For the first time in a long time, Liverpool and Manchester City meet this weekend in a match that isn't between Premier League title rivals.
Liverpool (61) are 17 points of clear of fourth-place City (44) at the top of the table, and their only real title rivals are Arsenal (53) and, surprisingly, Nottingham Forest (47).
City have suffered a calamitous campaign that has seen manager Pep Guardiola endure the worst statistical run of his managerial career. City hadn't lost four games in a row in all competitions since 2006 -- two years before the Abu Dhabi takeover of the club and 10 years before Guardiola's game-changing arrival on the blue side of Manchester -- but they did so in November and by the time December's 2-0 defeat to Liverpool had rolled around, their winless run had extended to seven.
After that loss at Anfield, Guardiola was mocked with chants of "You're getting sacked in the morning" by Liverpool supporters and responded by showing six fingers to the crowd to signify the number of titles won during his time at the Etihad.
Yes, City have edge on recent trophies, but new Liverpool boss Arne Slot is favourite to walk away with the title this season in his debut campaign. So how do the two Premier League giants compare? Why are City struggling? How different is Liverpool's Slot from former boss Jurgen Klopp? And is Guardiola starting to figure out what his new-look team should look like?
We asked Rob Dawson, Beth Lindop and Bill Connelly to examine the issues.
Guardiola playing catch-up to Slot
In January 2024, Guardiola had the look of a happy man as spoke for the first time about Klopp's shock announcement that he would be leaving Liverpool in the summer. The Catalan boss admitted he will be happy to see the back of his "biggest rival" -- both at City and at Bayern Munich when Klopp was in charge of Borussia Dortmund.
"I will sleep better," he said, following Manchester City's 1-0 win over Tottenham in the FA Cup.
Fast forward more than a year, and Guardiola perhaps feels differently now. Klopp is gone, but Liverpool, under his replacement Arne Slot, are top of the Premier League table -- 17 points clear of City -- topped the Champions League group phase with seven wins from eight games, and have booked their place in the Carabao Cup final. A surprise fourth-round FA Cup exit to Championship side Plymouth Argyle is, so far, the only blot on Slot's impressive start.
After nine years, conventional wisdom suggested it would take time for Liverpool to get over Klopp -- Arsenal, under Mikel Arteta, are only just coming out of the post-Arsene Wenger malaise from 2018; Manchester United are still struggling after Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013 and have seen 10 different managers in charge of the club in some capacity during that time -- but Guardiola saw it as an opportunity to cash in with a significant threat removed. Yet as City and Liverpool prepare to meet at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, it's Guardiola who is having to deal with a difficult transition. Slot, meanwhile, is on course to match Klopp's Premier League title haul in just a single campaign.
Guardiola's four straight Premier League titles, and six in seven years, already marks him as a modern great. But even he can't touch Slot's start to life in the Premier League.
After 24 games of his first season in 2016-17, Guardiola had 15 wins, four draws and five defeats; Liverpool won 17 of Slot's 24 games in charge, drawing six and losing just one -- to surprise package Nottingham Forest in September. Liverpool also scored more goals (58) and conceded fewer (23) after 24 games than Guardiola's team did in 2016-17 (49 and 29 respectively).
This season, after 24 games, Liverpool had taken more shots (417 to 402), on target (163 vs. 145), created more chances (327 vs. 326) and assists (44 vs. 35), as well as having the edge on Expected Goals, or xG (55.47 to 44.93). It's clear that they also use space better, as their pass network shows wider average distribution when compared to that of City, who are bunched more centrally.
City finished third in Guardiola's first year, 15 points behind champions Chelsea; Liverpool are eight points clear of Arsenal and on track to reach 90 points, something only a handful of teams have ever achieved in the Premier League era.
Guardiola branded his first season in England as "a disaster" after failing to win a trophy. But there are a host of stats that were better in that 2016-17 season than they are now: goals (49 vs. 48), possession (64.3% vs. 60.8%), recoveries (1,344 vs. 903) and tackles (41.3% vs. 41.1%) -- so what does that say about their form this campaign?
Slot could yet end his debut campaign with three trophies if Liverpool get over the line in the league, Champions League and Carabao Cup. Achieve that, and it would better Jose Mourinho's first season at Chelsea when he won the Premier League and League Cup in 2004-05, and also Carlo Ancelotti's first year at Stamford Bridge when he lifted the Premier League and FA Cup double in 2009-10. It's not bad company for any manager, but particularly one who only had a Dutch league and cup on his CV from his time at Feyenoord before arriving on Merseyside last summer.
