Three months ago, Alexis Lafreniere completed his run as "hockey's next big thing" by being drafted at No. 1 in the 2020 NHL draft by the New York Rangers. But now, with the 2020-21 season upon us and the 2021 NHL draft just under seven months away, we're turning the page to a new crop of talented prospects. That begins with the 2021 class, but we're also taking an early peek at who might stand out in the 2022 and 2023 drafts.
The interesting thing about the next three drafts? Of the three, this year's has the least amount of certainty at No. 1 overall. There is a true wide-open race for the top pick in 2021, compounded by the uneven starts to this season, with some of the top competitors still waiting for the OHL and WHL seasons to commence.
So who is the likeliest candidate to go first overall in July? Who are his biggest challengers? And who is the favorite to earn that honor in the two drafts that follow? In order to get the lay of the land for hockey's future, we answer some of the biggest questions about the very top of the three coming draft classes.
Who is leading the race for No. 1 in the 2021 NHL draft?
That would be Owen Power out of the University of Michigan. The 6-foot-5, 214-pounder is a highly mobile defenseman with terrific hockey sense. He was the No. 1 prospect on my first draft ranking for the class, largely due to the body of work he had coming into this season.
Power was the USHL's Defenseman of the Year at age 17. He had 40 points in 45 games for the Chicago Steel, which was on pace for a record-shattering campaign. His team was stacked with first-rounder Brendan Brisson, second-rounder Sam Colangelo and a host of other draft picks dotting the lineup, but it was clear that Power was a driver on that team, dictating so much of the game from the back end.
In 10 games so far this season for the Wolverines, Power has four points. It's the potential that is really driving the hype around him, as he is having more of an up-and-down start at Michigan. You want to see No. 1 guys dominate and take over games, and Power hasn't quite gotten there yet. But that doesn't mean he won't as he adjusts to the college game.
The raw tools are really intriguing. He has the size and the range. Power can get physical and defends really well, with a long reach and high-end footwork. Offensively, he's so smooth and confident with the puck. Power makes good decisions and finds ways to create.
Who could challenge him for the top spot?
Depending on who you ask, you might get five or six different answers. Power is the clear front-runner at the moment, but there are certainly others who could have a say before it's all over. Here are some of the most common, in alphabetical order:
Matthew Beniers, C, University of Michigan: If you've been watching the World Junior Championship, you're already familiar with Beniers. A speedy, gritty center with skill, he is making a stronger case to challenge his Michigan teammate. Beniers would not be your traditional No. 1, but he does so many things well that in this crowded draft year, it's hard to rule him out. He might be one of the few instant-impact players available in this class.
Brandt Clarke, D, Barrie Colts: After averaging 0.67 points per game from the blue line as a 16-year-old last season, Clarke found himself in elite company with the sixth-best points-per-game total for a under-17 defenseman in the OHL in the past 20 years. Every player ahead of him on that list is an NHL player or high-end prospect.
Simon Edvinsson, D, Frolunda: I'm not as high on Edvinsson as some, but he's gaining a lot of buzz based on his performance in the early-going of this season in Sweden. He also got the call up to Frolunda's pro team from the under-20 ranks and has appeared in six SHL games so far as a 17-year-old. He has skill and good mobility, and his raw potential is attractive for NHL teams.
William Eklund, LW, Djugardens: While the other players in this group have been in the discussion for a little while, Eklund is a bit of a late addition. He forced his way into the conversation by putting together a spectacular season in the SHL. He would have been on Sweden's World Juniors team, but a positive COVID-19 test knocked him out of the tournament. Through 22 games in the SHL -- mostly playing alongside New Jersey Devils first-rounder Alexander Holtz -- Eklund has 0.64 points per game. The only Swedes who had better per-game averages in their draft years are Daniel Sedin, Peter Forsberg and Henrik Sedin. Eklund's chances to be the top pick took a major hit Monday, however, when it was revealed he had to have an emergency appendectomy that will keep him out of action for at least a month.
