Here at GK Central, we've been issuing warnings for a while that this was shaping up to be a bad season for big upsets, and this weekend has confirmed our fears. Two more teams with solid Cinderella potential (Louisiana Tech and Georgia State) went down in their conference tournaments. The NCAA selection committee left out some of our statistical model's favorite squads (Southern Mississippi, Minnesota), bumped key "wounded assassins" into middle-bracket territory (Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh) and gave some Killers terrible matchups (Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas, Dayton vs. Ohio State).
Here's the cherry on top: Iowa and Tennessee, the two strongest Killers in the field of 68, will now face off in the first round. Result: As groups, the No. 16, No. 15, No. 14, No. 13 and No. 12 seeds in this year's brackets are all worse than average, according to our historical spreadsheets. Take that in the spirit of a financial adviser urging you to play it safe in an overvalued market.
We'll get to a full analysis of Giant vs. Killer matchups in the coming days, but for now, here's our instant reading of the top 10 potential upsets in the round of 64.
No. 6 Massachusetts Minutemen vs. No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes or Tennessee Volunteers
Upset odds for Iowa: 78.4 percent
Upset odds for Tennessee: 70.1 percent
Apparently, the selection committee misinterpreted a memo stating that UMass had been seeded sixth in its conference tournament and instead took it as a directive for how to slot the Midwest Region. Not only is our model's power rating skeptical of the Minutemen, calling them the 48th-best team in the nation, but it says Iowa (14th) and Tennessee (21st) are just as badly underseeded. In other words, even without factoring in the model's "Secret Sauce" or specific matchups, either the Hawkeyes or Volunteers should be favored.
No. 5 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 12 Xavier Musketeers or NC State Wolfpack
Upset odds for Xavier: 48.7 percent
Upset odds for North Carolina State: 26.6 percent
If NC State prevails, this matchup drops to sixth on the list of likeliest upsets, but it's still a dangerous game for Saint Louis. Our model has consistently warned us about Saint Louis over the past few weeks; with four losses in their past five games, the Billikens are showing why that's been the case. Xavier, with strong rebounding at both ends and a plodding pace, brings extra GK firepower.
No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 12 Harvard Crimson
Upset odds: 36.2 percent
Another underseeded squad, Harvard is pegged by our model as the 33rd-best team in the country, far better than the 12-seed the Crimson earned. And Cincy is just 25th. The Crimson force turnovers and play slowly, which enhances their profile. If only the 39 percent 3-point shooters would fire more from downtown, this would be even more tempting as a 12-5 upset.
No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels vs.
No. 11 Providence Friars
Upset odds: 34.9 percent
We've been singing Providence's praises as a "wounded assassin" for a while, noting that its GK traits were strong if it could just find way into the field. Well, now the Friars are here, and their stellar offensive rebounding and overall efficiency could cause problems for a UNC team that gets hurt on the defensive glass and allows too many 3-point attempts.
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 12 North Dakota State Bison
Upset odds: 34.1 percent
The Bison play a more risk-averse style than most GKs, dialing back their 3-point attempts and refusing to gamble for offensive rebounds or steals. But Oklahoma is overseeded. The Sooners are the 30th-best team in our model's basic power rating, and they are further hurt by a negative "Secret Sauce" (meaning they resemble previous slain Giants). Oklahoma's mediocre rebounding and inability to force turnovers could be problems.
No. 5 Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Upset odds: 24.9 percent
Well, the selection committee did it: It took our model's favorite team from the past four years and set it against our biggest find from this season. VCU's focus on forcing steals, stopping long-distance shooting and grabbing offensive rebounds is a highly effective combination for a Giant. But the Lumberjacks generate truckloads of extra possessions at a snail's pace, which isn't just a very effective recipe for Killer cooking, but a style that's proved lethal to past Giants similar to VCU.
No. 6 Baylor Bears vs. No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Upset odds: 22.4 percent
Our model sees a strong Giant and a weak Killer, but know this: Baylor is monstrous on the offensive boards, but not the defensive glass, while Nebraska is just the reverse. The Bears excel at perimeter shooting, where the Huskers excel on defense, while Baylor has trouble stopping 3-point shots, which Nebraska isn't particularly good at taking. It's a fascinating matchup.
No. 4 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 13 Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Upset odds: 16.4 percent
Overseeded and vulnerable -- the Bruins don't grab offensive rebounds or stop 3-pointers -- UCLA is also extremely lucky. Tulsa doesn't grab offensive rebounds or shoot 3-pointers, rendering the Golden Hurricane a terrible Killer and making this game far less of a threat than the Bruins deserve.
No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 11 Dayton Flyers
Upset odds: 14.0 percent
Dayton should have been worth a flier, but Ohio State is the No. 15 team in the country according to our basic power rankings, which means the gap between these teams is about three times the typical difference between No. 6 and No. 11 seeds. Ugh.
No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies
Upset odds: 13.5 percent
The fact that this matchup makes our list is one more piece of evidence that it's a tough year for upsets. The Aggies don't generate turnovers or protect the ball and rely heavily on free throws. It makes sense that they're the tallest team in the country -- they play much more like a Giant than a Killer.