Oklahoma right-hander Alec Hansen came into the season as a candidate for the top overall pick after spending his sophomore year pumping in an upper-90s fastball, a consistently plus slider and showing some feel for a changeup. He's a massive 6-foot-7, 235-pound leviathan whose arms are so long he can practically scratch his knees without bending at the waist. Pitchers built like that tend to take a while to harness their command and Hansen had been no different through his sophomore campaign. He went into last offseason needing to show scouts some signs that he could throw strikes where he wanted and that would probably be enough to have him in the conversation for the top overall pick.
Things began to go awry. Hansen sat out Oklahoma's fall season with forearm soreness. He dealt with a similarly described issue toward the end of his senior year of high school and has a screw in his elbow because of it. His opening start this season was a one-inning, four-walk disaster while his underwhelming second start -- three innings, three hits, three walks allowed -- had to be pushed back a day.
On Saturday, Hansen bounced back as well as one could have hoped, striking out 11 and walking just one over 6⅓ innings of work against a UCLA Bruins team loaded with mature, high-contact hitters. Hansen's fastball sat 94-98 mph early in the start, backed down into the low 90s late (understandable given that he had thrown only four innings prior to the start this season) and featured inconsistent movement. It's a plus-plus pitch, especially when it's moving, and Hansen located it down in the zone and to both sides of the plate with regularity. If I were to ignore Hansen's history of wildness and just view this start in a vacuum, I'd be comfortable projecting above average command.
I do think Hansen's delivery is about as simple as it gets for someone his size. He has some drop and drive to him -- which I'm fine with from a 6-7 pitcher as he still generates plenty of downward plane -- and cuts off his front side a bit but generally moves his significant mass directly toward the plate. Saturday's start gave me some confidence that Hansen could one day pitch with acceptable major league starter command with his current delivery and get there consistently simply through reps.
The release and overall quality of Hansen's slider was inconsistent. Hansen sometimes failed to get over his front side and snap the ball down, resulting in some ineffective, one-plane Frisbee sliders. When Hansen did break off the slider correctly, the pitch was a vicious, plus offering in the 84-88 mph range. He worked the pitch in to lefties effectively, allowing him to pitch through the lineup several times while breaking out his changeup only once: a below average, 87-mph cambio.
The best sequence of the day, the kind scouting directors remember in their mind's eye right before they pull the trigger on a guy on draft day, came late in Hansen's start against a left-handed hitter. It went like this: Plus back-foot slider for a swinging strike one, 96 on the corner away for strike two, 97 with arm side run just off the plate away, a well-located fastball in on the hands and finally another plus slider down and in for a swinging strike three.
So what we have in Hansen right now is a massive body with a 70-grade fastball, 60 (at least) slider projection, the chance for an average changeup and average command. It's the same profile Hansen had last year, though the industry is more concerned about injury now than it was then, and his stock has objectively fallen a bit since the winter because of that and the start he's had to his season. It was, however, nice to see that the raw materials that had him near the top of our offseason draft rankings are still there. If Hansen can stay healthy, throw strikes like he did on Saturday and show enough changeup that evaluators consider it projectable, he'll probably be off the board in the first few picks.
I think he has No. 2 starter upside.
Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse is a two-way player -- low 90s, below-average slider and change in relief -- with above average raw power and a plus arm. Neuse is extremely patient, recognizes pitch type and location early and works deep counts. He had several impressive at-bats during the weekend and hit a 92-mph fastball out of Dodger Stadium on Sunday. A lack of barrel control suppresses Neuse's ability to hit and it's imperative that he continues working counts into his favor in pro ball so he will see more pitches in what, for him, are hittable parts of the strike zone. His defensive footwork, rough hands, lack of range and slow transfer give him no shot of playing shortstop in pro ball.
