Barnegat, New Jersey, High School lefty Jason Groome is the top pitching prospect in this draft class, prep or college, and that's not just due to the tragicomic rate of attrition of arms this year. Groome made a short start Tuesday in unseasonably cold weather in front of a large crowd of scouts, and he more than lived up to the expectations he set for himself last summer.
Groome wasn't throwing at full effort while working in 45-degree weather in his second real outing of the year and on a 60-pitch limit, working 89-93 mph, with one 94 in the first inning and an 88 or two in his last inning. The curveball was the standout pitch, however, easily plus, a 65 or 70 grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) if you're a generous grader (and I am when the curveball looks like this). He also threw two changeups that were both at worst solid-average, with some downward fade on the harder one at 82 mph. At whatever effort level Groome was throwing on Tuesday, his delivery looked great, as he stays over the rubber a long time, takes a long step-over stride, and gets some extension over his front side. He threw strikes all day, and his command of the curveball was especially impressive and further along than his command of the fastball.
He's going to be in the mix for every team from the first pick on down -- Phillies GM Matt Klentak was there, as were at least six other scouting directors, including the teams drafting 2 (Reds) and 3 (Atlanta) -- but will have to face industry bias against high-school pitchers at the top of the draft as well as the desire for the higher floors of college bats like Louisville's Corey Ray. As long as Groome shows that the mid-90s velocity he's displayed in the past is still in there, he'll go among the top five picks, and possibly first overall.
More draft scouting notes from colleague Eric Longenhagen and myself
• Plum High School (Pittsburgh) first baseman/pitcher Alex Kirilloff played a few games in St. Petersburg last week, showing off some of his raw power and sitting in the upper 80s on the mound in his last game on Friday. Kirilloff is a potential first-rounder as a bat, having won the home run derby at last summer's Perfect Game All-American Classic, showing strong hands and a simple path to the ball from his load. Given his arm strength, I'd run him out to right field in pro ball and let him play his way off it rather than sending him out as a first baseman.
• Lake Minneola (Florida) High School shortstop Drew Mendoza has been attracting some attention as a possible Day 1 pick, perhaps as high as the late first round, but I didn't see any of that potential Thursday night in a home game at his school near Winter Garden. Mendoza has raw power but has huge contact issues when facing live pitching; he swung and missed at least five times in the game I saw, striking out twice, with a very long swing that has his hips going one way and the bat going the other. He has good hands at shortstop and a plus arm but doesn't look like he has the energy you'd expect to see at that position.
• Windermere (Florida) Prep right-hander Austin Bergner threw just three innings in a start at the IMG complex in Bradenton, Florida, on Wednesday morning, working from 89-93 with an ultra-short arm action that would not last in a rotation role. He threw a curveball at 73-77 that had good spin when he finished it, but he popped every other one he tried to throw.
The next two reports are from Eric Longenhagen.
• Santa Barbara (California) High School righty Kevin Gowdy started a tournament game in Arizona on Monday and did not show as well as many in attendance had hoped. Gowdy was 86-91 (mostly 88-90) on a cold, blustery evening with a mostly average slider that flashed above that, though with some 30 and 40 grades mixed in as well. At his best, Gowdy will flash a plus slider, show some changeup feel, command a 90-92 mph fastball in and out and feature more downhill plane than is typical for a pitcher with his kind of drop-and-drive delivery. He was up to 94 at Perfect Game National and even showed a nasty 88-90 two-seamer that ran away from lefties. At the PG All-American Classic in San Diego, Gowdy looked closer to the way he did Monday, topping out in the low 90s with a 45- or 50-grade slider.
On paper, Gowdy is a projectable 6-foot-4 and 175 pounds. I do think there's more physicality on the way, though I don't think his frame has quite as much projection as those measurables indicate on their own. There are some aspects of his delivery that are less than ideal -- there's some head violence, and sometimes Gowdy's front side opens up a little hard, in an Ubaldo Jimenez sort of way -- but these are a little nitpicky. He still manages to command his fastball well for a high-school pitcher and throws strikes with his slider, and I'm not a proponent of proactively monkeying with deliveries that work just fine right now.
I think it's important to consider the context surrounding Gowdy's start, namely that he and his team are on a long trip away from home and that Monday wasn't a great night for baseball. Of course, when we're lining up our draft board here at ESPN, it's going to be hard to ignore the fact that Gowdy's velocity and the overall quality of his stuff has waxed and waned in the appearances I've seen. I believe in the future of the slider -- I feel it'll be a plus pitch at maturity -- and the command, but I think the fastball and changeup end up right around average, with their ceilings maybe a half-grade above that. That's still a back-end starter's profile and worthy of sandwich-round consideration in most drafts, and probably higher in this one. I think there's an argument that Gowdy's body and his fastball have more projection than I’m calling for, and there are almost certainly scouts and teams that feel that way. For those teams, he could be considered a first-rounder.
• University of San Diego shortstop Bryson Brigman, a draft-eligible sophomore who was the WCC freshman of the year in 2015 and played on the Team USA collegiate national team over the summer, spent last year relegated to second base in deference to Yankees first-rounder Kyle Holder. Brigman and the Toreros stopped by Arizona State for a midweek game a few weeks ago and was very impressive in a limited look. While he doesn't appear to have the arm for shortstop, the footwork, actions, range and arm are fine for second base, though I'd be inclined to try Brigman in center field as well. I think he runs well enough.
Brigman hits everything. He tracks the ball well and has a quick, simple stroke that allows him to spray hard contact to all fields. I have a future 60 grade on the bat. I don't think there's more than below-average game power here, which is why I think a try in center is more prudent than leaving him at second base, but I believe in Brigman's bat and ability to settle into an up-the-middle position enough to consider him a late-first round talent. He plays hard and has absolutely wrecked pitches in every part of the hitting zone under my watch.