After winning the President's Trophy with 120 points in 2015-16, and an initially promising 8-2-1 start to the 2016-17 season, the Capitals stumbled to a 5-5-2 record during the following month, and fell to fifth in the Metropolitan division; two straight overtime victories have lifted them to fourth as of Dec. 8.
Enthusiasm in Washington's chances of success haven't been this low in years. Four major statistical models -- Money Puck, Hockey Reference, Sports Club Stats and Playoff Status -- project Washington's chances of winning their first Stanley Cup in franchise history between 2.9 and 5.0 percent.
These models also project Washington's chances of missing the playoffs for just the second time in a decade somewhere between 24.3 and 44.7 percent. This means that the Capitals are perceived to be roughly 10 times more likely to miss the playoffs than to win the Stanley Cup. That's a surprisingly pessimistic view that is increasingly being shared by fans and pundits across the NHL with every passing (or narrowly escaped) loss.
This may have been a surprisingly humbling start to their season, but the underlying numbers still suggest that the Capitals remain the team to beat in the East this season.
The big picture
It's easy to lose perspective in professional sports. Yes, the Capitals had a rough month, and their offense may have sputtered behind Alex Ovechkin's top scoring line, but they still have some of the best goaltending in the NHL and are dominating the play at even strength.
In the period between Nov. 6 and Dec. 4, Washington's 12 standings points in 12 games was third-to-last in the NHL, ahead of only Colorado's nine points in 13 games and Buffalo's 11 points in 13 games. However, they remain first with 115 points in 82 games when expanding the view to the past 12 months. While the recent monthlong slump can't be dismissed out of hand, neither can the 11 months that came before it.
What happened to the Capitals in November? Sometimes a cold stretch can be a symptom of a greater problem, but a deep dive into their numbers reveals that they have been as dominant as ever, but simply ran into some bad puck luck.
So far this season, Washington is outshooting its opponents 1,065 to 960 at 5-on-5. That's a shot-attempt ratio of plus-105 through 25 games, and a shot-attempt percentage of 52.6 percent, both of which rank fifth in the NHL. That's a notable improvement over 2015-16, when they ranked No. 14 with a plus-147 over 82 games, and 51.0 percent.
A quick look at where the faceoffs occur in Washington's games confirms the extent to which they are controlling the play. So far, the Capitals have lined up for 385 faceoffs in the offensive zone at 5-on-5, and 311 in the defensive zone, for a league-leading zone-start percentage of 55.3 percent.
For those who are skeptical about shot-based metrics, just look at the team's goal differential at 5-on-5. So far this season, Washington is outscoring its opponents 43-32, which works out to 57.3 percent and ranks fourth in the NHL.
Great goaltending
The main reason that Washington's goal-based metrics are so exceptional is because of last season's Vezina trophy winner, Braden Holtby. Along with underrated backup Philipp Grubauer, Capitals goalies have combined to allow an average of just 2.24 goals per game, which ranks fifth in the NHL.
In the NHL, there's a short list of established elite goaltenders, including highly accomplished and decorated players like Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens and Henrik Lundqvist of the New York Rangers -- Holtby is no more than a single rung below them on the ladder.
Statistically, Holtby's career save percentage in even-strength situations is .930, which is second to Boston's Tuukka Rask among active goalies (minimum 50 games played). In all situations, his save percentage is .923 this season, which is between .920 and .923 for the fourth time in five seasons as the team's starter.
Last season, Holtby tied the legendary Martin Brodeur's single-season record for most wins in a season, with 48. While wins are more of a team statistic than a goalie stat, this achievement is indicative of Holtby's trademark consistency.
Holtby has recorded 154 quality starts in 256 games, for a career quality-start percentage of 60.2 percent, which ranks sixth among active goalies (minimum 70 starts). Even this season, the Capitals are 10-0-2 when Holtby has stopped at least 91 percent of the shots, and 2-6-0 when he hasn't.
While the Capitals' win totals have doubtless been boosted by their high scoring totals, Holtby's consistency gives them a chance to win on any given night and helps their win totals reach those record-setting levels.
Holtby's sensational play has the unfortunate side effect of hiding the contributions of Grubauer, one of the league's most underrated backups. In the rare instances where Holtby hasn't finished one of his starts, Grubauer has posted a .948 save percentage in relief during the previous three seasons, which ranks third among active goalies (minimum five relief appearances).
Including both starts and relief appearances, Grubauer's career .923 save percentage now ranks sixth among NHL goalies since 2012-13. Even if 37 starts isn't enough time to have complete confidence in Grubauer's numbers, his statistics in the AHL were also impressive; in 105 games from 2012-13 to 2014-15, he posted a .919 save percentage.
What needs to change
Simply put, the Capitals will become unstoppable once their struggling offense wakes up.
Washington's power play is currently chugging along at just 14.8 percent, which is down from 21.9 percent last season, and the team shooting percentage has dropped from 9.6 percent in 2015-16 to 8.2 percent this season. Both trends are already starting to reverse themselves.
Washington has always been able to rely on the top line, including Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. The duo (along with current linemate Marcus Johansson) have combined to score 31 of the team's 65 goals this season, but the team has not gotten production from elsewhere in the lineup.
The turning point for the Capitals' secondary lines may already have occurred. T.J. Oshie's return to the lineup allowed Ovechkin to be moved to a scoring-focused line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams, which has already started to pay off.
Kuznetsov, who led the team with 77 points in 82 games last season, and Williams, who scored 52 points in 2015-16, each scored just three points in 14 games during Washington's monthlong slump. In the past two games, both players have already matched those totals. Even defensive-minded depth players like Jay Beagle and Daniel Winnik have each contributed a couple of points in the past two games.
This could be the final piece that Washington needs to climb its way back up the Metropolitan division standings. If the NHL was a stock market, then this would be the right time to buy Washington Capitals stock on the cheap.