It's still just December, only half of all the games have been played, and the season is already over. Well, at least it feels that way. If pressed to choose, we'd all pick the same winners across Europe's Big Five leagues: PSG in Ligue 1 and Real Madrid in LaLiga, while Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Manchester City all repeat as domestic-league champs in the Bundesliga, Serie A and Premier League respectively.
Yes, each one of those outcomes is by far the most likely outcome in each league; all five sides are odds-on favorites for the title, to varying degrees. But that doesn't mean that they're all going to win, or that the PSG-Madrid-Man City-Inter-Bayern outcome is even a likely one. Using the title odds from FiveThirtyEight's projections, the combined probability of all five current favorites ending their seasons atop their tables is just 48%. In other words, the most likely outcome is that at least one of the current league leaders coughs up the lead come this spring.
Plus, we've still got the knockout rounds of a little tournament called the Champions League still left to play. So, with 2022 right around the corner -- or already here, depending on when you're reading -- why don't we take a look at all of the in-the-realm-of-possibility potential title winners? The betting markets are still the most accurate publicly available source of projections available, so we've used the odds from FanDuel's sportsbook to rank 2022's 20 most likely champions, in order.
1. Bayern Munich: -9000 to win the German Bundesliga
Let's make it 10 in a row. Why not?
Bayern might be the best team in the world: most points per game in Europe's big five, best goal differential per game, best expected-goal differential per game (according to the site FBref). They're as good as they've ever been, and they've already built up a nine-point lead after 17 games. Meanwhile the rest of the Bundesliga is as bad as it's been in a long time. See: RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, and Wolfsburg all being eliminated in the group stages of the Champions League.
2. PSG: -6000 to win French Ligue 1
I'm not sure if it speaks better of Bayern, or worse of PSG, that the Bundesliga has become less competitive than Ligue 1. Even though Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar have underwhelmed thus far -- 23 teams in Europe are attempting more shots, 39 are allowing fewer -- it hasn't mattered in France, where they're holding a 12-point lead over second-place Nice with half the season still to play.
3. Real Madrid: -1050 to win Spanish LaLiga
It always shocks me to remember how few league titles this team has won recently. Although they're consistently raking in the highest revenues of any club in the world, they've won just three of the last 13 LaLiga titles. Of course, they've made up for it by winning a ridiculous four Champions League trophies over that same stretch. Barring a collapse -- a nine-point lead on second-place Sevilla, a 17-point lead on defending champs Atletico Madrid -- Madrid will make it two LaLiga championships in three years, though another Champions League doesn't seem particularly likely this time around.
4. Manchester City: -850 to win the English Premier League
Wanna completely suck the life out of a game? Sorry, Brentford! Prefer blowing the other team into outer space? Nice try, Leicester! Manchester City never got that striker they wanted, and yet they might be better than ever before.
5. Inter Milan: -320 to Win Serie A
Although Inter only have a four-point lead on AC Milan, there's a lot to suggest that the gap between the two is even bigger than that. Inter's goal differential (plus-34) and their xG differential (plus-22.6) are both significantly more impressive than Milan's marks of plus-18 and plus-9.0. Both of those metrics do a way better job of predicting future performance than a team's current point total.
Credit to Simone Inzaghi, who took over a team that lost its two best players, Romelu Lukaku and Achraf Hakimi, over the summer and now has them scoring more goals, conceding fewer, and winning more points than the year before.
6. Manchester City: +270 to win the Champions League
It's pretty much the same story every year with these guys. They're favored to win the Champions League -- and yet the most likely outcome is still that someone other than Manchester City wins the European Cup.
7. Bayern Munich: +350 to win the Champions League
There was a brief stretch, about a decade ago, when it seemed like Brazil and Spain were clearly the two best national teams in the world, but we never got to see them play. First, the U.S. somehow took down Spain in the semifinals of the 2009 Confederations Cup, and then Felipe Melo inexplicably punched a ball with his fist in the quarterfinals of the 2010 World Cup against the Netherlands.
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I'm getting similar vibes from City and Bayern. First, Man City lost to Lyon in the quarterfinals of the Champions League in 2020, and then Bayern returned the favor last season by losing to PSG in the same round. They're the two best teams in the world. Can we just get one game between these two, Soccer Gods?
