The first two games of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off included one that was close until the end -- Canada's 4-3 OT win over Sweden -- and one that was close through 37 minutes -- the United States' 6-1 rout of Finland.
A super Saturday doubleheader is taking place. Finland defeated Sweden, 4-3 in OT, in the first game, and U.S.-Canada is the nightcap (8 p.m., ABC/ESPN+/Disney+).
Before we dive into the preview, here's an updated look at the round-robin standings. The top two teams after the round-robin will face off in the final Thursday:
Who are the key players and matchups to watch? What are the most important statistics heading into this contest? Read on for all of that, courtesy of ESPN Research and Stathletes, plus betting intel courtesy of ESPN BET, and picks on the game from Sean Allen.
United States vs.
Canada
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
Bell Centre (Montreal)
Betting intel
Money line: USA -110 | Canada -110
Game spread: USA +1.5 (-325) | Canada -1.5 (+220)
Total goals: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)
United States
The United States' three goals in the opening three minutes of the third period against Finland are the fastest three goals by any one team from the start of any period in NHL international tournament history (previous: 5:01 to start the third by USA in 1981 Canada Cup vs. Czechoslovakia).
The Tkachuk brothers were the stars of the show Thursday. Brady Tkachuk had five slot shot attempts, the most of any player in the tournament; four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most of any player (Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon); and five scoring chances created with shots and passes, tied for second (MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Cale Makar)
Matthew Tkachuk had four slot shot attempts, tied for second in the tournament (MacKinnon, Mark Stone); four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most (Brady Tkachuk, MacKinnon); and six scoring chances created with shots and passes, the most in the tournament.
The U.S. led all teams in slot shot attempts (23) and scoring chances (20), per Stathletes. The team ranks second in total shot attempts with 58, behind Sweden (69).
Team USA was credited with 32 hits, which led all teams through the first game. That was 11 more than the next-closest team (Sweden, 21). Brady Tkachuk led all players through the opening games with eight hits, matching his NHL season high (Nov. 9 vs. the Boston Bruins).
Canada
Canada has won 26 straight games with Sidney Crosby in the lineup. The streak consists of the last four games of the 2010 Olympics, all six games of the 2014 Olympics, all nine games he played in 2015 IIHF World Championship (he sat out the last preliminary-round game), all six games at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and the first game of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.
Nathan MacKinnon led all players in the game against Sweden with six shots on goal. He is the NHL leader in games having six or more shots on goal with 13, which is one more than USA's Zach Werenski, USA's Jack Hughes and David Pastrnak.
Brad Marchand's goal was his sixth in NHL international competitions (Canada Cup, World Cup of Hockey), the most among active players.
Per Stathletes, every Canadian forward created at least one scoring chance (either by pass or shot) except Anthony Cirelli and Travis Konecny. Konecny is being replaced in the lineup by Sam Bennett for the game against the U.S.
Connor McDavid had 72 puck touches, according to Stathletes, 16 more than the next-highest Canadian forward (Mitch Marner).
Picks for the game
The Americans made a couple of line changes late in the game that made a world of difference. First, they realized, 'Hey, aren't those two brothers?' and finally put the Tkachuks on a line together. Brady and Matthew, along with Jack Eichel, dominated with 13 shot attempts in 6:03 at five-on-five.
Zach Werenski anytime point scorer (+110). Second, they swapped out Adam Fox and installed Werenski on the top power-play unit. With Fox, the group that also included Auston Matthews, Eichel, Jake Guentzel and Matthew Tkachuk managed just one shot on goal and three shot attempts in 2:55. With Werenski, they scored two goals on six shot attempts in just 1:15.
Canada's power play was as dangerous as expected, but after William Nylander took an early high-sticking infraction, Sweden stayed out of the box for the rest of the game. The result was only 12 seconds of power-play time, because that's how long the unit of Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart and Cale Makar needed to fire one shot on goal and score.
At 5-on-5, the line of Reinhart, McDavid and Mitch Marner was the only one of Canada's lines that managed to have a positive result in the shot attempts battle, with the other three allowing equal or more shot attempts against them.
Sam Reinhart anytime goal scorer (+230): This game feels like it's going to have more penalties. There are a lot of emotions coming into the contest, and we'll get to see more than 12 seconds of this elite Canadian power play. So why not go right back to the same well and expect the player in front of the net to bank one in?