The schedule can be treacherously long. Even the most die-hard fan is excused if they can’t get up for a hockey game in mid-October.
When there are 30 teams and each plays 82 games, there simply isn’t that much importance placed on one game, even if the coaches insist otherwise.
That’s what makes this portion of the schedule so fun. Individual games now carry serious weight in the playoff race.
On Monday night, the Blues beat the Kings in a single game that had major playoff ramifications. The win meant St. Louis, with its soft schedule the rest of the way, had improved its playoff odds to 84.55 percent, according to MoneyPuck.com.
These swings might not be as dramatic as the season nears its conclusion, because there’s a good chance more separation occurs before April.
“As teams get more spread out, those games matter less and less. That’s why these games are so important while the standings are so tight,” said Dawson Sprigings, the analytical mind behind the Twitter account @DTMAboutHeart. “Most fans think it can always just come down to the last few games, but things can get away from you pretty quickly.”
So with the help of the brilliant mind of Micah Blake McCurdy, the mathematician who runs hockeyviz.com, we’ve quantified games coming on the schedule that have the most impact on the playoffs race in the East and the West. For the sake of variety, we worked in other teams so this wasn’t just a list of Maple Leafs games, although there’s no denying that every game Toronto plays right now is crucial.
After Monday’s results, McCurdy simulated thousands of results to come up with an "Importance" number.
“Importance here means the sum of the swings for the two teams, where the swing for a given team is the difference between their playoff chance if they win in regulation and their playoff chance if they lose in regulation,” McCurdy explained.
Let’s dive in to look at the five most pivotal games remaining, ranked by their Importance score:
1. Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, March 16
Importance: 52
This game is the Eastern Conference version of Monday’s tilt between the Kings and the Blues. The Leafs play the Panthers on Tuesday, another big one that resonates on the Importance meter, and then they follow it up with this showdown with the Lightning on Thursday. If Auston Matthews makes the playoffs during his rookie season, it’s quite possible we look back at the success the Maple Leafs had in Florida this week.
The Leafs are 1-1 against the Lightning this season, but they have allowed 4.5 goals per game against Tampa Bay. The Lightning’s win on Monday against the Rangers evened them up with the Islanders with 75 points, one behind the Maple Leafs. The win increased Tampa Bay’s playoff likelihood to 25.71 percent (all playoff probabilities are according to MoneyPuck.com, a different model than McCurdy’s). That number increases to 32.59 percent with a regulation win over the Senators on Tuesday night.
2. Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, March 20
Importance: 43
The Bruins are a fascinating team because the advanced metrics really like their chances, despite their inconsistencies. The Bruins are firmly in third place in the Atlantic and have an 87.98 percent chance of making the playoffs. Even more interesting are their relatively strong Stanley Cup chances.
MoneyPuck gives the Bruins an 8.2 percent chance at winning the Stanley Cup, in large part because of their easy division and high expected goals percentage, according to Peter Tanner, the brains behind the numbers. That’s a higher percentage than powerhouse contenders the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks. If you happen to be in Las Vegas looking to place a long-shot Stanley Cup wager, the Bruins would be a good place to start.
3. Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, March 25
Importance: 40
The Islanders' biggest issue in their playoff hopes might be playing in the wrong division. The loss to Carolina on Monday dropped their playoff chances to 23.41 percent, but this game could have real playoff ramifications, especially if the Bruins don’t collect points between now and then.
That’s what makes these next few weeks so interesting. Even a modest losing streak changes things dramatically.
“The margins are razor-thin,” Sprigings said. “If the Islanders have a week like the Capitals and lose four in a row, they can’t come back from that.”
4. Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators, March 30
Importance: 32
5 (tied). Nashville Predators at New York Islanders, March 27
Importance: 31
Most of the playoff race fun is in the East, but the Predators cross over to play the East in the final week of March in a stretch of games that could have real playoff ramifications on both sides.
They start with back-to-back games on the road against the Islanders and Bruins. Then, after one day off, the Predators host the Maple Leafs to conclude a stretch of games where Nashville will have a real say in how the playoff races settle on both sides of the continent.
The Predators beat the Jets on Monday to increase their playoff chances to 83.22 percent, so they are looking good. In the end, Nashville might end up deciding who makes it in the East, too.
5 (tied). Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, March 19
Importance: 31
Even with the loss to the Blues, we’re not giving up on the Kings. Their playoff chances dropped under 50 percent with the loss, but this game against Calgary has some weight to it, especially if Calgary cools off. The Flames' win over the Penguins, their 10th (!) in a row, upped Calgary’s playoff chances to 96.78 percent. Coach Glen Gulutzan’s crew picked the perfect time to get hot.
Other games to watch:
Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, April 2
Importance: 28
Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, March 25
Importance: 21
Note: We’ll get into it more later, but the schedule is set up beautifully for the Blues. These two games, however, could be the ones to trip them up if they end up missing the playoffs.
Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames, March 15
Importance: 16