Dylan Guenther, LW, Edmonton Oil Kings: The WHL Rookie of the Year a season ago, Guenther averaged more than a point per game as a 16-year-old. He has skill and speed, with a particularly explosive second gear that allows him to get behind defenses. The only problem at this point is that the WHL has yet to begin its season, and Guenther is likely to have a more limited audition for NHL scouts.
Luke Hughes, D, U.S. National Under-18 Team: The last of the spectacular Hughes brothers is on the way. COVID-19 has really disrupted the National Team Development Program's schedule, but Hughes is producing at a high rate from the blue line and has shown the ability to at least challenge for the top spot. He's probably one of the longer shots, but it's hard to deny the similarities in his skating ability to older brother Quinn, although Luke checks in at 6-foot-2, taller than both of his brothers. As mobile defensemen take over the NHL, Luke looks to be cut from the same cloth.
What is the biggest challenge of evaluating this draft class?
It's pretty obvious. COVID-19 hangs over this season ominously. It has prevented the WHL and OHL from starting. The QMJHL had to take an extended break. The USHL has had game cancellations left and right. College hockey is inconsistent throughout conferences. And largely able to play through these months, European leagues have seen plenty of pauses.
The inconsistency of game action, an inability to see many games in person and lingering questions about how much this year has to be graded on a curve are things every scout has to evaluate and consider. There has been little to no chance for any player to push himself into the spotlight and stand out above the rest. If the rest aren't playing, there's nothing to compare.
The risk of the WHL or OHL never getting off the ground this season remains very real, too. With a July draft on the schedule, those players might only end up getting 25-30 games. There's also fewer showcase events for the players to separate themselves, including top prospect games in all of the leagues and international tournaments where players often compete in front of large gatherings of scouts.
How are players coping with it?
Many of the European players haven't suffered too harsh of consequences for this season. Most of their leagues have played games, and if scouts aren't at the games live, they have enough video to give them something to evaluate. Likewise, many American prospects are playing in either the USHL or college hockey, and they have been able to play at least some games so far.
But it's been a lot tougher for the Canadians. Many prospects have had no choice but to sit and wait. Others have taken the drastic step to travel abroad to play.
Clarke is an example of a player with high expectations for the draft but no chance to make good on them right now. His league, the OHL, remains paused with an indefinite start date. He managed to catch on with a club in Slovakia's pro league and play there until the OHL season resumes.
Carson Lambos, a top defenseman in the WHL and a contender to be a top-10 pick, went to Finland and has played at the under-18 and under-20 levels there for the past few months until he can return to action with the Winnipeg Ice. Some other WHL players, including Guenther, attempted to play in Junior A leagues that had started in Canada and had little to no cross-provincial travel. He got five games in with the Sherwood Park Crusaders before the Alberta Junior Hockey League was shut down by provincial health protocols.
OK, let's look ahead. Who is the front-runner for the top pick in the 2022 draft?
This picture is weirdly clearer than the 2021 draft, at least at this point. Shane Wright, a center with the Kingston Frontenacs, could have some competition as next season progresses, but he's certainly the clubhouse leader.
Having entered the OHL a year early as an "exceptional status" player, Wright exceeded expectations. Only one player who entered the OHL as a 15-year-old had a higher points-per-game rate than Wright: John Tavares. Yes, that means Wright's per-game average as an exceptional status player was even higher than Connor McDavid's rate. He also scored 15 more goals than McDavid at the same age -- in five fewer games. Wright was also dominant as 15-year-old at the U17 Hockey Challenge, putting up seven points in five games for Canada Black. The only Canadians who did better at the same age all went No. 1 overall (Tavares, McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon).
Additionally, he performed at a high level on a Kingston squad that had really struggled the prior year, too. After the Frontenacs finished dead last in the OHL, they made a 12-point improvement in the standings and clinched a playoff spot before the season was shut down, with Wright leading them in scoring.
For young players like Wright, now 17 years old, it's difficult to know how much going almost a year between games will impact them. The OHL still hasn't started, and it remains unclear when or if it will be able to resume, as health protocols continue to tighten amid rising cases throughout the U.S. and Canada.
