The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames swapped contract problems, as winger Milan Lucic waived his no-movement clause for a trade for winger James Neal.
Oilers get: RW James Neal
Flames get: RW Milan Lucic, conditional third-round pick in 2020
Edmonton Oilers: A-
Three words: "Change of scenery"
As a Flame, James Neal looked nothing like the player who scored 20 or more goals in every season he'd previously spent in the NHL. Part of that was an injury that took him out for 19 games, but most of it was simply lack of production. His previous lowest shooting percentage in a season was 10.4; it was 5.0 in 63 games with Calgary last season. His previous low for goals in a full season was 22; he scored seven last season. For eight seasons, he had a better Corsi for percentage relative to his teammates; last season, it was in the negative. His individual expected goals at 5-on-5 was never below 10 before last season, when it was 7.94.
And so on.
What were the catalysts for this decline? Maybe leaving Las Vegas, which Neal grew to like but which had moved on from him went he went unrestricted. Maybe the contract expectations. Most likely, as has been widely reported, it was friction with new Flames coach Bill Peters, who scratched him for a pivotal Game 5 against the Colorado Avalanche in Calgary's first-round playoff loss.
Dave Tippett, the new Oilers coach, had Neal in Dallas for the winger's rookie season, so there's some familiarity there.
The Oilers need better offensive depth, or at least better than Lucic was providing. There's the potential for that with Neal. Yes, four years of term is a risky addition for a player coming off his worst campaign as a pro. But the lack of trade protection means this is less of an anchor than Lucic's deal.
But let's be honest: Getting Lucic off the cap is worth an A-grade alone. Playing on one of the worst free-agent deals of the cap era, Lucic has been in production decline -- especially in comparison with the expectations of his $6 million average annual value -- and has looked like a player whose tempo doesn't sync up with the current NHL. GM Ken Holland had to find a way to offload a toxic contract given to him by his predecessor. Given the narrow possibilities -- from anteing up a first-rounder in a deal with Lucic, to taking back someone like Loui Eriksson in return from Vancouver -- this might have been the best option he could find, given the former Bruin's no-movement clause.
Heck, at the very least, the Flames can offer up Neal in the Seattle expansion draft, whereas they were shackled by Lucic's movement restrictions. Or they could buy out his contract, which doesn't have the $8.5 million in guaranteed signing bonus money that Lucic's does. (What was Peter Chiarelli thinking?)
And if Neal scores 30 goals with Connor McDavid feeding him the puck, well ...
Calgary Flames: C-
I'm trying to be open-minded here.
I'm looking at analysts like Micah Blake McCurdy, who rightfully note that Lucic still drives possession even as his offensive totals fell off a cliff, and that we could be misjudging a player who spent 167 minutes last season with Kyle Brodziak and Zack Kassian. (Of course, his numbers were still atrocious when he was on the wing of McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in previous seasons, but we digress.)
I'm looking at the abject disaster that was James Neal in Calgary, and the necessity for GM Brad Treliving to remove this red from his ledger at a time when Neal's stock was at its absolute nadir. As with Lucic, moving Neal could have cost Calgary an asset to make a deal happen. Instead the teams swapped problem for problem.
I'm looking at the slight cost savings of Edmonton retaining salary on Lucic's contract through 2023, and thinking every little bit helps the Flames in re-signing the likes of Sam Bennett, David Rittich and Matthew Tkachuk.
I'm looking at the Western Conference, and the St. Louis Blues, and recalling how the "heavy hockey" we all mock as archaic helped lead them to their first Stanley Cup; and how Treliving has signaled that toughness was something the Flames needed in approaching next season.
I'm looking beyond that atrocious cap hit at what Lucic provides. As bad as Neal was offensively last season, he was worse defensively. As bad as Lucic is offensively, he's not going to embarrass himself in a bottom-six role defensively.
My initial reaction was, as it was for many, to drop the "D" hammer on this deal and call it a day. In fairness, there's enough here to keep its nose just above that level, I think. But it remains one of the worst contracts on the books in the NHL, and Calgary is now stuck with it through 2023, given the buyout provisions.
Lucic, in theory, checks some boxes the Flames need, while Neal had to go. But in the end, this is like getting rid of your headache by giving yourself a migraine.