With 62 points in 64 games, the Chicago Blackhawks are in last place in the Central Division and almost certain to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007-08.
It's a day everybody knew was coming, but nobody knew exactly when. To win the Stanley Cup three times, the Blackhawks signed their core players to rich, long-term deals that made them the league's best team in the short term, but it would leave them with too much cap space devoted to older, declining players some day down the road. Apparently, that day has come.
Chicago has spent to the cap but is outside of the playoff picture. The salary cap is expected to rise to between $78 million and $82 million in 2018-19, but Chicago already has more than $53.8 million in cap space committed to just eight players. That rises to just under $59.1 million if Marian Hossa is included, who is missing the 2017-18 season due to a medical condition. If this is not a playoff team right now, it certainly won't be when all those players are a year older, and there is only around $20 million to fill the remaining 10 to 15 roster spots.
To turn things around, here is what we suggest Chicago does with each of its eight core veterans (not including Hossa) -- and how those who should depart can be replaced.
Patrick Kane
Cap hit: $10.5 million, expires 2022-23
With 177 goals scored and 178 allowed, Chicago has a goal differential of minus-1 this season. What would it be if Kane, their leading scorer, hadn't played a single game?
Being able to answer questions like this is one of the keys to effective cap management. Statistics such as goals versus threshold (GVT) and wins above replacement (WAR) seek to measure all of a player's contributions in terms of how he impacts the team's goal differential. While he has a tremendous upside, Kane is projected to be worth about 13.3 goals per 82-game season.
This estimate is only half the equation, because there's a limited amount of cap space teams can use each season. For NHL front offices, choosing a roster is a variation of the knapsack problem that involves placing up to 23 players of varying cap hits and estimated performance levels onto to the roster in a fashion that maximizes its expected goal differential. Given Kane's cap hit, which will be exceeded by only Connor McDavid next season, there might be a more cost-effective way of filling Chicago's knapsack.
In terms of cost effectiveness, entry-level contracts are the best, because they are capped in size and length and are mostly immune to competing offers. Most of the teams who have done surprisingly well this season have seven or eight players under these contracts in their lineup on any given night.
In Chicago's case, that means that players such as Nick Schmaltz, Alex DeBrincat, David Kampf, Matthew Highmore and Victor Ejdsell could share the responsibility of replacing some of Kane's scoring. Restricted free agents, who receive fewer competing offers because of the compensation rules, also could be of assistance; for the Blackhawks, that includes John Hayden, Anthony Duclair and Vinnie Hinostroza. With a spare $10.5 million in cap space, Chicago also could hunt for some free-agent bargains.
Of course, there's no reason to rush Kane out of town. At age 30 next season, any decline is expected to be gradual, and his contractual value will be increased as his actual salary drops from $13.9 million this season to $7.0 million by 2020-21. That, plus the fact that he has a no-movement clause, means that Chicago can take its time, wait for the young players to develop and move Kane if and when the offer and situation is right for all involved.
Verdict: Shop him, but be picky.
Jonathan Toews
Cap hit: $10.5 million, expires 2022-23
Being a similar age and having an identical contract, Toews' situation is similar to Kane's. The key difference is that Toews is a former Selke Trophy winner whose absence would affect the team's goals allowed to an even greater extent than goals scored.
It's difficult to estimate a player's defensive value, but there is plenty of statistical evidence of Toews' tremendous importance. He and linemate Brandon Saad are the team's top forward options when it's short-handed, and they face the top opponents at even strength. Despite that tough assignment, Toews ranks fourth in the NHL, with a Corsi differential of plus-281 as of March 1. In percentage terms, Chicago's share of shot attempts improves from 51.59 percent to 57.50 when Toews is on the ice. In addition, his 57.9 faceoff winning percentage ranks fifth in the NHL among those to take at least 100 draws, and his 42 goals in 89 career shootout attempts ranks third league-wide all time.
Despite his importance, Chicago should also be shopping Toews. As a point of comparison, similar but slightly older players, including Ryan Kesler and Patrice Bergeron, carry annual cap hits of just $6.875 million through 2021-22.
If they receive a good offer for Toews, and if he waives his no-movement clause, then the Blackhawks can try to fill his spot with a lower-cost free agent such as Paul Stastny, who is projected to sign a two-year deal with an annual cap hit of $4.7 million this summer, according to Matt Cane's salary prediction model. While obviously a downgrade from Toews, that difference of $5.8 million in cap space could be used to upgrade other spots on the depth chart and make Chicago a more competitive team overall.
Verdict: As with Kane: Shop him, but be picky.
Brent Seabrook
Cap hit: $6.875 million, expires 2023-24
Despite his great reputation, few teams would have interest in Seabrook, who will be 33 next season and carries an annual cap hit of $6.875 million for six more seasons. He already has been pushed down the depth chart. And he even was a healthy scratch this season.
Under normal circumstances, Chicago wouldn't be able to shed this contract without taking on a similar one and/or giving up long-term assets, such as picks and prospects. However, given recent events, there might be no better opportunity to trade Seabrook than this summer.
There is a high demand for right-shot defensemen right now, and the market value for veteran defensemen who max out at around No. 4 on the depth chart has never been greater. Erik Gudbranson just signed a three-year contract with an annual cap hit of $4.0 million, which is consistent with where the market was set by free agents Kris Russell, Brendan Smith, Michael Stone, Karl Alzner, Dmitry Kulikov and Trevor Daley last summer. If Chicago retains a little salary and Seabrook waives his no-movement clause, then the Blackhawks could find a taker for his contract.