I think there's a chance Neuse moves out of the infield entirely, but it makes sense for the team that drafts him to give him a look at third base (where his arm won't be wasted) or even second to try to maximize value. I like the power/approach combo enough to put a second-round grade on Neuse while acknowledging there's a chance he may have a only 40 hit tool at maturity, which won't play if he has to move to the outfield. I'm betting on Neuse staying at third and parlaying his approach into above average OBPs while hitting 20 home runs per year with what I project to be plus raw power.
Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Hudson started Friday night against a UCLA lineup full on high-contact left handed hitters and managed to strike out six over seven innings. Hudson's fastball sat in the 92-94 mph range, touched 96, and held velocity throughout his entire 105-pitch outing. When Hudson works down in the zone with the fastball and creates a good amount of downhill plane, it's effective. But because it lacks consistent horizontal movement, it plays at a grade below what its raw velocity would indicate and is an average pitch as far as I'm concerned.
The headline pitch for Hudson is his 88-91 mph cutter, which was consistently average, flashed plus and was located with dictatorial control for Hudson's entire outing. It was especially useful against lefties who were frequently tied up by cutters inside or otherwise watching helplessly as what looked like a fastball that broke late onto the outside corner for a called strike.
That Hudson has a well-manicured weapon with which to attack lefties is important, because his changeup is miles behind the rest of his repertoire. Sitting in the low 80s with just a bit of movement and noticeable arm deceleration, it's currently a 40 on the 20-80 scale for me. Hudson doesn't has neither the athleticism nor the delivery that allows for a lot of changeup projection, and I think the pitch's ultimate role will be that of a fringy, quaternary change-of-pace used to ambush hitters into weak contact.
Hudson's slider -- an upper-70s offering with two-plane movement -- projects to solid average, perhaps a tick above if he can learn to use it with the same maturity and consistent location as the cutter.
The total package here is that of a fifth starter, though if Hudson can somehow alter his grip in such a way that he adds movement to his fastball, he'll have a plus heater and a higher ceiling.
UCLA sophomore Griffin Canning opposed Hudson on Friday night and pitched 8⅔ scoreless innings before running into trouble and surrendering a run in the ninth. Canning worked up in the zone with his fastball and induced an alarming number of swings and misses with fastballs in the 87- to 91-mph range. The pitch has late movement and Canning is very deceptive, but in my opinion this pitch will only work in short bursts in pro ball as it relies heavily on deception and started getting whacked by Mississippi State hitters the third time through the lineup.
Canning's slider is above average right now and projects to plus. UCLA has a Trackman camera at Jackie Robinson Stadium and Canning's slider was spinning at just more than 2,300 RPMs, which is well above the MLB average. His changeup and curveball are both below average, with the former having some potential because of Canning's arm speed.
I think when Canning is draft eligible next year, scouts will at least be split on whether he's capable of starting in pro ball, and I am not optimistic, though he's a very interesting prospect.
Other than SoCal prep outfielder Mickey Moniak, UCLA first baseman Luke Persico has the best bat control and feel to hit of any 2016 draft prospect I've seen thus far. Persico gets to absolutely everything down and in and somehow accomplishes this despite having rather long levers. I have a future 60 on his bat. It's hard to decipher whether or not Persico is projectable, as he's thick in the torso and thighs already but thin in the forearms/wrists and calves/ankles. If he does fill out and add some power (which is below average right now), it'll help his chances of profiling at first base. Persico played third as a sophomore and would likely get a look there in pro ball initially. He has the arm for it.
UCLA DH Eric Filia sat out last season due to academic issues and missed 2014 with an injury for which he was granted a medical redshirt. He squared up Alec Hansen multiple times on Saturday and has high-effort, above-average pull power, but has no clear position. There's some noise to his swing, but he had the bat speed and hand-eye to connect with Hansen's mid-90s fastball several times and, based on just a weekend's look, I'm inclined to think he'll be able to make it work in pro ball. He shares some similarities with the Dodgers' 2015 fourth-round pick Willie Calhoun, who was also physically mature and positionless, but has some freakish offensive skill.