rates off the chart in those areas. The reason why he seems to generate chances on a whim rather than with his skating is that he knows the angles to take and the plays that need to be made to make a defender miss and/or get the puck to an open teammate -- all of which he can do with incredible reaction speed -- that will lead to a high-quality shot. Chances are created in hockey through chaos, meaning one player loses his man, the defense starts to scramble or an odd-man rush occurs. When McDavid has the puck, chaos ensues.
He's not the biggest or bulkiest guy (6 feet, 185 pounds) at the moment, which is more than understandable given his age. While scouts are typically worried about a young player without a plus frame adjusting to the NHL, that is not as much of an issue for special players like McDavid.
The IIHF under-18 tournament in the spring of 2013 was McDavid's coming-out party as a prospect of the highest level, even though some OHL scouts may disagree. He scored eight goals (14 points total) in seven games, leading Canada to a gold medal and earning MVP honors. He was 16 years old at the time, playing against a vast majority of older players.
To put his performance in perspective, the next-best 16-year-old performance ever in that tournament was by Jakub Vrana (Washington’s first-round pick in 2014), who notched six points in 2012. The next-best Canadian was John Tavares, with five points. Adding 17-year-old Canadians to the list, McDavid still outperformed Steven Stamkos (10 points) and Taylor Hall (nine points) when they were a year older than him at the event. The small-sample-size warning applies, but his performance was so out of the ordinary -- which is what you expect from an extraordinary prospect.
"Scouts everywhere in that rink said they've never seen a performance like that at that age," said Salmons. "It was a special [performance]."
As a prospect, Connor isn't at the same level as Sidney Crosby was at the same age, but he's not too far away.
Off-the-ice evaluation
McDavid is universally known for being a low-ego player, and the kind of person who goes out of his way to be nice to fans and sign autographs.
If you want to call it a downside to his makeup, the recipient of the OHL's Most Sportsmanlike Player award can have almost unrealistic expectations of himself. Bassin recalled a regular-season game in which McDavid had a couple of great chances to score, but Erie lost the game. After the game, he went to Bassin quietly in a private setting and sincerely apologized for letting the team down. McDavid believed that he should have scored on those chances, an example of his inner expectations.
"He has a very mature, professional approach to the game," echoed Salmons. "He's very serious for a person that young."
Maturity is often the term most used with McDavid, with some believing he has the mental makeup of a player in his mid-20s.
"He loves the game," said Bassin. "He'll be out shooting the puck after coming back from a two- to three-hour workout. I've known a lot of players with ability who I wish had more character and a lot of players with character who I wish had ability. He has both. He's so special."
McDavid was also the CHL Scholastic Player of the Year in 2013-14, with a 92 percent average in school while taking courses like advanced math.
It's a question most talent evaluators don't really need to ask, but one I had to ask Bassin just to see his response: What are the chances of Connor McDavid playing in the OHL in 2015-16?
"There's a better chance of a snowfall on the equator," he said.