We're just days away from embarking on a very different kind of NHL season, and it was fascinating to see how this year's NHL Rank -- our predictive ranking of the top 100 players for 2020-21 -- played out. But it also got me thinking: How different will this list look in five years?
As a hockey prospects guy, I'm always looking ahead. Seeing names like Elias Pettersson, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen and Carter Hart in the top 40 is particularly exciting, given that they are all still young and will only continue to get better. It's also a reminder that as more players like them come into the league and establish themselves, these lists are going to continue to change. So let's get a head start.
Who will the best players be when we prep for the 2025-26 season? Will Connor McDavid still be the No. 1 name? How will Sidney Crosby rank? Could Andrei Vasilevskiy still be the top goalie, or will the aforementioned Hart land the honor? So let's skip down the road a bit and answer some of the bigger questions about how a ranking of the NHL's 100 best players would look in five years' time.
Who will be the NHL's top player entering the 2025-26 season?
It's hard to see it being anyone else other than Connor McDavid. Even knowing the talent of the next wave of players that is coming, there's not one that I see knocking McDavid off that pedestal. While a player's prime scoring years are usually in his early 20s, McDavid will likely have an extended prime.
The league has not caught up to his speed yet, and you have to figure the Oilers' center will only become an even more complete player over the next five seasons, similar to the way Sidney Crosby did over the course of his career. You also have to consider that McDavid has somehow increased his production in every season he has played in the NHL. He has never been below a point per game in his career, and that figure has jumped for him every year since he was drafted in 2015.
McDavid's reign as the best in the world should be a long one, even though we'll see others start to get closer as he gets older. Auston Matthews and Elias Pettersson have the chance to be right in that mix.
Verdict: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Who will be the top defenseman in five seasons?
Let's dive into positional breakdowns. McDavid would double as the top forward, but what about defense? This is by far the toughest question to answer here because the next wave of young defensemen in the NHL is really, really good. For one, Blue Jackets d-man Seth Jones (No. 19) will be turning 31 years old and probably still will be among the elites. You look at how Victor Hedman looks at 30 years old, and you can see how the elite defensemen stay elite for a long time.
I certainly think Jones is one of the more likely to stay in the conversation for best defenseman in the world five years from now. But when you look at the exceptional start to Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar's career and the way he plays the game, it's hard not to envision him at the top. Vancouver's Quinn Hughes and Dallas' Miro Heiskanen deserve equal consideration.
Let's also not forget about Rasmus Dahlin, the No. 1 pick in 2018 and the No. 56 player in this year's rank. Back-to-back 40-plus-point seasons are nothing to balk at. He's still only 20 years old and will continue to get better. It's going to require the Sabres to get better around him so the team isn't always chasing the puck, but Dahlin has the skill level and physical tools to be among the elites, and I fully expect him to be a top-five defenseman in the league.
That said, I think it's going to come down to Hughes (No. 28) vs. Makar (No. 22). I think both of them are the future of defense in the NHL. Makar has an advantage in physical tools and speed. Hughes has an advantage in skill and creativity. And they both have exceptional hockey sense. As the game gets faster, they'll only get better.
What about Heiskanen? The Stars' blueliner (No. 37) plays in a way that will never go out of style. He's Hedman-like in his smoothness and has elite skating ability. The difference is the offensive toolkits of Makar and Hughes are more indicative of where the game is going as opposed to where it is right now.
I'd predict Heiskanen and Jones will have a Norris Trophy on their mantles before it's all said and done. But I think Hughes and Makar are going to lead the next wave of mobile, offensive-minded defensemen into the future. And I'm leaning Makar over Hughes.
Verdict: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Who will be the top goalie in five seasons?
Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning is an exceptional goaltender. I've been watching his game grow since the first time I saw him when he was a lanky 16-year-old with fierce competitiveness. He deserves to be at or near the top of the goalie class right now. But the competition is coming.
Flyers goalie Carter Hart (No. 34) is the most likely to challenge Vasilevskiy (No. 5) on the mantle of top goaltender. He's only 22 years old now and already has two quality seasons and an excellent playoff performance under his belt. Vasilevskiy had an incredible start to his careers at a young age too, but Hart has had a little more responsibility early on, as Vasilevskiy started out sharing the net with Ben Bishop in Tampa Bay.
The real wild card: Igor Shesterkin (No. 92) of the Rangers. He is only a year younger than Vasilevskiy and three years older than Hart, so he's an old rookie coming into this season. However, he stepped into the league and was dominant over his first 12 NHL starts, going 10-2 with a .932 save percentage. We'll need to see more from him this season before declaring him the next big thing in goaltending, but he has to be in the mix.
This is such a volatile position prone to very wild swings in performance. It's easily the toughest to predict, but I think each of Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy and Hart will be in the hunt to be the top goaltender in the NHL five years down the line.
Verdict: Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers
Where will Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin fall?
They were the faces of the NHL for so long, and for a lot of people, they still are. The torch passing has started, however, as McDavid ascends to the top. In this year's top 100, Crosby ranked No. 8, while Ovechkin was No. 9. Even though they are starting the downward years of their careers, it's still a little jarring to see them even that low.
This is likely the trend, but not because they won't still be effective. With the way both continue to play right now, there's no doubt they're still going to be top-tier players in the NHL as they approach their 40s. The question for Crosby will be how much injuries take their toll over the course of time. The question for Ovechkin will be how much stamina he has to remain in North America and chase Wayne Gretzky's goal-scoring record. I think both will still be here in five years. They both have too much still to give.