8. Liverpool: +550 to win the Champions League
Even with a Round of 16 match-up against a very good Inter Milan side -- the highest rated second-place finisher, per FiveThirtyEight's rankings -- Jurgen Klopp's team have better odds to win the Champions League than all but two other teams. What can logically be teased out from that: The betting markets consider Liverpool to be the third-best team in the world.
I think that's right, too: City and Bayern are the only teams with better goal and xG differentials. But despite all that, the Reds are probably not gonna win the league, and they've only got around a 13% chance of winning their seventh European Cup.
T-9. Chelsea: +750 to win the Champions League
These odds are no doubt boosted by a cushy Round of 16 draw that sees them paired up with a team (Lille) that's eighth in Ligue 1 and has conceded as many goals as they have scored. Despite rating Chelsea behind Bayern and Liverpool, FiveThirtyEight gives Thomas Tuchel's side the second-best odds (88%) of advancing to the quarterfinals. Only City have allowed fewer goals per game, but Chelsea just haven't been able to create chances at the same scale as the three teams ahead of them. Liverpool, Bayern, and City are all averaging at least 2.3 xG per game, while Romelu Lukaku & Co. have created 1.6 per match.
T-9. AC Milan: +750 to win Serie A
This is where it gets fun: Milan have the same chances of winning Serie A as Chelsea do the Champions League.
We'll have a much better sense of things after their next five matches, which end with what's already looking like an absolute must-win against Inter on February 6. They've been good-not-great thus far -- fifth in Serie A in both xG for and against -- but perhaps they'll improve in the second half if Stefano Pioli is ever able to field a consistent team. Through 19 games, an absurd 21 Milan players have featured for at least 400 league minutes.
11. Liverpool: +850 to win the Premier League
Avert your eyes, Liverpool fans.
All charts courtesy of TruMedia/Stats Perform
Also, you guys might wanna ignore this one, too. In 2019-10, the season they won the Premier League, Liverpool produced an xG differential of plus-31.5. We're just halfway through the 2021-22 campaign, and that number is already up to plus-29. This is easily the best Liverpool team since Jurgen Klopp arrived at Anfield, and the most likely outcome to their season is that they don't win a single trophy.
12. Napoli: +900 to win Serie A
Through the end of October, it sure looked like Napoli might win Serie A. Undefeated, they'd won 10 out of 11 matches. It was all backed up by impressive underlying numbers -- and then it just stopped.
Since the start of November, they've won twice, drawn twice more and lost four. They're the best defensive team in Serie A -- fewest goals and xG conceded -- but any potential title challenge hinges on them finding someone to keep scoring goals. Midfielders Fabian Ruiz and Piotr Zielinski have combined for 10 goals on 2.6 xG, while 34-year-old Dries Mertens has chipped in with five from 1.7 xG in just about 500 minutes. Lorenzo Insigne is doing his best to regress the entire team to the mean with his four from 8.3 xG, but he might be on his way to Major League Soccer.
With none of those looking like reliable options, 23-year-old Victor Osimhen would be their best hope -- second in Serie A behind Lautaro Martinez in non-penalty xG per 90 -- but he's been out with a broken cheekbone since the end of November and is expected to miss a couple more months.
Someone tell Dennis Rodman; it might be time for Andrea Petagna.
T-13. PSG: +1000 to win the Champions League
The implied odds from FanDuel give PSG a 53% chance of advancing past their Round of 16 match-up with Real Madrid. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight flips it around, giving Los Blancos a 55% shot at keeping another European dream alive. Why the difference? Well, the betting markets are taking all kinds of unquantifiable factors into account -- say, the chance that all of PSG's talent just eventually figures it out, or the possibility that they're not really trying that hard in Ligue 1.
FiveThirtyEight's model, meanwhile, is mainly just looking at who PSG played, how they've played, and how it compares to everyone else. Despite playing in a significantly easier league, Mauricio Pochettino's team has worse xG differentials than Bayern, City, Liverpool, Inter, Chelsea and Napoli. And their group-stage performances against better competition weren't particularly impressive, either. Halfway through the season, PSG simply haven't played as well as they had at this point last season or the season before that -- despite a theoretically more talented roster now.
What's more important? We'll find out in February.
T-13. Sevilla: +1000 to win LaLiga
Perhaps this should put the other possibilities in this odds range into perspective. Sevilla have the ninth-best xG differential in LaLiga. They've managed to turn a plus-2.3 xG edge into a plus-16 edge in actual goals. If they keep that kind of overperformance up for the rest of the season, they'll be one of the great statistical anomalies in the quantified history of the sport.
And even if they do keep it up, what's it gonna get them? A half-season of lights-out finishing and goalkeeping still has them closer in the table to Rayo Vallecano than to Real Madrid.
T-13. Atalanta: +1000 to win Serie A
They're still as wild as ever, and you can see it in this chart, which plots how quickly teams move the ball up the field with how aggressively they press. The lower the PPDA, the more intense the press:
Atalanta sit in a cluster of teams that press like mad and still manage to move the ball relatively quickly: RB Leipzig, Leeds United, and Liverpool. Gian Piero Gasperini's style is still there, but as the playmakers that made it all tick, Alejandro "Papu" Gomez and Josip Ilicic, have left town or aged deeper into their 30s, the effectiveness has declined. Two years ago, their per-game xG differential was plus-1.07. Last year, it was plus-0.92. And this season it's dipped all the way down to plus-0.48.
They're just not as good as they used to be, and an aging roster doesn't suggest they're likely to get much better, either.
16. Ajax: +1400 to win the Champions League
This is not a "picks" column: we're just using the betting markets to give us an informed sense of the various possibilities the rest of the season could end up reaching toward. However, if you kidnapped my dog and conditioned its release on me giving you one "Stone Cold Lock of the Week, Presented by Jack Link's Beef Jerky" or some such, I think I would -- theoretically -- offer you "Ajax to win the Champions League". After they won all their matches in the group stages, scoring 20 goals and conceding five in six matches, they somehow dropped to second in the Dutch league. But that seems like a fluke that'll soon correct itself.
PSV are one point ahead of Ajax, despite a 30-GOAL GAP in goal differential. Look at this!
Ajax are dominating their domestic league to the maximum degree, they lit up the group stages, and they landed a pretty easy draw against Benfica for the Round of 16. (They beat Sporting Lisbon by a combined 9-3 scoreline in their two matches ... and Sporting are currently seven points ahead of Benfica in the league table.) Ajax are not likely champions by any stretch, but they seem like they've got a better chance of winning the whole thing than the 6.7% implied by those odds.
FiveThirtyEight sees them as the fourth-best team in the world, between Liverpool and Chelsea, and gives them an 11% chance of lifting their fifth European Cup. Now tell me where my dog is!
17. Real Madrid: +1800 to win the Champions League
How can a team be so likely to win LaLiga and have such long odds to win the Champions League? Two things are at play here.
The first: they're playing PSG, who may not have played to their expected level this season, but who also have Messi, Mbappe, Neymar and a cadre of other stars. The second: Madrid just haven't played as well as their point total suggests. Halfway through the season, their xG differential is plus-11 -- equal to Atletico Madrid (who've played one fewer game) and worse than Barcelona's league-best (soccer is weird, man) mark of plus-13.2.
I've seen it suggested that Real's numbers are skewed because they're so good at taking an early lead and then sitting back, but their performance when the game is tied isn't anything special, either. No, they're winning the league because Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior have been lights-out in front of goal, combining for 25 goals from 16 xG. If that was likely to continue, their odds would be a lot better than this.
18. Chelsea: +1900 to win the Premier League
They've scored seven fewer goals than Liverpool in one more game, while City have eight more from the same amount. They're trailing both sides by more than 10 xG. And on the defensive side, they're even with Liverpool on xG, while City have conceded two fewer goals and five fewer xG. Given all that, it's really hard to picture a world where Chelsea end up ahead of both Liverpool and City come the end of the season.
19. Manchester United: +2000 to win the Champions League
I mean, I guess they might be better than the Liverpool team that won in 2005 and the Chelsea side that took it home in 2012? But man, it hasn't looked great so far. In the five games they've played under Ralf Rangnick -- against a soft schedule that featured Crystal Palace, Young Boys, Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley -- they've scored seven goals and conceded four. What's gonna happen when they finally play someone good?
20. Juventus: +2300 to win Serie A
Their per-game xG differential last season: plus-0.95
Their per-game xG differential this season: plus-0.58
Someone needs to apologize to Andrea Pirlo.