IN ADVANCE OF THE NCAA TOURNEY EACH SEASON, The Mag begins mining stats to target the next top-rank-tarnishing Giant Killer -- a team that beats a Big Dance opponent seeded at least five
spots higher. (Schools from the BCS conferences -- plus Gonzaga, Butler, BYU, Memphis, UNLV, Temple and Xavier, because of current or historical success -- cannot be GKs.) In the past eight years, we've seen underdogs emerge in many forms, but none quite like last season's VCU Rams, who added a dimension to our theory that high-risk, high-reward strategies pay off. While most teams rely on one or two signature moves, VCU shifted from one GK tactic to another, depending on the opponent, on its way to the Final Four. While it's too early to
officially brand this season's would-be Killers, we can use VCU's run last year as a field guide to start scouting Cinderella. She's lurking out there somewhere.
FIRST ROUND
VCU (11) 59, USC (11) 46
GK STRATEGY: Offensive rebounding
THE RESULT: Although this game doesn't meet GK criteria (no five-seed differential), it still provides a glimpse of the Rams' chameleonlike ability to adapt to different tourney foes. Coach Shaka Smart harped on rebounding before the First Four because of USC's size (6-foot-10 Nikola Vucevic and 6-10 Alex Stepheson), and not only did VCU hold the Trojans to five offensive rebounds, the Rams grabbed 15 of their own misses. Those extra possessions played a big role in offsetting a cold shooting night (33.9 percent). "We had five guys on
defense and four on offense who were going after the ball on the glass," Smart says.
THE THEORY: Plenty of teams are afraid to send three or four guys after offensive boards, particularly when they lack size, because they fear the fast break. But teams that have the best chance of pulling off an upset eschew conservative thinking. To keep opponents guessing, few methods can be as deadly as offensive rebounding. Those boards lead to second chances as well as highly efficient threes off
of kick-outs.
THE ENCORE: Stony Brook might not have much size, but it hits the glass as hard as anyone. Through mid-February, the Seawolves were grabbing 39.1 percent of offensive boards (13th in the nation) -- F
Dallis Joyner had almost three offensive rpg in just 25.2 mpg -- and were holding foes to only 27.9 caroms at the other end (34th).
THE OTHERS: Lamar, New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Robert Morris, Saint Mary's
SECOND ROUND
VCU (11) 74, Georgetown (6) 56
GK STRATEGY: Pressure D
THE THEORY: In addition to the obvious statistical advantages of forcing turnovers (more possessions, more fast-break points), there's a psychological edge that pressure-oriented teams enjoy. In a tense environment, their style encourages them to play free and loose. So be on the lookout for teams that will come hard at anyone on D; that's often enough to knock out a foe that's just hoping to
survive.
THE ENCORE: Three years ago, Cleveland State shocked Wake Forest in the first round in part by forcing steals on 13.3 percent of its possessions. The Vikings have a similar look this year. Led by guard D'Aundray Brown (2.6 spg through mid-February), they ranked fourth in the nation in turnover percentage (26.7) and sixth in steal percentage (13.6).
THE OTHERS: Kent State, Ohio, Texas-Arlington, VCU, Wagner, Wyoming
THIRD ROUND
VCU (11) 94, Purdue (3) 76
GK STRATEGY: Take care of the ball
THE RESULT: Purdue was inoculated against the Rams' primary GK germs coming into the game, turning it over on just 15.8 percent of possessions (seventh in the country) and allowing just 27.9 of opponents' shots to come from behind the arc (32nd). Sure enough, the Rams didn't gain an advantage in either key area. What they did do was maximize their possessions. VCU let go of the ball only four times and, led by point guard Joey Rodriguez's
two-point range.
THE THEORY: Consider this the counterpoint to the Georgetown game. There are multiple ways to win the turnover battle, which is why slow, methodical GKs have fared as well as their up-and-down counterparts. But the key is to take incredible care of the ball, particularly if a team is going to rely on two-point shooting. That maximizes opportunities on the offensive end, and it points to success for squads with top playmakers who can control the tempo and find the right guys in the right spots.
THE ENCORE: Iona point guard Scott Machado makes Rodriguez look pedestrian. He led the country with 9.9 apg through mid-February, and his ability to penetrate and find teammates is a big reason the Gaels were shooting 54.7 percent from 2-point range (seventh overall).
THE OTHERS: South Dakota State, Southern Mississippi, Wichita State, Weber State
SWEET 16
VCU (11) 72, Florida State (10) 71 (OT)
GK STRATEGY: Bombs away
THE RESULT: "Florida State, of all the teams, was the one that worried us the most as coaches," Smart says of their March meeting (which doesn't technically qualify as a GK contest). The Seminoles were big, long and athletic, and they harassed VCU into 16 turnovers while destroying the Rams on the offensive glass 20-5. The only way for the Rams to make up for those 15 extra possessions? The 3 ball. Relying on a small lineup that placed swingman Bradford Burgess at power forward, the Rams hit 12 of 26 long balls, including 6 of 7 from Burgess.
THE THEORY: If there is one matchup advantage that mid-majors tend to enjoy, it's at the 4-spot. Most top teams use two bigs, while most mids have at least four shooters on the court. That leads to mismatches at both ends
arc is worth an extra point. That's the reason teams have a "shooter's chance" when they rely heavily on threes.
THE ENCORE: Creighton's biggest GK problem is that it's likely to be seeded too high to earn that designation. But should the Bluejays remain GK-eligible, NPOY candidate Doug McDermott is the kind of inside-outside threat that keeps power programs awake at night.
THE OTHERS: Belmont, Cal State Fullerton, Denver, Murray State, New Mexico
ELITE EIGHT
VCU (11) 71, Kansas (1) 61
GK STRATEGY: Guard the arc
THE RESULT: Kansas presented some of the same problems as Florida State. The Rams got crushed on the offensive glass again, and turnovers weren't a big factor. But VCU had a pick-your-poison decision to make on D: Collapse on the Morris twins inside or attempt to cut off the Jayhawks' bevy of bombers. VCU opted for the latter route, and thanks to their heavy pressure and aggressive close-outs, Kansas shot just 2-for-21 from downtown. Meanwhile, the Rams hit 12 of 25 from behind the arc and found themselves Final Four-bound.
THE THEORY: There are two ways to interpret the trite saying, "Live by the 3, die by the 3." In this scenario, death refers to a Killer wielding three-point D as a weapon. As is the case with turnovers and offensive rebounds, three-pointers are essentially worth extra possessions. Successful GKs tend to choke off opponents at the line, forcing them to finish inside (and to hope refs are calling the
game tight).
THE ENCORE: Guard Brandyn Curry and his Harvard crew are more reminiscent of coach Tommy Amaker's old Duke teams than a typical Ivy League squad. The Crimson excel at pressuring long-range shooters, allowing
THE OTHERS: Akron, Drexel, Mercer, Saint Louis, Middle Tennessee, Milwaukee, Norfolk State
Jordan Brenner is a contributing writer for ESPN The Magazine. Follow The Mag on Twitter, @ESPNmag, and like us on Facebook.