By this time five years from now, I'd say they're still both in our top 30. There's no shame in that. They're still the greatest players of their generation and deserve the most credit for keeping the league relevant after two lockouts and other trials and tribulations. You can't stay the best forever, but it's really hard to be among the best as long as they both have been.
Verdict: Within the top 30
Who will be the top American player in five seasons?
Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (No. 7), Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck (No. 11) and Sabres center Jack Eichel (No. 13) are the top three American-born players on our top 100. It's a bit of a changing of the guard, with Patrick Kane sliding in at No. 15.
Matthews will likely be closing in on 400 goals as he enters the 2025-26 season, and could even already be beyond that mark. Mike Modano scored the most goals ever by an American-born player with 561. Matthews seems the most likely to surpass that mark, while Kane is likely to surpass Modano's 1,374 points as the all-time leading scorer among Americans in NHL history. While Kane will still be a top player, Matthews is becoming the face of American hockey while in a Canadian market.
His toughest competition at this point appears to come from Eichel, who continues to produce at a high rate despite the lack of competitiveness of the Sabres. The two are only a year apart and could have some great battles over the course of their careers. Matthews, however, appears to be a generational goal-scoring talent among American-born players, and that likely puts him over the top.
Verdict: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
How will recent high draft picks who didn't make this year's list fit into the mix in five seasons?
Let's do some quick-hitters here and tackle a few names from the NHL drafts of the past few years.
Devils center Jack Hughes, who was not in the top 100 for 2020-21, will be a top-20 player by 2025-26. He had a disappointing rookie season, but having watched him for the last three years, he's a quick study. His physical profile isn't going to allow him to outright dominate until he gets stronger -- and that takes time. But his skill, speed and hockey sense are all at an elite level. No player had ever jumped directly from the U.S. National Team Development Program to the NHL, so there's really no precedent to which Hughes can compare. He's a special talent, and the best is yet to come.
Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere is going to be on this list in a major way in five years, though it might be a bit tougher for him to significantly impact the game enough to be considered a top-10 player because he's behind Artemi Panarin on the New York left wing depth chart for the foreseeable future. I do, however, think he's going to be in the mix as a top 20-30 guy.
Ducks center Trevor Zegras, who just had a spectacular World Junior Championship, will indeed be in the top 100 five years from now. He's an excellent playmaker, and his skill is going to allow him to be especially productive. The top 50 might be though, though, on a Ducks team that still has a bit of a rebuild ahead of it.
Others to watch include Kings center Quinton Byfield, Senators winger Tim Stuetzle and Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov. Byfield has a mountain of upside, Stuetzle will be one of the quicker players in the NHL right away and Kaprizov was already dominant in the KHL before finally making the jump to the NHL. Kaprizov has top-20 upside, while Byfield and Stuetzle will likely slide into top-30 or top-40 spots.
There's one player well outside of the NHL that I'll be watching closely these next two years: Shane Wright, who is the early projected No. 1 pick for the 2022 NHL draft. The Kingston Frontenacs center had 1.14 points per game, which is the second-highest mark by a 15-year-old in the OHL's history. McDavid averaged 1.05 points at the same age. Wright is physically stronger than McDavid was at the same age, so it's hard to know exactly how much will translate, but he's trending toward being an instant impact NHL player. I would not bet against him being high on this list five years down the road.
Who will be the biggest risers from this year's list?
By this time in five years, I think you'll see each of Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (No. 56), Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov (No. 88) and Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin (No. 92) as top-25 players in the game.
Svechnikov, in particular, is going to be on the rise over each of the next three seasons. His year-to-year progression over his first two NHL seasons was phenomenal, and I think he'll routinely score 30 or more goals as he enters his prime. His playmaking skills are underrated, and as he gets stronger, he's only going to get tougher to handle because he's already quite sturdy. Experience is really the only thing he lacks at this point. His physical strength, skill and elite shooting ability will allow him to become one of the very best wingers in the game, and I think he's going to be a top-15 player by 2025-26.
Dahlin's brilliance has been understated while Buffalo works to regain respectability. But to have had two 40-point seasons before his 20th birthday is outrageous. He managed the transition from Europe to the NHL as well as any teenager I've seen and will only continue to get better as he fills out his big frame. Everything about his game screams elite.
Shesterkin has been a monster in the KHL for years, and he cruised through his North American transition as well as any goalie could -- even better than Vasilevskiy, who was impressive right out of the gates. Shesterkin has never been anything short of brilliant in his past five seasons, and that will continue as he becomes a central figure in the Rangers' resurgence post-rebuild.
Other likely risers include Matthew Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Charlie McAvoy, William Nylander, Brock Boeser, Ivan Provorov and Kevin Fiala.
Who will be the biggest fallers from this year's list?
I hate doing this kind of thing, but if we're going to look at who will be good in five years, we also have to look at players who are more likely to tail off. Three pop to mind.
Lightning center Steven Stamkos is at No. 30 this year, and I fear that the toll of his injuries will be too great for him to sustain success into his mid-30s. He has been one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, but we've already seen his numbers dip in that regard, and he's set to be surpassed on the Tampa Bay depth chart. I don't think he outright leaves the top 100 in five years, but I do think he'll be quite lower next time around.
Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask came in at No. 32 this year. It's amazing how consistent he has been, but with this being the last year of his contract, one wonders how much longer Rask will remain in the league. He's certainly good enough to play into his late-30s, but I don't know if his role will be as substantial in the next five years, thus likely dropping him out of the top 100.
Finally, Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 46) is another player who has battled injuries, and age will also start catching up to him. His points-per-game have gone down in every one of the past five seasons, and his mobility isn't where it was. I'm not sure Karlsson will still be on the list five years down the road.
Other potential fallers include Mark Giordano, Shea Weber, Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner.