We have briefed you on our forensic methods, and we have whetted your appetite for the blood of Goliaths. Now it's time to break out the spreadsheets and see which teams actually rate as the likeliest Davids in this year's NCAA field.
Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, rated on a scale from 0 to 100 by our 2012 statistical model. These are the highest scores among all eligible teams, whether they are already in the NCAA tournament, working their way through conference championships or awaiting word about their bids. We will get to actual head-to-head odds once we know tournament seedings. Also, this is a lot more detail than we're going to go into for Giants. You probably know a thing or seven about Syracuse and Kentucky already. This is your chance to keep diving into what could make less famous teams Killer material -- and to figure out which schools to root for in the week leading up to Selection Sunday.
Saint Louis Billikens (38.4): The Billikens stand astride the widest fault line in college hoops analytics today. Many bracektologists, reflecting the thinking of the NCAA and mainstream media types, just can't see a second-place team in a mid-major conference as elite, and have Saint Louis pegged as something like a 9- or 10-seed, while advanced metrics view Rick Majerus' squad as one of the best teams in the country. (The BPI ranks SLU 12th in the nation.) That mismatch would offer a worthwhile value play even if Saint Louis weren't built like a Killer, but it is. The Billikens are extraordinarily efficient on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 44.2 percent. They shoot 37.1 percent on 3-pointers, and they turn the ball over on just 17.9 percent of possessions. Crawl, keep the ball, let the bombs fall: That's a tasty recipe for baking upsets.
Their path forward: The Billikens are seeded second (behind Temple) in this week's Atlantic 10 tournament, with a bye in the first round. A win probably makes them an NCAA lock. A win or two plus a loss probably keeps them seeded low enough to be a potential Killer.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams (37.7): The Shaka Smart Experience lost three senior starters from the squad that went to the Final Four in 2011 but hasn't missed a beat in about two months. (VCU's only defeat since Jan. 8 was a one-point road loss to George Mason on Valentine's Day.) Amping up a defense that proved last season it could mix and match assignments by specific opponents and sparked by freshman Briante Weber, the Rams now lead the country in steals (16.2 percent of opponent possessions) and generating turnovers (27.3 percent), and are limiting opponents to shooting just 31.4 percent on 3-point attempts. VCU isn't shooting as well as it did last season (effective field goal percentage of just 47.6 percent, 234th in the NCAA), but with its avoidance of turnovers (only 17.6 percent of possessions) and a newfound commitment to offensive rebounding (34.4 percent of misses), it makes possessions count, generating 106.2 points per 100 possessions (81st in the country).
Their path forward: Maybe it's just us, but when it comes to bubble cases, why wouldn't you want to favor mid-majors with coaches such as Smart who have demonstrated Cinderella performance, not to mention incredibly dynamic but little-known players such as Weber? South Florida is ranked nine spots below the Rams in the BPI (65th versus 56th). Do we really need to see the Bulls, who rank 302nd in the country in turnover percentage and who, despite their height, couldn't stop my mother from blocking their shots, instead of the Rams? Unfortunately, wide swaths of the basketball-loving population do not consider this a rhetorical question. Which makes Monday night's Colonial tournament final between VCU and Drexel the most important game of the week for Giant Killers. The Dragons might make the Big Dance no matter what happens, but the Rams probably need a win to "steal" a bid.
Belmont Bruins (37.5): The Bruins are an offensive machine. They protect the ball, shoot effectively from anywhere and collect offensive rebounds, generating 116.4 points per 100 possessions -- an offensive efficiency that ranks ninth in the country. And what's especially impressive for their Giant Killing potential is that while Belmont is effective inside (shooting a lights-out 54.7 percent on 2-pointers), it relies heavily on 3s (32.5 percent of points, ranking 60th, versus 46.9 percent of points from 2-point FGs, ranking 295th). That means the Bruins can score in buckets and can't be easily shut down by the kind of interior defense that Giants often use to smother potential Killers. And don't take the Bruins lightly because of their conference. Atlantic Sun teams played about as well as the Ivy or Horizon leagues this season, and even though our model sees strength of schedule as highly significant, it loves the Bruins.
Their path forward: As Atlantic Sun champions, they're in. Now all Belmont needs is a nice, vulnerable Giant to oppose in the opening round.
New Mexico Lobos (36.5): The Lobos' defense exhausts opponents, clamping down on the perimeter (opponents are shooting just 30.6 percent on 3s ...) while choking off inside shots (... and just 42.7 percent on 2s). Meanwhile, New Mexico is highly dangerous from outside (38.6 percent on 3-point attempts, 25th in the NCAA) but still crashes the boards (offensive rebounds on 34.9 percent of misses, ranking 72nd). That's a profile for a Killer as complete as Anton Chigurh.
Their path forward: New Mexico is seeded second in this week's MWC tournament; the results will determine whether its NCAA seeding will be low enough for the Lobos to count as a potential Killer at the Big Dance.
Marshall Thundering Herd (34.5): Rebounding is the Herd's thundering strength -- they grab the ball on 41.1 percent of their missed shots (fourth in the NCAA) and limit opponents to 29.5 percent on the defensive end (64th). They are terrible from the foul line (just 60.8 percent) and have been inconsistent all season, but those traits don't hurt underdogs at this time of year.
Their path forward: Their case is better than most people realize (67th in the BPI), but nobody is talking about Marshall. To get to the Big Dance, Marshall almost certainly has to win the Conference USA tournament this week, in which it's seeded sixth.
Wichita State Shockers (32.9): This one's easy: The Shockers rank seventh in the NCAA in offensive efficiency (116.9 points per 100 possessions) and 18th in defensive efficiency (90.3 per 100). In fact, the numbers say Wichita State is one of the 10 best teams in the country (BPI: 83.8, ranking ninth), even after a Missouri Valley Conference tournament loss to Illinois State (told you the Redbirds were upset material!).
Their path forward: Their regular season is over, and they will get an at-large bid, but probably one too high to qualify as a potential Killer in 2012.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (30.2): A good team on the merits (44th in the BPI), but even better as a potential Killer. Lacking height along their front line, the Golden Eagles don't shoot well from inside (just 43.4 percent on 2-point attempts, ranking 313rd in the country) -- but that's one skill Killers can lack. Southern Miss maximizes the value of its possessions by rarely turning the ball over (just 16.9 percent of possessions, 17th best in the country), shooting from long range (36 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 84th) and hitting the boards (offensive rebounds on 36 percent of misses, ranking 44th). Same story, although in lowercase, at the other end of the court: Opponents shoot well against Southern Miss, but because of turnovers and rebounds, the Golden Eagles are above average in defensive efficiency. That's the kind of smart play successful Killers have employed in the past.
Their path forward: The Golden Eagles are seeded second in this week's Conference USA tournament, with a first-round bye. They will get an NCAA bid -- but could be cast as a potential Killer from the get-go, or as an 8- or 9-seed that could be forced to beat a good team just to meet a 1- or 2-seed in the third round.
Old Dominion Monarchs (28.2): As always under Blaine Taylor, they're monstrous on the offensive glass, grabbing rebounds on 39.2 percent of missed shots. Those extra possessions are enough to turn a team that just can't shoot (45.3 percent effective field goal percentage, ranking 304th in the country) into an offense that's just about average overall (100.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking 174th). And in the meantime, the Monarchs generate steals (13.2 percent of opponent possessions, seventh best in the country), turnovers (23 percent, ranking 42nd) and missed shots (opponents are shooting just 44.6 percent from inside and 31.9 percent on 3s).
Their path forward: At its best against an overmatched Delaware team in the opening round of the Colonial tournament, ODU was at its worst when it couldn't buy a basket against Drexel in the second round Sunday and got wiped out of NCAA contention. But wherever the Monarchs land, it will be fun to watch them whomp postseason opponents who are unprepared for their distinctive style of play. Don't tell us you don't remember the 2009 CollegeInsider.com Tournament.
Cleveland State Vikings (27.4): This is a huge risk/huge reward team, almost as though the Vikings were built not to be great, but to be a great Giant Killer. They flaunt effective 3-point shooting (36.6 percent) and offensive rebounding (35 percent of missed shots). They feature impressive defense -- especially on the perimeter, where opponents are shooting just 31.4 percent (ranking 51st in the country) -- thanks largely to massive turnovers (25.7 percent of opponent possessions, ranking fourth) and grand-larceny-level theft (steal percentage of 13.1, ranking eighth). They're utterly unreliant on free throws (27.7 percent of points, ranking 336th in the NCAA) and uncaring about sending opponents to the line (49.9 percent of points on free throws, ranking 337th). The Vikings also are sloppy with the ball, poor on the defensive glass and inconsistent enough to lose five games in a row in February -- that's the huge risk part.
The V isn't the only thing "Vikings" and "variance" have in common.
Their path forward: Live dangerously, and sometimes you die early. Cleveland State lost an awful game to Detroit in the Horizon League semifinal Saturday night, wrecking any chance to show the world the mad Killer skills it displayed in 2009 -- and ruining D'Aundray Brown's opportunity to make the 2012 All-GK team. Now Detroit or Valparaiso will get the Horizon bid. Zzzzzzzz.
Richmond Spiders (26.4): You can see the Spiders working off the same script that made them a huge Giant Killing success story in 2011. They still shoot and defend well on the perimeter and protect the ball, and while they don't rebound well, they didn't last season, either -- that's a function of Chris Mooney's players sticking to their spots rather than crashing the boards. Unfortunately, keyed by the departure of All-GK Honorable Mention Justin Harper, Richmond lost nearly 3.5 inches of effective height this season, and its interior defense has really suffered. Opponents are shooting nearly 48 percent and scoring nearly 60 percent of their points from inside.
Their path forward: Absurdly tough, it begins Tuesday night with Richmond (which is seeded 10th in the Atlantic 10 tournament) facing La Salle (seeded seventh). But don't discount the Spiders' chances to damage other at-large contenders in the A-10 -- they are still a high-risk/high-reward team.