Slot has followed a different path to the Premier League and is a different character to other heavyweight managers. He's laid-back, friendly and overly polite. He's often found working at Liverpool's Melwood training ground with a calming cup of fresh mint tea and honey, and for quietly celebrating wins with a glass of wine, some cheese, and his family.
Craig Burley slams Manchester City's attitude in a limp second leg performance as Real Madrid advance at the Bernabeu.
Liverpool staff have wondered whether the mask would slip if there was a run of bad results, and it was only after the dramatic draw with Everton -- when James Tarkowski scored a 98th-minute equaliser -- that Slot showed the fiery side of his personality when he was sent off for his reaction to referee Michael Oliver in the aftermath.
Generally though, Slot doesn't take himself too seriously and poked fun at City's legal case with the Premier League after Mohamed Salah, whose contract expires in the summer, speculated he may have played his last game against Guardiola's team when they met in December. "Maybe Mo knows more about the 115 [charges] so he doesn't expect them to be in the Premier League next season," Slot said. "I do expect them to be in the Premier League. That was a joke! I do repeat: that was a joke."
Guardiola and Klopp occasionally clashed over the subject of City's finances, but Guardiola's calm response to Slot suggested their rivalry will be played out in a different tone. "It was a joke," he said when asked about Slot's comments. "He said it was a joke, right? It was a joke."
For most of Klopp's time at Liverpool, he was chasing Guardiola and City. So far this season, the roles have been reversed and it's Guardiola who is now looking up at Liverpool and their new boss.
Klopp only ever recorded one league win at the Etihad, in November 2015, and that was before Guardiola's time. On Sunday, Slot can achieve something the German never managed and take a giant step towards winning Liverpool only their second title in the last 35 years. -- Dawson
Gab Marcotti believes that Liverpool's recent bad results are due to the players feeling fatigued.
City rely on Haaland; Liverpool share the scoring burden
When Erling Haaland and Darwin Núñez met for the first time in the Community Shield following big-money moves to the Premier League in 2022, it looked like it could be the start of a major rivalry. Núñez emerged triumphant from that early head-to-head, scoring in stoppage time to seal Liverpool's 3-1 win, while Haaland's most notable contribution that afternoon was missing a late sitter.
Fast forward to present day, though, and there can be no debating who is the superior striker.
Haaland, who arrived for only €60m, has scored a staggering 117 goals in 133 appearances for City, helping them to consecutive league titles and playing a crucial role in bringing that elusive Champions League trophy to the Etihad in 2023. Núñez, on the other hand, has managed just 39 goals in 130 appearances -- a paltry return considering Liverpool paid an initial €75m transfer fee to sign the Uruguay international, with the 2024 Carabao Cup his only piece of silverware so far.
While no Liverpool fan would turn up their nose at the prospect of installing Haaland in their front line, there is an argument that Núñez's all-action (if slightly volatile) style better serves Arne Slot's system, as both players approach the No. 9 role in very different ways.
Haaland has scored 19 goals in 25 Premier League starts, having registered 94 shots during that time; Núñez, by contrast, has managed just four goals in seven (plus 13 substitute appearances), taking only 25 shots. But when, as has often been the case this season, City find themselves under pressure, Haaland has been criticised for his lack of influence outside of the opposition's 18-yard box. For example, the Norway international had just six touches in the first half of City's 5-1 defeat to Arsenal.
This season, Haaland has won back possession 19 times in the Premier League, including three times in the defensive third and eight times in midfield. Núñez -- despite playing less than half the minutes of Haaland -- has won back possession on 31 occasions, eight of which came in the defensive third and 17 in midfield.
Even Diogo Jota -- who has played just 693 league minutes this term in comparison to Haaland's 2,213 -- has won back possession more frequently (28 times: seven in defensive third, 13 in midfield) than the City man. Those numbers show there is more expectation placed on whoever is occupying the No. 9 role for Liverpool to track back and be more involved in advancing their team up the pitch.
Haaland is clearly the main man for City, but they do struggle without him (as shown in the 3-0 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League). The €80m arrival of Omar Marmoush in January will help, but it might be too little, too late: Phil Foden is the club's next most prolific scorer in the league (7), and the fact that defender Joško Gvardiol 5) is third on the list speaks volumes.
For Liverpool, there is no question that Salah (23) takes centre stage, but Luis Díaz (9) and Cody Gakpo (8) share the attacking burden. Rather being the focal point of the attack, Núñez is an important but not indispensable cog in a well-oiled machine.
As the old adage goes: "Defence, not attack, wins you titles." This season, it is at the back where Liverpool's superiority over City has been most pronounced.
Slot's side have conceded 24 goals in the Premier League this season compared to City's 35, though Guardiola would likely point to the fact that the campaign has been blighted by a succession of injuries to his backline. For example, Slot has been able to deploy his first-choice centre-back partnership of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté 18 times in the top flight; City's most common partnership, Manuel Akanji and Rúben Dias, have made just six starts together.
Still, when you crunch the numbers, it's easy to see why Liverpool have had more success in keeping the opposition at bay. Van Dijk, who has played every minute in the Premier League this season, has a duel success rate of 70.4%, while Konate is not far behind him with 68.7%. By contrast, Dias's is just 55.4%, while Akanji's is even lower at 47.1%.
In terms of aerial duels, the City duo are also way behind their Liverpool counterparts: Akanji has won just 43.6% of his battles in the air this term, with Dias picking up 56.3%. Meanwhile, even Van Dijk (73.4%) is behind the formidable Konate (78.1%).
Over the past four seasons, City have finished top or joint-top when it comes to the least amount of goals conceded. Liverpool are still four goals off Arsenal for that honour this season, but their defensive solidity is what has laid the foundations for their impressive form under Slot this season. And it could take them to the title. -- Lindop
Craig Burley reacts to Liverpool's 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, which offers hope to Arsenal in the Premier League title race.
The Klopp Effect
Over the last few months, the party line regarding Arne Slot's succession for Jurgen Klopp has basically been the following: Slot inherited Klopp's "heavy-metal ball" at Liverpool, turned the intensity down from 11 to about 7, and took over the Premier League with more controlled ball.
What can I say? The party line is sometimes right. Under Slot, virtually every measure of extreme intensity has been toned down, and the win rate has risen. After producing 67 and 82 points, respectively, over the past two seasons -- and finishing fifth and third in the Premier League in the process -- Liverpool are currently on pace for 89 points, eight points ahead of second-place Arsenal's pace.
Name the statistic, and Liverpool has probably either improved it or slowed it down in 2024-25.
In attack, they're attempting fewer shots per possession (0.148, second in the league but down from 0.160 in 2023-24), but averaging far greater xG per shot (0.183, also second and up from 0.157) and, therefore, more goals per possession. They've gone from attempting 2.7 shots per game worth at least 0.2 xG -- let's call them "big shots" from this point forward -- to 3.3, first in the league and a 22% jump. They've gone from attempting 65% of their shots in the box to 74%.
In defense, Liverpool have given opponents more time on the ball, allowing 10.5 passes per defensive action -- far higher than the 8.9 they allowed last season, but still fourth-fewest in the league. They forced 53.9 high turnovers per game last season; that's down to 45.6 (fifth). But with less risk has come fewer breakdowns: They're allowing 0.088 xG per shot, second-lowest in the league and a major drop from 0.152 in 2023-24. Opponents have gone from averaging 1.6 big shots to 1.2, third-fewest in the league and a 25% drop.
Klopp won big on many occasions at Liverpool, so there should be no insinuation that one method is better than another. But after a couple of bumpy seasons, turning down the heavy metal seems to have been exactly what Liverpool needed. Injuries are down -- which is both a bit lucky and perhaps a sign of less physical strain -- and Slot has found a reliable core lineup around which to build.
Liverpool also didn't make any major squad additions in either of this season's transfer windows, but Slot has basically uncovered a new player with his heavy reliance on 22-year old midfielder Ryan Gravenberch, who has gone from playing 33% of league minutes under Klopp last season to 95% this year. He's one of six players to have topped 80% of league minutes thus far (Virgil van Dijk was the only Liverpool player to top 77% last season), and there's been an obvious effect on the chemistry in the lineup.