Still, Wright has access to the best of the best in terms of training and coaching. A lot of the high-end major junior players get assistance from their player agencies to stay on track. Wright appears to be a driven, committed individual who wants to be the very best. He's trending in the right direction and looks poised to be the No. 1 guy for the 2022 class.
Who are Wright's challengers?
There are a few players who could at least make Wright sweat. The most notable is playing in the World Junior Championship and making enough noise to create a contested race for No. 1: Brad Lambert.
A forward for JYP in the Finnish Liiga, Lambert made his pro debut last season and has been a regular this year, having just turned 17 in December. He was a dominant player in Finland's under-20 leagues prior to that. Now with Finland at the World Juniors, Lambert is a leading offensive player. He has tremendous speed and hockey sense that allows him to exploit defenses. Lambert has a good shot and is an excellent passer, too. As he gets stronger, he will be harder and harder to take the puck from, as he knows how to use his body to extend plays.
Lambert is a dual Canadian-Finnish citizen (his father is from Saskatchewan). But now that he has played for Finland internationally, that's who he'll represent going forward. It might be the best Canadian import for the country since the game of hockey itself.
Aside from Lambert, you should know the name Matthew Savoie. Savoie was denied exceptional status to the WHL, but the league allowed him to play an extended schedule of games at the WHL level. He appeared in 22 for the Winnipeg Ice and recorded seven assists. Savoie is an absolutely electric skater with skill. He is overmatched physically at times, but as he gets stronger, he has the skill level to really pop. With both the WHL and AJHL currently stalled, Savoie will be joining the USHL's Dubuque Fighting Saints in hopes of getting a chance to progress further this season.
What about the 2023 class? Anyone stand out as the potential No. 1 guy?
This is where things get really fun. A lot can happen between now and 2023, but there are a few players who have already made waves and are expected to be among the best of the best in what should be another solid draft class. Three guys appear to be the early favorites to headline the group.
First, there's Connor Bedard, a center with the Regina Pats of the WHL and HV-71 in the Sweden U20 league. The first-ever player to be awarded exceptional status by the WHL, Bedard is awaiting his rookie season in Western Canada's top junior circuit. The North Vancouver, British Columbia native has spent some time training and playing with HV-71's U20 and U18 teams in Sweden, and he is the only 15-year-old who has gotten into game action in Sweden's top junior league (four points in four games).
Bedard absolutely flies, his puck skills are so smooth, and he has a deceptive shot release. His confidence with the puck on his stick is notable, and the maturity in his game is especially evident.
Also in the mix is Matvei Michkov, a right wing for SKA-1946 St. Petersburg in the MHL. It has been a while since we've seen a Russian sensation challenge for No. 1 overall, but Michkov looks like he could be next one. The 16-year-old is torching the MHL, Russia's top under-20 league, averaging better than a point-per-game. Only Nikita Kucherov had a higher points-per-game average as a under-17 player in the league, and if you only take Michkov's numbers with his current team, he's actually ahead of Kucherov. The most staggering statistic, however, is Michkov's 21 goals in 33 games. He's on pace to shatter Kucherov's under-17 record of 29.
Michkov is so creative, and he darts in and out of defenders while always having an understanding of how to get to the net. He can score from distance, but he can also get his nose dirty and score from in tight. He is a menace with the puck on his stick, and if he gets a little bigger and a little stronger, his claim on the top spot in 2023 may only tighten.
Lastly, Chicago Steel center Adam Fantilli has a chance to be the top name. He made the unique decision as a top Canadian player to spend the past few years in the U.S., playing prep hockey at Kimball-Union in New Hampshire last season and signing a tender to play for the Steel this season. He could choose to play college hockey, but it's worth nothing that his OHL draft rights are with the Saginaw Spirit.
Fantilli started the season unable to play due to injury but has gotten into 10 USHL games so far. He has good size, skates exceptionally well and has the hand skills to challenge defenses. His numbers haven't popped yet, but he's coming off of a long layoff and making a really big leap from prep to junior hockey at 16 years old. Keep any eye out for him as he progresses.