On the ice, replacing Seabrook wouldn't be as difficult as it once was. This is especially true in Chicago, which has a knack for finding usable and cost-effective defensemen (Jordan Oesterle and Jan Rutta) and role-playing specialists (Cody Franson, Viktor Svedberg and Adam Clendening) -- and also has a few potentially NHL-ready prospects available (Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom).
Verdict: Trade him
Corey Crawford
Cap hit: $6.0 million, expires 2019-20
Given the widespread availability of cost-effective, NHL-caliber goaltenders and the presence of Blackhawks Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube, who are both in their prime and have career AHL save percentages of and .923 and .914, respectively, moving a 33-year-old Crawford appears to be the most harmless way to free up cap space. However, that might not be the case.
A closer look at the underlying numbers suggests that Crawford is the best goalie to never finish among the three Vezina Trophy finalists, and that it might be necessary for Chicago to have his steady and reliable goaltending while reloading.
Going back to 2014-15, you need five decimal places to separate Crawford's .92304 save percentage from Carey Price, .92307, which is second to Antti Raanta's .92388 among all NHL goalies with a minimum of 50 starts in that span. Crawford's 62.9 quality start percentage is well ahead of Price's 57.1 percent, and it ranks second to Raanta's 65.2 percent.
That means Crawford is arguably among the league's top three goalies, and all for a cap hit that is tied with Cory Schneider for seventh -- and far less than Price's $10.5 million. Crawford stays.
Verdict: Keep him.
Brandon Saad
Cap hit: $6.0 million, expires 2020-21
After three seasons during which he consistently scored either 52 or 53 points, Saad is on pace for just 35 this season. Given the tremendous success of Artemi Panarin in Columbus, for whom Saad was swapped over the summer, those who expected more from Saad would like to see this contract moved out. Don't be too hasty.
Most of what was written about Toews also applies to his linemate, except that Saad's cap hit is barely more than half as high, and he's only 25.
Whether in Columbus or Chicago, Saad kills penalties, plays the tough minutes against top opponents in both zones and has great shot-based metrics. His relative Corsi percentage of plus-5.92 ranked 29th among forwards who played at least 20 games in 2016-17, and his plus-6.42 ranks 13th this season.
The issue with Saad's scoring boils down to on-ice shooting percentages. Someone can play the same way, but his numbers will appear much better when those percentages are high and worse when they're low. Trading a player in the latter situation just doesn't make any sense.
This season, Chicago is scoring on only 6.8 percent of its shots when Saad is on the ice at 5-on-5, which is unusually low for a top-six forward. His scoring totals will improve the moment that rises back above 9.5 percent, where it finished in three of his five seasons. Hang on to him until then, at the very least.
Verdict: Trading while his value is so low would be foolish. He stays.
Duncan Keith
Cap hit: $5,538,462, expires 2022-23
In 2016-17, Keith finished fourth in voting for the Norris Trophy, with a cap hit that ranked 23rd among defensemen. At 34, the day might eventually come when the same cap space can be better invested elsewhere, but it hasn't arrived yet.
Even if and when that day arrives, the fact that Keith's underlying salary steadily drops from $4.5 million in 2018-19 to $1.5 million in 2022-23 will help maintain his trade value to organizations that aren't spending to the cap.
Until then, Keith is going to continue to serve as Chicago's No. 1 defenseman in all game and manpower situations, and he will be relied upon to shut down top opponents -- like he did with his two most frequent opposing forwards, Connor McDavid (31:33) and Johnny Gaudreau (28:16), per Natural Stat Trick.
Verdict: He remains one of the sport's best blueliners. Keep him.
Artem Anisimov
Cap hit: $4.55 million, expires 2020-21
The players listed so far were added to win the Stanley Cup on one or more occasions, they possess some combination of strong scoring stats, shot-based metrics and secondary contributions and they have only the open question of whether they still provide enough to warrant their high cap hits. Only that final open question relates to Anisimov.
Despite playing primarily with Kane since being acquired for the 2015-16 season, Anisimov has averaged just 1.46 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is well below the 1.7 league average for a forward, per Corsica Hockey. The only noteworthy difference in his play is that his shooting percentage has climbed from a previous career average of 11.2 percent to 18.3 percent with Chicago.
In terms of shot-based metrics, Chicago's share of on-ice shot attempts has dropped from 54.48 percent to 49.25 percent with Anisimov on the ice this season, for a relative Corsi of minus-5.23 percent that ranks 389th out of the 430 forwards to play at least 20 games. As for his secondary contributions, his 45.9 career faceoff winning percentage ranks 166th among active players to take at least 500 draws.
At 30, Anisimov is unlikely to turn things around in 2018-19, when his no-movement clause drops to a modified clause that allows him to be traded to one of 10 teams of his choice. Starting in 2019-20, the clause will be dropped altogether, and his underlying salary drops by $1.0 million per season. Moving Anisimov might be only a matter of time.
Verdict: Trade him; if not this summer, then at some point in the near future.
Connor Murphy
Cap hit: $3.85 million, expires 2021-22
In the salary-cap era, it's important to be careful with cap space commitments for depth players. Chicago has done a great job of that -- with one exception.
Since being acquired for Niklas Hjalmarsson on June 23, Murphy has averaged 15:45 minutes per game, which ranks ninth among the 10 defensemen Chicago has used this season. And yet, other than Keith and Seabrook, he is the only defenseman whose contract carries a cap hit greater than $1.0 million.
Instead of Murphy, the Blackhawks could try to sign a free agent such as Nick Holden, Greg Pateryn or Thomas Hickey for less than half his cap hit.
Verdict: Trade him.