Slot also passed his first Pep test. Back on Dec. 1, in his first meeting with Guardiola's City, Liverpool won with a 2-0 scoreline that was actually a bit kind to City. After 50 minutes, Liverpool led 1-0, but had attempted 10 shots (worth 1.7 xG) to City's one (0.13 xG). They took the lead on the easiest of Mo Salah-to-Cody Gakpo tap-ins, but Dominik Szoboszlai, van Dijk and Gakpo all had chances to double Liverpool's lead, and Salah missed on a breakaway opportunity before finally putting the game away with a penalty in the 78th minute.
That match was at Anfield, and on Sunday they'll face a City team that has remodeled itself a decent amount. But at this point it's hard not to assume that Slot's Reds will again control matters. It's basically what they've done all season. -- Connelly
Pep vs. Pep: How he has been forced to evolve
A couple of months ago, in anticipation of Pep Guardiola's 500th game as City manager, we took a look at how Guardiola's City had come to dominate the Premier League -- extreme ball control, rigid positional play and, aside from a glitchy 2019-20 campaign in which Fernandinho began to finally age and Rodri wasn't yet ready, inch-perfect play from a world class defensive midfielder -- and how exactly things had begun to fall apart. They had won only one of their previous 13 matches at the time, an all-time funk for Guardiola, failing to account for an early-season injury for Rodri and failing to adjust as the effects of age waylaid a creaky squad.
City have rebounded a bit since then, using the January transfer window to bring in some much-needed speed and relative youth. Starting with Dec. 29's win over Leicester, they've won eight of their last 13 matches in all competitions -- not remarkable by City's annual standards, but a dramatic improvement over pre-Christmas form. And in last Saturday's 4-0 win over Newcastle, we caught a sustained glimpse of what a new Manchester City might look like.
New additions Omar Marmoush, Nico Gonzalez and Abdukodir Khusanov all started against Newcastle (as did summer addition Savinho), Marmoush had a hat-trick in 33 minutes -- with assists from three different players -- and against a pretty good transition team, City allowed nothing in transition. Newcastle managed just three shot attempts, one "big shot" and nothing in counterattacking situations. City started seven players aged 24 or younger (plus the 26-year-old Marmoush) and brought three more off the bench but combined extreme ball control with random, devastating directness.
Aside from a late-game injury for Erling Haaland, it was a delightful day at the office for a club used to a lot more of those.
Since Dec. 29, City are second in the league in points per game (2.29) and first in goals scored (3.1 per match). Haaland and Phil Foden have each scored six goals in these seven matches, while Savinho has a goal and five assists and, despite only starting four of the seven matches, Kevin De Bruyne has four assists. City are easing off of dominating the ball -- their 57% possession rate since Dec. 29 ranks only fourth in the Premier League, three spots lower than normal -- but they're also allowing fewer high-quality chances. In this span, they rank 14th in shots allowed per possession (0.126) but a vastly improved 12th in xG allowed per shot (0.148).
Simply having a mediocre defense is a major step up, and against Newcastle they were far better than mediocre.
Of course, this positivity was fleeting. In the two weeks prior to the win over Newcastle, City were blown out by Arsenal (5-1) and watched a 2-1 lead turn into a 3-2 home defeat against Real Madrid in the latest of many Champions League collapses. And this past Wednesday in Madrid, they had allowed three Kylian Mbappé goals before they managed to attempt their second shot, and their UCL run came to an official end with a feckless 3-1 loss. Transition defense was again a mess, as was everything else.
The win over Newcastle has turned out to be noteworthy in a couple of different ways. It was certainly a delightful performance, but beyond that, it was just about the only positive result City have gotten against a particularly good team. Since Oct. 30, they have played 13 matches against teams currently in the top 25 of Opta's power ratings. They've won just two of those matches, dropping 11 (seven by multiple goals) and getting outscored by a 31-17 margin. And even with their improved form in the new year, they've fallen 4-2 to PSG and, of course, 5-1 to Arsenal and a combined 6-3 to Real Madrid.
Thus far in 2024-25, Liverpool are better than any of those teams. City have stopped the bleeding, and we'll likely continue to see sporadic signs of improvement as they attempt to at least lock down a top-four finish in the Premier League and assure Champions League play next season (barring a negative verdict in court). But it will take a massive step forward for Guardiola's team to please the home crowd and deliver Liverpool a setback. -- Connelly