The wait is over. As the Toronto Maple Leafs begin training camp ahead of the 2019-20 season, the negotiations with restricted free agent Mitch Marner have finally resulted in a new contract: six years, with a $10.893 million average annual value.
That gives the Leafs three forwards with AAVs in eight figures (Marner joins Auston Matthews and John Tavares) but ends the drama at a much earlier date than William Nylander, the last RFA with which the Leafs had a sometimes-acrimonious negotiation.
Who comes out ahead? Glad you asked. Here's our grade for Marner's new pact:
The player: Mitch Marner, RW
The terms: Six years, $10.893 million AAV
Does the deal make sense?
None of this makes sense, and yet it ultimately makes a lot of sense. How's that for an answer?
By any logical metric applied to a restricted free-agent forward, this is a bonkers contract money-wise.
You might understand a young star center getting this kind of money, as Auston Matthews ($11.634 million AAV) did on a five-year term earlier this year. But Marner is a 22-year-old right wing.
You might understand an elite, goal-scoring winger getting this kind of money. But Marner isn't one, as his goals-per-game average over the past three seasons -- the first three of his career -- ranks him tied for 78th in the NHL with Jakob Silfverberg of the Anaheim Ducks, whose annual cap hit is $5.25 million. His goal-scoring season was last year, with 26 -- or one more than Brock Nelson of the New York Islanders (cap hit: $6 million).
You might understand an elite, playmaking winger getting this kind of money, and there's both a case for Marner being one, with the 24th-best points-per-game average over the past three seasons, and not being one, as Andrew Berkshire of Sportsnet noted that his numbers aren't exponentially better than those of his restricted free-agent peers.
The number crunchers at Evolving Wild thought that a six-year term for Marner should have resulted in a $8,883,325 cap hit. Instead, Marner is the third-highest-paid member of the Leafs via the cap, behind Matthews and John Tavares ($11 million); he is now the seventh-highest in the NHL among all players and is second only to New York Rangers free-agent signee Artemi Panarin ($11,642,857) among wingers, as far as cap number.
The projections on what Marner should have gotten were based on comparables around the NHL. Such as Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, for example, who makes $8.5 million against the cap. But what made Marner's negotiation unique -- and that is a polite way of putting it -- was its singular focus on the Leafs' economics and total dismissal of the rest of the NHL's.
Matthews got his money. Tavares got his money. Marner was going to get his money. It's like walking into a car dealership, ignoring the sticker price and just declaring what you're going to pay for the vehicle. Of course, a car dealership will just tell you to buzz off and start negotiating with the next customer. The Toronto Maple Leafs thought Marner was an essential piece in their Stanley Cup puzzle, and they paid the price.
The money is nuts. Let's be real. But the Leafs got the term they were looking for, extending Marner one season beyond Matthews to avoid a complete contractual migraine in 2024. It's a contract that gobbles up two seasons of unrestricted free agency. It's a contract that might -- might -- look better in a few years if the NHL salary cap continues to climb and inflates a bit more when the U.S. television rights are renegotiated.
But the real win for the Maple Leafs is in the short term, because Mitch Marner is signed for this season, and that's frankly where the focus for general manager Kyle Dubas should be. The window to win a Stanley Cup was wide open last season, before the Boston Bruins slammed it shut in Round 1. The window is propped open again this season, but who knows after that? For example, the Leafs have Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie on their blue line this season, and both are unrestricted free agents next summer -- part of the seven defensemen who need new deals next year. So that entire unit could be revamped, and Dubas & Co. will need to do so with the constraints that Marner's new deal brings to the cap.
Could they have traded Marner to end this stalemate and not hand out that contract? Sure, but if Dubas believes he had a championship roster on his hands, that's a setback. They're a better team on the ice with Mitch Marner than without him.
So this is a win for the Leafs because they're doing the thing hockey fans beg their teams to do, which is to sign dynamic, young players to big-money contracts rather than throw that money at aging assets. (Yes, we can debate whether the John Tavares deal falls into that latter category.) The Leafs are spending $22.527 million annually for the next five years on two elite forwards who are 22 and 21.
Philosophically, this is how it should work. Toronto is going to have to manage its roster on an annual basis more than, say, Nashville does with its low-cap, long-term deals. But it can be done, and building around Matthews, Marner and Tavares isn't the worst starting point.
Yet, it's not a total victory for Toronto. Whether it was because of the contracts given out earlier or an inability to apply the right pressure points -- heck, public sentiment only just started to turn on Marner -- the Leafs met an illogical price tag their player had written out and tied to his skate.
Overall Grade: B